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Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG)

NEUTRAL
EnergyOil & Gas E&PUnited States

Fundamental

61

Price

$201.11

Market Cap

$57.57B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Diamondback Energy drills for and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, almost entirely from the Permian Basin in West Texas — the largest oil-producing region in the United States. It owns roughly 869,000 net acres of drilling rights there and operates its own wells rather than just holding a financial stake in someone else's. Unlike a service company, Diamondback takes on the full cost and risk of drilling, then sells whatever oil and gas it finds.

How it makes money

Almost all revenue comes from selling oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids at prevailing market prices — Diamondback is a price-taker, not a price-setter, since crude trades on global benchmarks like WTI and gas on regional hubs like Henry Hub. A smaller portion comes from buying and reselling oil produced by others through its marketing operations, a lower-margin trading activity separate from its own production. Revenue therefore moves directly with commodity prices and with how many barrels the company pumps each day.

Revenue by segment

Oil, Natural Gas and NGL Sales89.5%

Revenue from Diamondback's own crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids production, priced at prevailing market rates.

Purchased Oil Sales9.8%

Lower-margin trading revenue from buying oil produced by third parties and reselling it, separate from Diamondback's own production.

Other Operating Income0.6%

Small residual income not tied to oil and gas sales.

Competitive moat

No identified moat · None

Diamondback sells the same commodity every other Permian producer sells, at the same market price, so it has no brand, network or switching-cost advantage over a rival. Its real edge is operating low-cost, contiguous acreage that lets it drill and produce more cheaply than higher-cost basins, which shows up in profitability rather than pricing power — a cost edge, not a moat that keeps competitors out.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Revenue swings with global oil and gas prices, which move with worldwide supply and demand, OPEC+ production decisions, and the broader economic cycle — factors entirely outside Diamondback's control. Production volumes are more within its control, but the company still chooses how much to drill based partly on the same price cycle, so both the price and the volume side of revenue tend to move together rather than offset each other.

Key risks

  • Revenue tied directly to commodity prices — Oil and gas prices are set by global markets outside the company's control, and a sustained price drop reduces revenue and profitability regardless of how efficiently Diamondback operates.
  • Geographic concentration in the Permian Basin — Nearly all production comes from one region, so a regional issue — pipeline bottlenecks, water disposal limits, or Texas-specific regulation — affects the whole company at once rather than one of several basins.
  • Environmental and regulatory exposure — Drilling, flaring and produced-water disposal are subject to environmental regulation that can tighten, raising compliance costs or restricting where and how much the company can drill.
  • Declining well productivity over time — Individual wells produce less oil each year after an initial peak, so Diamondback must keep drilling new wells just to hold production flat, and the best drilling locations get used up first.

Customer concentration

Diamondback does not name individual customers because it sells into liquid commodity markets at posted or index prices rather than through negotiated relationships with a handful of buyers, so customer concentration is not a meaningful risk the way it would be for a company selling a differentiated product.

The case for

Buyers argue that Diamondback's low-cost, contiguous Permian acreage lets it stay profitable at oil prices that would squeeze higher-cost producers, that its scale gives it negotiating leverage on drilling and pipeline costs, and that returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks makes the stock attractive even without oil-price appreciation.

The case against

Sellers fear that a sustained drop in oil prices would hurt Diamondback the same way it hurts every other Permian producer, that the best drilling locations get used up over time and force a shift to lower-quality acreage, and that heavy concentration in one basin and one commodity leaves little room to offset a regional or price-driven downturn.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$17.10B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$1.47B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

-

Total Equity

$36.97B

Total Liabilities

$28.09B

Current Ratio

0.47

Interest Coverage

5.19

Debt/EBITDA

2.00

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Overvalued

Fair Value

$158.47

Current Price

$201.11

Margin of Safety

-26.9%

Fair Value Range

$103.01 - $213.94

Estimation Methods

Analyst Target:$232.18
DCF:$134.43
PE-based:$58.80
Graham Growth:$85.47
EPV:$42.70
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (33B / 3H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+5.64%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

39.16

ROE

4.5%

P/B Ratio

1.52

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

1.3%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

1.3%

WACC

6.8%

ROIC − WACC

-5.5 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (14)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 13.23%
  • Price CAGR 7.63%
  • P/B Ratio 1.52
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 6.3%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 39.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 92% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 4.1%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 6.91
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (8)

  • ROIC 1.3%
  • Current Ratio
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE 3.9%
  • Share Dilution 35.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 8.6% vs 27.2%

Unavailable (6)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

6.91

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

35.1%

Issuing new shares, diluting ownership

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Matthew Kaes Van't HofCEO & Director38
Mr. Jere W. Thompson IIIExecutive VP & CFO36
Mr. Daniel N. WessonExecutive VP & COO41

Audit Risk

3

Board Risk

7

Compensation Risk

2

Shareholder Rights Risk

7

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for FANG, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/4/2026POSITIVE
    Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Diamondback Energy Stock In The Last 5 Years

    Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG) has delivered a remarkable 5-year return, significantly outperforming the broader market. While specific figures are not provided in this snippet, the title implies substantial gains for shareholders over the past half-decade. This performance suggests strong operational execution, strategic acquisitions, and favorable market conditions within the oil and gas sector. Investors looking for energy sector exposure with a proven track record of growth may find Diamondback Energy an attractive option, warranting further due diligence into its financial health and future prospects.

  • 5/4/2026POSITIVE
    Top U.S. oil producer declares ‘green’ light on drilling for more oil amid Iran war

    Diamondback Energy, a leading U.S. oil producer, has announced an increase in its drilling and spending activities, citing the ongoing Iran war as a primary driver. This move marks a significant development as the largest U.S. producer to publicly commit to expanded operations due to geopolitical tensions. The decision suggests a bullish outlook on crude oil prices, anticipating sustained or increased demand amidst supply chain uncertainties stemming from the conflict. Investors will monitor production figures and cost management closely.

  • 3/25/2026POSITIVE
    $1000 Invested In Diamondback Energy 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Diamondback Energy (FANG) five years ago would have yielded a significant return, illustrating the company's strong performance in the energy sector. While specific figures are not provided in the title, such a headline typically indicates substantial capital appreciation, likely driven by factors such as increased oil production, favorable commodity prices, and strategic acquisitions. Investors who held FANG stock over this period would have benefited from both share price growth and potential dividend payouts, underscoring the attractiveness of well-managed energy companies in a fluctuating market.

  • 3/10/2026NEGATIVE
    Autry Stephens Daughter Selling $2 Billion in Diamondback Shares

    The daughter of the late wildcatter Autry Stephens is set to sell approximately $2 billion worth of Diamondback Energy Inc. stock. These shares were acquired as part of the proceeds from the sale of her father's oil company. This significant block sale could exert downward pressure on the stock price due to increased supply in the market. Investors will be monitoring the execution of this sale and its immediate impact on Diamondback's trading volume and valuation.

via Markets Gazette