The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)

How it makes money

Revenue comes from selling branded packaged food to retailers and foodservice operators, who mark it up and resell it to consumers. A relatively small number of very large retail chains account for a large share of sales, giving them real leverage to negotiate price and shelf space, while Kraft Heinz's own leverage rests on brand names consumers specifically look for, such as Heinz Ketchup, that retailers feel they must stock.

Revenue by segment

Heinz Ketchup, Kraft cheese and other brands built over a century of advertising and habit still make consumers ask for them by name and give Kraft Heinz leverage in getting shelf space. That advantage has narrowed, though: private-label alternatives have improved in quality and price, and North American volumes have been declining as shoppers trade down, so the brand edge no longer guarantees growth.

People keep buying condiments, packaged cheese and coffee regardless of the economic cycle, which is why packaged food is considered a defensive business. But within that stability, Kraft Heinz's North American volumes fell as shoppers traded down to cheaper private-label alternatives, showing that 'defensive' protects the category more than it protects any one company's brand or market share within it.

Key risks

• Reliance on a few very large retail customers — A handful of large mass-market and club-store chains account for a substantial share of sales, giving them significant leverage over pricing, promotions and shelf placement.
• Private-label and value competition — Store-brand alternatives have narrowed the price and quality gap with Kraft Heinz products, and North American volumes have already declined as shoppers traded down.
• Commodity cost volatility — Meat, dairy, grains and packaging material costs fluctuate with global commodity markets, and Kraft Heinz cannot always pass higher input costs on to retailers through price increases.
• Shifting consumer preferences — Demand is gradually shifting toward fresher, less processed food, which pressures some legacy packaged-food categories that make up a large part of Kraft Heinz's portfolio.
• Brand and goodwill impairment risk — Many Kraft Heinz brands are carried on the balance sheet at values set when they were acquired; if a brand underperforms for long enough, the company can be forced to write down its value.

Kraft Heinz does not break out individual retailer names in the results reviewed here, but a small number of very large mass-market and club-store chains account for a substantial share of North American sales.