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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)

NEUTRAL
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationUnited States

Fundamental

64

Price

$282.69

Market Cap

$112.43B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

ADP runs the payroll, tax filing, benefits administration and HR software that other companies use to pay and manage their own employees. It also lets small and mid-sized businesses outsource their entire employment relationship to ADP through a professional employer organization: ADP becomes the legal employer of record for a client's staff, handling payroll, benefits and compliance so the client does not have to build that infrastructure itself.

How it makes money

Employer Services earns recurring fees for processing payroll and running HR software, priced mostly per employee. PEO Services bills clients for the wages, benefits and administrative fee of the worksite employees it co-employs, which makes its reported revenue much larger relative to its actual profit. A third, smaller and more volatile source is interest earned on client payroll funds ADP holds briefly before paying employees — $1.19 billion in fiscal 2025, up 16% as interest rates stayed elevated.

Revenue by segment

Employer Services67.5%

Payroll processing, tax filing, HR software and related services sold to employers of every size, from small businesses to large multinationals.

PEO Services32.5%

Co-employment services for about 748,000 worksite employees, where ADP becomes the employer of record and handles payroll, benefits and compliance for small and mid-sized clients.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Wide

Payroll and HR software become deeply integrated with a client's time-tracking, benefits and tax-compliance processes, and switching providers risks payroll errors and compliance penalties, so clients rarely move once onboarded — fiscal 2025 client revenue retention reached 92.1%. Decades of scale also let ADP spread compliance expertise across all fifty US states and dozens of countries in a way smaller rivals struggle to match.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Employer Services revenue scales with the number of employees processed and wage growth, so it softens when hiring slows and companies shed staff in a downturn, but does not collapse the way a purely discretionary business would. The interest income on client funds is a separate, purely rate-driven swing factor: it rose with elevated interest rates in recent years and would fall if rates come down.

Key risks

  • Interest-rate sensitivity of float income — Interest earned on client funds reached $1.19 billion in fiscal 2025, up 16% as rates stayed elevated. A meaningful decline in interest rates would remove a tailwind that has boosted recent results.
  • Custody of client funds — ADP temporarily holds very large sums of client payroll money before disbursing it to employees, which creates operational, regulatory and reputational exposure if those funds are mismanaged or misappropriated.
  • Competition from newer HCM entrants — Cloud-native payroll and HR platforms compete on price and integration simplicity, particularly for smaller employers, pressuring ADP to keep modernizing legacy systems built up over decades.
  • Co-employment legal exposure — As the legal employer of record for PEO clients' worksite employees, ADP takes on joint-employer liability under labour and tax law across many jurisdictions, exposure a pure payroll processor would not have.

The case for

Buyers point to 92%-plus client retention built on decades of payroll switching-cost economics, a PEO business that keeps growing the number of worksite employees served, and float income that has been a real tailwind while rates stayed elevated.

The case against

Sellers note that the same float income is a two-edged sword that shrinks the moment rates fall, that cloud-native HCM rivals are undercutting legacy players on price and integration, and that the PEO co-employment model carries labour-law and liability exposure a pure payroll processor would not have.

Segment figures from fiscal year 2025Sources: ADP Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 Results

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on August 23, 2026 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 25.8Score: 65Market cap: $44.27B

Paychex is ADP's closest peer, selling outsourced payroll, HR administration and PEO co-employment to the same US small and mid-sized businesses, and it enlarged its mid-market overlap with ADP by acquiring Paycor in April 2025.

P/E: 24.4Score: 72Market cap: $10.32B

Paycom sells a single-database payroll and HCM platform to US mid-market employers, the same buyers ADP's Workforce Now serves, and competes deal by deal on the same payroll and time-and-attendance spend.

P/E: 31.0Score: 76Market cap: $8.14B

Paylocity competes for the same US mid-market payroll and HR-suite contracts as ADP, often reaching them through the same accountant and broker referral channels.

P/E: 62.0Score: 66Market cap: $43.81B

Workday is the main cloud HCM alternative for large and global employers, the segment ADP serves with Vantage HCM and Global Payroll, and the two compete for the same enterprise HR system-of-record budgets.

TriNet Group, Inc.TNET

TriNet is a professional employer organization competing directly with ADP TotalSource for US small businesses that outsource payroll, benefits and employment risk under a co-employment contract.

Rippling People Center, Inc.Not tracked

Rippling, still privately held, sells payroll, benefits and HR administration to US small and mid-sized companies and is one of the main platforms winning accounts away from ADP's core client base.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$21.95B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$4.41B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

-

Total Equity

$6.03B

Total Liabilities

$57.16B

Current Ratio

1.05

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

1.62

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Fairly Valued

Fair Value

$265.72

Current Price

$282.69

Margin of Safety

-6.4%

Fair Value Range

$215.21 - $316.22

Estimation Methods

Analyst Target:$287.27
DCF:$296.08
PE-based:$234.38
Graham Growth:$323.00
EPV:$125.16
Analyst Consensus:Hold (8B / 13H / 2S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+0.74%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

25.87

ROE

73.2%

P/B Ratio

18.64

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

46.4%

ROIC

-

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-

WACC

8.6%

ROIC − WACC

-

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.95%
  • Price CAGR 10.57%
  • Gross Margin 46.4%
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 70.2%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 7.9%
  • PEG Ratio 1.94
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.23
  • Share Dilution -1.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 20.1% vs 19.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (6)

  • P/B Ratio 18.64
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • Analyst Consensus 35% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 1.1%

Unavailable (7)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.23

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-1.3%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Ms. Maria BlackPresident, CEO & DIrector51
Mr. Joseph DeSilva Jr.Executive VP of North America & Chief of Operations50
Mr. Michael Anthony Bonarti J.D.Chief Administrative Officer60
Mr. Sreenivasa KutamPresident of Global Product & Innovation55
Mr. Peter HadleyChief Financial Officer52
Mr. Jonathan LehbergerCorporate Controller & Principal Accounting Officer52
Mr. Matthew John Keating C.F.A.Vice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. David Kwon J.D.Corporate VP, Chief Legal Officer & General Counsel55
Mr. David FoskettPresident of Global Sales49
Ms. Samantha OrihuelaChief Marketing Officer42

Audit Risk

1

Board Risk

3

Compensation Risk

1

Shareholder Rights Risk

2

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for ADP, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/9/2026NEUTRAL
    Market Whales and Their Recent Bets on ADP Options

    Analysis of large options trades, often referred to as 'whale' activity, on Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) reveals significant, albeit complex, positioning. While specific details of the bets are not disclosed, the presence of substantial options volume suggests informed market participants are making significant directional or volatility plays. Investors should monitor these large trades for potential shifts in sentiment or upcoming price movements, though the exact implications remain unclear without further context on the specific options strategies employed.

via Markets Gazette