Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)
NEUTRALFundamental
53
Price
$94.59
Market Cap
$83.62B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Canadian Pacific Kansas City runs a single freight railway connecting Canada, the United States and Mexico under one network — the only one of its kind since the 2023 merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern. It hauls bulk commodities such as grain, coal and potash, merchandise freight like forest products, chemicals, metals and automotive parts, and intermodal containers, moving goods over track it owns rather than shares with competitors.
How it makes money
Revenue comes from freight rates charged per carload or container, which vary by commodity, distance and contract terms; some grain traffic in western Canada is capped by a government-set revenue formula rather than freely negotiated. Because the railway owns its own track, most operating costs are fixed regardless of volume, so profit is highly sensitive to how much freight actually moves over the network rather than to price alone.
Revenue by segment
Forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products and automotive parts — the largest and most varied freight category. Share of freight revenue.
Grain, coal, potash and fertilizers moved in unit trains — commodities produced in large, predictable volumes. Share of freight revenue.
Containers moved between ports, terminals and customers, competing directly with long-haul trucking. Share of freight revenue.
Competitive moat
Cost advantage · WideBuilding a second transcontinental railway alongside an existing one is not economically rational, so CPKC's track competes against trucking more than against another railway on most routes. Owning the only single-line network connecting Canada, the US and Mexico after the Kansas City Southern merger gives it routes competitors cannot simply build to match.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalDemand is a mix: grain and potash volumes follow harvests and global agricultural demand more than the economic cycle, while merchandise freight — automotive parts, metals, chemicals — and intermodal containers move with industrial production and consumer spending. That blend cushions the network against a single downturn, but currency swings and fuel prices still move margins on every shipment.
Key risks
- Dependence on key suppliers — The company depends on a limited number of suppliers for core railway equipment and materials, and disruption within the broader supply chain — ports, terminals, other railways — can hurt operating efficiency and raise costs.
- Fuel price volatility — Fuel is a significant share of operating costs. A fuel cost adjustment program mitigates but does not eliminate exposure to sharp price swings from supply shortages or geopolitical disruption.
- Three-currency exposure — Operating across Canada, the US and Mexico exposes results to swings in the Canadian dollar, US dollar and Mexican peso, and debt taken on for the Kansas City Southern acquisition limits financial flexibility.
- Merger integration risk — The company may fail to fully realize the cost savings, growth opportunities and synergies expected from the Kansas City Southern merger, and remains subject to continuing regulatory obligations from that transaction.
Customer concentration
The company states that for both 2025 and 2024 its revenues and operations were not dependent on any major customer — freight volume is spread across many shippers and commodities.
The case for
Buyers argue that being the only railway with a single-line route from Canada through the US to Mexico gives CPKC network advantages competitors cannot replicate, and that a freight mix spread across bulk, merchandise and intermodal, with no dependence on any single customer, makes revenue more resilient than a typical industrial company's.
The case against
Sellers fear that the debt taken on for the Kansas City Southern merger, exposure to three currencies, and dependence on diesel fuel leave margins vulnerable to macro shocks outside the company's control, and that realizing the promised synergies from combining two railways takes longer or costs more than planned.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$15.45B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$3.86B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
-
Total Equity
$46.83B
Total Liabilities
$39.12B
Current Ratio
0.59
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
3.05
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$75.21
Current Price
$94.59
Margin of Safety
-25.8%
Fair Value Range
$56.13 - $94.29
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
21.97
ROE
8.8%
P/B Ratio
1.75
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
5.4%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
5.4%
WACC
6.9%
ROIC − WACC
-1.5 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (14)
- Price CAGR 12.97%
- ROIC 5.4%
- P/B Ratio 1.75
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 36.8%
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 8.4%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 14.4%
- Analyst Consensus 83% Buy
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.42
- Share Dilution -1.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (8)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -6.74%
- Current Ratio
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- Earnings Surprise avg -3.7%
- PEG Ratio 6.29
- Net Margin Trend 27.4% vs 31.2%
Unavailable (6)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Keith E. Creel | CEO, President & Director | 56 |
| Mr. Nadeem S. Velani | Executive VP & CFO | 52 |
| Mr. Mark A. Redd | Executive VP & COO | 54 |
| Mr. John Kenneth Brooks | Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer | 54 |
| Mr. James Dominic Luther Clements | Executive Vice-President of Strategic Planning & Corporate Services | 55 |
| Ms. Pamela Lynne Arpin | Senior VP & Chief Information Officer | 49 |
| Ms. Cassandra P. Quach | VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 51 |
| Ms. Maeghan Albiston | Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 42 |
| Mr. Laird Joseph Pitz | Senior VP & Chief Risk Officer | 80 |
| Corey Heinz | Managing Director of Asia | - |
Audit Risk
3
Board Risk
2
Compensation Risk
8
Shareholder Rights Risk
3
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for CP, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 6/15/2026POSITIVE$1000 Invested In Canadian Pacific Kansas 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) made 15 years ago would have grown substantially, highlighting the company's strong long-term performance. While specific figures are not provided in the title, such a scenario typically implies significant capital appreciation and potentially dividend reinvestment over the period. This underscores CP's historical ability to generate value for shareholders, driven by factors such as operational efficiency, strategic acquisitions (like the Kansas City Southern merger), and its critical role in North American supply chains. Investors considering long-term holdings may find this historical performance indicative of future potential.
- 6/11/2026POSITIVEIf You Invested $1000 In Canadian Pacific Kansas Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) stock twenty years ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the long-term growth potential of the railway operator. While specific figures are not provided in this summary, the article implies significant capital appreciation and potential dividend reinvestment over two decades. This historical performance underscores CP's resilience and ability to generate value for shareholders through operational efficiency and strategic acquisitions, making it a noteworthy consideration for long-term portfolio strategies.
via Markets Gazette