AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)

How it makes money

The business model the company is building toward is revenue sharing: it does not intend to sell subscriptions to consumers itself. Instead MNOs would sell satellite coverage to their own subscribers as an add-on to their existing plan, and AST SpaceMobile would take a share of that revenue — which is why the company says it avoids marketing, customer-acquisition, billing and support costs. That service had generated no revenue as of the FY2025 filing. The $70.9 million actually booked in 2025 came from two other, transitional sources: selling gateway ground equipment and software to MNO partners (booked as products revenue) and completing work under contracts with the U.S. Government, held either directly as prime contractor or through prime contractors (booked as services revenue). The company also discloses a $175 million commercial prepayment structure and other contracted commitments from partners, so some cash arrives ahead of the service itself.

Revenue by segment

What AST SpaceMobile owns that is hard to copy is intangible: patents and spectrum rights. The 10-K reports roughly 3,850 patent and patent-pending claims worldwide as of December 31, 2025, of which about 1,900 granted or allowed, across 38 patent families — 54 granted U.S. patents and 29 granted international patents in 17 countries. On top of that sit regulatory assets that are genuinely scarce: FCC authorisations, spectrum lease agreements with Verizon, AT&T and FirstNet, the S-Band ITU priority rights acquired in September 2025, and the mid-band usage rights that would come with the pending Ligado transaction. Orbital slots and coordinated frequencies are allocated by regulators, not bought on a market, and a rival cannot simply outspend its way past them. The reason to call this narrow rather than wide is that none of it has yet been converted into a paying commercial service: the moat protects a network that does not yet earn money, competitors including terrestrial operators and other satellite direct-to-device systems are moving at the same time, and the company itself warns that rapid technological change could render the service obsolete and that its patents may not be enforceable in every jurisdiction.

Demand here does not yet behave like demand for a product, because the product is not on sale. What drives the 2025 revenue lines is the pace at which partners build out: gateway equipment sales follow the deployment schedule of MNO partners, and government services revenue follows the award and completion of contracts with the U.S. Government — both lumpy and milestone-driven rather than tied to the economic cycle, which is why fourth-quarter revenue was more than three quarters of the full year. Once the commercial service runs, the underlying demand — mobile connectivity outside terrestrial coverage — would be broadly defensive, since phone service is among the last things consumers cut. What keeps the classification at moderate rather than defensive is that AST's own revenue would arrive as a share of what MNOs collect from an optional add-on, and optional add-ons are more discretionary than the base subscription; the company also monitors inflation, interest rates, capital-market volatility, supply-chain disruption and tariffs as factors that could raise the cost of building the constellation and affect its ability to raise capital.

Key risks

• The service is still in development and may never be completed — The company states there is no assurance it will complete the SpaceMobile Service and related infrastructure on time, on budget, or at all. It cites its own record as evidence: the BW3 launch was delayed, BW3 development costs exceeded initial estimates, BW3 testing took longer than expected, and the launches of the Block 1 satellites and of BB6 were both delayed. Designing, assembling and launching satellite systems is described as highly complex and historically subject to frequent delays and cost overruns.
• It may not be able to raise the money it needs — The 10-K warns the company may not be able to raise additional funds — for continued operations, to initiate the SpaceMobile Service, and for the Ligado transaction — when it needs them, on favourable terms or at all. It expects to incur significant future expenses and capital expenditures and says it may be unable to adequately forecast or control them. It also flags that failure to raise capital could lead its auditor or management to express substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern in future financial statements.
• A history of losses and no certainty of ever turning a profit — The company lists among its material risks that it has a history of losses and may never become profitable, and that its limited operating history in a rapidly evolving industry makes its business and future prospects difficult to evaluate. In FY2025 it reported a net loss before allocation to noncontrolling interest of $461.0 million and a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $341.9 million.
• Dependence on MNOs and on regulatory approval for spectrum — The company says it will rely on MNOs and will require regulatory approvals to access the spectrum it needs to provide Supplemental Coverage from Space. It also warns that it expects to provide the service in the U.S. and elsewhere on frequencies not regularly allocated for mobile-satellite service, which requires regulatory approval, with no assurance the approval will be received or maintained. It notes its business is subject to extensive regulation worldwide and that adverse regulatory action could limit its ability to offer service in important countries or regions.
• Satellites can fail, collide, or simply not work well enough — Disclosed risks include the possibility that satellites cannot be launched or operated successfully after launch, that launch insurance — if available at all — will not fully cover the risks, that satellites experience operational problems affecting service quality, that they have a limited life and may fail prematurely, and that they may collide with space debris or another spacecraft. The company also flags that its customised hardware and software may be difficult and expensive to service, upgrade or replace, and that its networks may be vulnerable to security risks and cyberattacks.
• U.S. Government contracts carry their own hazards — The company discloses that contracts with the U.S. Government subject it to risks including early termination, audits, investigations, sanctions and penalties. This matters because government work accounted for essentially all of its services revenue in 2025.
• Competition from terrestrial and other satellite systems — The company warns it could fail to achieve revenue from the SpaceMobile Service, or see revenue decline, because of increasing competition from wireless and other satellite operators, from the extension of land-based communications services, or from new technologies. It adds that rapid and significant technological change could render the service obsolete and impair its ability to compete, and that it will depend on third parties to market and sell its products and services.
• Dilution, convertible debt, and control concentrated in the founder — Shareholders are told they may experience future dilution from further equity offerings, exercise of penny warrants and conversion of convertible notes, and that such dilution may be substantial. Separately, the multi-class share structure concentrates voting power with founder, Chairman and CEO Abel Avellan, who with permitted transferees controlled approximately 72.0% of combined voting power as of February 26, 2026 — so he can decide matters requiring stockholder approval, including any merger or sale. The company also says it is highly dependent on his services.
• The Ligado transaction may not close, or may not deliver — The company devotes a dedicated risk category to the pending Ligado transaction: it may not be consummated and may be affected by ongoing litigation; shareholders may face additional dilution from the consideration payable; the anticipated benefits may not be realised; the debt financing raised in connection with it poses risks; and once closed, AST would face regulatory, technological and adoption risks around the use of Ligado's spectrum.

The 10-K does not disclose a numeric customer-concentration percentage — there is no "customer X accounted for Y% of revenue" statement in the filing. What the filing does make clear is that the customer base is extremely narrow in practice. The whole services line ($26.5 million, 37.4% of 2025 revenue) came from a single counterparty type: the U.S. Government, contracted directly or through prime contractors. The products line came from selling gateway equipment to MNO partners — a handful of buyers, not a broad market. Looking forward, the commercial service would be sold entirely through mobile operators rather than to end users, so AST's actual customers would remain a limited set of large carriers; the company names definitive commercial agreements with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and stc among more than 50 MNO relationships, and it discloses as a risk that it will be dependent on third parties to market and sell its products and services.