Alcoa Corporation (AA)
POSITIVEFundamental
70
Price
$50.53
Market Cap
$13.61B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Alcoa mines bauxite ore, refines it into alumina, and smelts alumina into primary aluminum metal and cast products, selling at each stage both to outside customers and to its own downstream operations. It is one of the world's largest bauxite miners and alumina refiners, with mines and refineries concentrated in Australia and Brazil, and it sells into a global commodity market where prices are set by the London Metal Exchange rather than by the company itself.
How it makes money
Alcoa sells alumina and aluminum at prices tied to global commodity benchmarks — the LME for aluminum, an index-linked formula for alumina — so revenue moves with world metal prices far more than with anything the company controls directly. Its own smelters are the largest buyer of its alumina, absorbing about a third of shipments, which links the two segments' fortunes together even as each also sells to outside customers on its own contracts and spot deals.
Revenue by segment
Primary aluminum metal and cast products from Alcoa's smelters, priced off the London Metal Exchange; the larger and faster-growing segment in 2025 on higher realized prices.
Bauxite mining and alumina refining, sold to outside customers and to Alcoa's own aluminum smelters, which take roughly a third of shipments; priced off an index tied to aluminum.
Competitive moat
Cost advantage · NarrowAlcoa's alumina refineries sit in the lowest-cost quartile of the global industry and its smelters in the second quartile, backed by mining roughly 90% of its bauxite in low-cost Australia and Brazil. That position lets it stay profitable through price troughs that squeeze higher-cost rivals, though it still sells a commodity at a market price it cannot set.
What drives demand
CyclicalAlcoa states that the aluminum industry is highly cyclical, with prices set by worldwide supply and demand on the London Metal Exchange, while its own key input costs such as power can lag falling metal prices by months. Revenue and margins therefore swing with the global commodity cycle rather than with any steady pattern of its own end-customer demand.
Key risks
- Cyclical alumina and aluminum prices — The company states that aluminum industry pricing is highly cyclical and subject to worldwide supply and demand, and that its own key smelting input costs can lag falling metal prices by up to three months, compressing margins in a downturn.
- Energy costs — Alcoa's mining, refining and smelting operations consume substantial electricity and natural gas, and the company states that significant increases in energy costs could hurt its results.
- Internal concentration in Alumina sales — The largest customer for the company's smelter-grade alumina is its own aluminum smelters, which took about 34% of total alumina shipments in 2025, tying that segment's fortunes to Alcoa's own downstream operations rather than to a diversified outside customer base.
The case for
Buyers argue that Alcoa's low-cost bauxite mining and first-quartile alumina refineries let it stay profitable through price cycles that squeeze higher-cost competitors, that 2025's third-party revenue grew 8% on higher aluminum prices, and that its scale in Australia and Brazil gives it a durable cost edge as the industry consolidates.
The case against
Sellers worry that Alcoa is a price-taker in a commodity market it cannot control, that a downturn in LME aluminum or alumina index prices would hit revenue and margins directly regardless of cost position, and that rising energy costs at its power-intensive smelters and refineries could erode its low-cost advantage over time.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on August 23, 2026 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
Rio Tinto is the competitor Alcoa names across all three of its businesses, mining bauxite, refining alumina and smelting primary aluminum for the same third-party industrial buyers worldwide.
Norsk Hydro is the other large Western integrated producer, selling alumina and low-carbon primary aluminum to the same European and North American customers Alcoa serves.
Chalco is the dominant Chinese bauxite, alumina and aluminum producer, and its refining capacity sets the price Alcoa's third-party alumina must compete against on the seaborne market.
Century Aluminum is the other major primary aluminum smelter operator in the United States, competing directly for the same domestic rolling, extrusion and casting customers.
EGA is one of the largest primary aluminum producers outside China and competes with Alcoa for the same export volumes into Europe, Asia and, through its planned Oklahoma smelter, the United States.
Rusal is the largest primary aluminum producer outside China and a longstanding rival for the same global metal customers, though sanctions have narrowed where its tonnes can go.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$13.60B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$1.28B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$567M
Total Equity
$6.12B
Total Liabilities
$9.94B
Current Ratio
1.53
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.96
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$45.89
Current Price
$50.53
Margin of Safety
-10.1%
Fair Value Range
$29.83 - $61.95
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
10.27
ROE
18.9%
P/B Ratio
1.77
P/FCF
37.03
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
12.9%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (17)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 6.33%
- P/B Ratio 1.77
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 19.2%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 6.7%
- Analyst Consensus 73% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 28.8%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.82
- Net Margin Trend 9.4% vs 7.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (4)
- P/FCF 37.03
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Share Dilution 14.7%
Unavailable (6)
- ROIC NaN%
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Moderate: some gap between profits and cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. William F. Oplinger | President, CEO & Director | 58 |
| Ms. Molly S. Beerman | Executive VP & CFO | 61 |
| Mr. Matthew T. Reed | Executive VP & COO | 52 |
| Mr. Andrew J.A Hastings | Executive VP & General Counsel | 50 |
| Mr. Renato Bacchi C.F.A. | Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer | 48 |
| Ms. Tammi A. Jones | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 45 |
| Ms. Heather Hudak | Senior Vice President of Tax | - |
| Mr. Louis Langlois CPA | Senior Vice President of Treasury & Capital Markets | - |
| Mr. Andrew Estel | Senior Vice President of Strategy | - |
| Ms. Emily Olson | Executive VP & Chief External Affairs Officer | - |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
1
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for AA, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 7/16/2026NEGATIVEAlcoa Shares Tumble After Cyclone Cuts Into Alumina Output
Alcoa Corp. has lowered its alumina production forecast due to operational issues at its Australian refinery, which have impacted output. This development overshadows a quarter where increased aluminum prices boosted the company's revenue. The production cut signals potential supply chain disruptions and operational challenges that could affect future earnings. Investors will be closely monitoring the resolution of these issues and their impact on Alcoa's market position and profitability.
- 6/30/2026POSITIVEAlcoa Bets on Aluminum With $5.6 Billion South32 Deal
Alcoa Corp. is set to acquire South32 Ltd.'s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets across Australia, Brazil, and South Africa for up to $5.6 billion. This strategic move significantly bolsters Alcoa's standing as a global leader in aluminum production, anticipating robust long-term demand for the metal. The acquisition is expected to enhance Alcoa's integrated supply chain and market position, offering investors a strengthened profile in the aluminum sector.
- 6/10/2026NEGATIVEAlcoa Shares Drop as Firm Warns Alumina Unit Is ‘Underwater’
Alcoa Corp. shares experienced a significant decline following a stark warning from a company executive regarding its alumina business. The division is reportedly 'underwater,' incurring losses attributed to ongoing energy disruptions and the critical near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These geopolitical and operational challenges are directly impacting Alcoa's profitability in a key segment. Investors are likely reassessing the company's near-term earnings potential and operational resilience in light of these adverse conditions.
- 4/19/2026NEUTRALAluminum giant Alcoa to sell dormant smelter to Bitcoin miner NYDIG: Report
Alcoa Corporation is reportedly in advanced talks to sell its dormant Massena East aluminum smelter to New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), a Bitcoin mining firm. This potential transaction highlights a growing trend of US industrial sites being repurposed for energy-intensive digital asset operations and AI data centers. While the sale of an idle asset could be viewed positively for Alcoa's balance sheet, the strategic implications for the broader aluminum market and Alcoa's future operational focus remain unclear. The deal's impact on Alcoa's stock will depend on the sale price and how it aligns with the company's long-term strategy.
- 4/16/2026NEUTRALAlcoa Reports Q1 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcript
Alcoa Corporation released its Q1 2026 earnings call transcript on April 16, 2026. The document provides a detailed account of the company's financial performance and strategic discussions during the quarter. While the transcript itself is informational, it does not contain immediate financial figures or forward-looking statements that would directly impact the stock price. Investors will need to analyze the content of the transcript for specific insights into operational efficiency, market conditions, and future guidance that could affect Alcoa's valuation.
- 3/30/2026POSITIVEAlcoa Surges 11% After Iran Claims Aluminum Plant Attacks
Alcoa Corporation experienced an 11% surge in its stock price following reports of attacks on an aluminum plant in Iran. While the direct link to Alcoa's operations is not explicitly detailed, the market appears to be reacting to potential supply disruptions in the global aluminum market. Prediction markets indicate less than a 50% probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening before June, suggesting ongoing geopolitical tensions could impact energy and commodity flows. Investors are likely factoring in potential price increases for aluminum due to these supply-side concerns, driving the significant intraday gain for Alcoa.
via Markets Gazette