Intel Corporation (INTC)
OvervaluedFundamental
29
Price
$104.70
Market Cap
$553.46B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Intel designs and, unlike most of its chip rivals, still largely manufactures its own processors for PCs and servers. It is trying to run two businesses at once: selling chips under its own brand, and rebuilding Intel Foundry into a manufacturing service that makes chips designed by other companies, in an attempt to catch up with TSMC's lead in advanced manufacturing.
How it makes money
Product revenue is booked when a chip ships, and depends on PC replacement cycles and server upgrade budgets that Intel is no longer the automatic default winner of. Intel Foundry's reported revenue is mostly internal — wafers it manufactures for Intel's own product divisions — so it does not yet represent a large, separate stream of revenue from outside customers; foundry only becomes a real second growth engine once external customers commit to manufacturing there in volume.
Revenue by segment
PC processors (Client Computing Group) and server processors (Data Center and AI), sold externally under the Intel brand. Effectively the whole of Intel's external revenue.
Mobileye's driver-assistance chips and remaining minority stakes in businesses being wound down or divested, such as the stake retained in Altera.
Competitive moat
No identified moat · NoneIntel's historical advantage was owning the best chip factories in the world; it has lost that lead to TSMC over the past decade, and its x86 processors now compete on largely even software terms with AMD's. Intel Foundry is a bid to rebuild a manufacturing-scale advantage, but it has not yet proven it can attract enough outside customers to become one.
What drives demand
CyclicalPC and server chip demand follows corporate refresh budgets and consumer replacement cycles, which move in multi-year waves and are sensitive to the broader economy. Foundry demand, once it exists at scale, will follow the even longer capital-commitment cycles of chip design customers deciding years in advance where to manufacture.
Key risks
- Uncertain foundry turnaround — Intel is investing very heavily to build advanced manufacturing capacity for Intel Foundry, but it has not yet secured external customer commitments at a scale that justifies that spending, and may not.
- Competitive pressure in core products — AMD has taken share in PC and server processors, and NVIDIA dominates the AI accelerator market Intel has struggled to enter. Losing further ground in either core market pressures both volume and price.
- Heavy, long-payback capital spending — New fabrication plants cost tens of billions of dollars and take years to become productive. If demand or foundry customer wins fall short, Intel carries the fixed costs of capacity it cannot fill.
- Execution risk on manufacturing roadmap — Intel's plan depends on hitting a series of new manufacturing process milestones on schedule after years of past delays; another slip would extend the gap with TSMC and further discourage outside foundry customers.
The case for
Buyers argue that Intel Foundry, once its newest manufacturing process matures, gives Intel a path back to competing with TSMC and a second growth engine beyond its own chips, backed by government support for domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
The case against
Sellers fear that Intel is funding an extremely expensive foundry turnaround with a core products business that keeps losing share to AMD and NVIDIA, and that without outside foundry customers the enormous capital spending underway may never earn an adequate return.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
AMD is the only other large supplier of x86 processors and sells directly against Intel in PC chips, server CPUs and discrete graphics, to the same PC makers and cloud operators.
NVIDIA takes the data-center budget Intel is trying to win with its accelerators and Xeon platforms, and also competes with Intel in graphics for PCs.
Qualcomm's Arm-based Snapdragon X processors are sold to the same Windows notebook manufacturers that Intel supplies, competing design win by design win.
TSMC is the company Intel Foundry must take manufacturing contracts from, since both sell advanced chip production to the same fabless customers such as Apple, NVIDIA and AMD.
GlobalFoundries competes with Intel Foundry for outsourced chip manufacturing on mature process nodes, serving the same customers who need capacity outside Asia.
Samsung's foundry division bids for the same leading-edge manufacturing orders as Intel Foundry and is named by Intel itself as a direct foundry competitor.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$57.03B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Net Income
$-11.29B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/27/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-4.95B
Total Equity
$114.28B
Total Liabilities
$85.07B
Current Ratio
1.60
Interest Coverage
0.07
Debt/EBITDA
3.00
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$73.97
Current Price
$104.70
Margin of Safety
-41.5%
Fair Value Range
$48.08 - $99.86
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-0.2%
P/B Ratio
6.03
P/FCF
186.54
Gross Margin
38.6%
ROIC
-0.0%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-0.0%
WACC
16.0%
ROIC − WACC
-16.1 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (9)
- Price CAGR 12.95%
- Gross margin 38.6%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Earnings surprise, average 1,086.3%
- Net margin trend -19.8% vs -38.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (14)
- EPS shows upward trend
- ROIC -0.0%
- P/FCF 186.54
- P/B ratio 6.03
- Operating margin -0.1%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE -10.8%
- Revenue growth 5Y -7.5%
- Analyst consensus: 35% buy
- Share dilution 3.9%
Unavailable (4)
- Dividend payout –
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Lip-Bu Tan | CEO & Director | 66 |
| Mr. David A. Zinsner | Executive VP, CFO and Principal Financial & Accounting Officer | 56 |
| Mr. Nagasubramaniyan Chandrasekaran | Executive VP, Chief Technology and Operations Officer & GM of Intel Foundry | 50 |
| Ms. Cynthia A. Stoddard | Senior VP & Chief Information Officer | 68 |
| Mr. John William Pitzer | Corporate Vice President of Corporate Planning & Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Aparna Bawa Esq. | Executive VP and Chief Legal & People Officer | 46 |
| Ms. Annie Shea Weckesser | Senior VP and Chief Marketing & Communications Officer | - |
Audit Risk
8
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-01-23
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-24
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-12
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for INTC, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 3d agoNEGATIVEPerché le azioni di Intel e AMD stanno crollando giovedì?
Intel (INTC) shares plunged approximately 6% on Thursday, while AMD saw a decline of over 4%. This downturn occurred amidst a broad sell-off in US equities, exacerbated by rising oil prices and Treasury yields, which fueled inflation and interest rate concerns. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also fell sharply by over 3.8%. Brent crude futures surged 4.2% to surpass $104 per barrel due to Middle East supply worries and US production disruptions. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.3%, nearing recent highs. Investors are reassessing risk exposure in light of these macroeconomic pressures.
- 4d agoPOSITIVEIntel guadagna prima dell'apertura: come i commenti di Musk hanno innescato il rialzo
Intel Corporation's stock saw a pre-market uptick of 0.3% on Wednesday, recovering from prior week losses. This movement follows Elon Musk's clarification that his business empire will independently manage its Terafab chip manufacturing project. The statement alleviates concerns that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) might take an operational role, reinforcing Intel's ongoing partnership with Musk. The Terafab venture, based in Texas, aims to produce chips for Musk's Tesla Inc. and SpaceXAI. For investors, this news signals continued collaboration and reduces competitive pressure from potential TSMC involvement, supporting Intel's strategic positioning in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.
- 6d agoNEGATIVEPerché le azioni Intel scendono lunedì?
Intel Corporation's stock experienced a decline of approximately 2% in early trading on Monday. This downturn follows Elon Musk's confirmation that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is in discussions to participate in Intel's ambitious Terafab chip manufacturing project. The news has raised concerns among investors about potential increased competition for Intel in a key strategic initiative that has previously driven significant stock gains this year. While Intel shares dipped, TSMC's US-listed shares saw a 1.4% increase. This development introduces a competitive dynamic that could impact Intel's market position and future growth prospects.
- 12d agoNEGATIVELe azioni Intel hanno perso quasi il 10% in due giorni: il grande rimbalzo è finito?
Intel shares have experienced a significant decline, shedding nearly 10% over two trading days. The stock closed Monday around $116.03, following a 5.67% drop and a 3.5% fall on Friday. This retracement occurs amidst rising Treasury yields, elevated oil prices, and renewed pressure on tech stocks, triggering profit-taking after Intel's rally. Despite the pullback, core operational fundamentals remain robust, with strong demand for server processors, improved pricing power, and analyst optimism regarding Intel's foundry ambitions. However, the recent price action suggests a potential end to the immediate recovery trade for semiconductor stocks.
- 13d agoNEGATIVEPerché le azioni di Intel e AMD scendono lunedì?
Intel Corporation (INTC) shares plummeted over 6% on Monday, alongside a more than 5% drop in AMD, as rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured broader markets. The sell-off disproportionately affected chip and AI-related stocks. Brent crude surged past $108 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate futures climbed to $95.64 following geopolitical tensions. Simultaneously, Treasury yields continued their significant upward trend from the previous week. This confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors is creating headwinds for technology stocks, impacting investor sentiment and potentially leading to further price corrections.
- 17d agoPOSITIVEPerché le azioni di Intel e AMD sono in rialzo giovedì?
Intel (INTC) and AMD shares experienced a notable rise on Thursday, defying broader market and semiconductor sector weakness. This surge is attributed to renewed enthusiasm surrounding Meta Platforms' AI assistant, Muse, which has reignited investor interest in CPU manufacturers. While major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw minimal movement, and Treasury yields climbed to multi-year highs, the positive sentiment around AI's potential is directly benefiting Intel and AMD. This suggests that company-specific catalysts, particularly in the burgeoning AI space, can override general market headwinds, presenting a bullish outlook for these chipmakers.
via Markets Gazette