Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY)

How it makes money

Mobileye is paid per chip: an automaker commits to a vehicle programme years before it launches, and revenue only starts flowing once that model reaches volume production and the chips ship with every car built. Selling a more complete system like SuperVision, rather than a bare processor, raises the amount Mobileye earns per vehicle. Because programmes are locked in so far ahead, this year's revenue mostly reflects design decisions automakers made years earlier, not current demand.

Revenue by segment

Once an automaker designs Mobileye's chip and software into a vehicle platform, replacing it means re-engineering and re-validating the whole driver-assistance system — a multi-year process most automakers avoid mid-cycle. That lock-in only lasts until the next vehicle redesign, though, and it is not exclusive: several of Mobileye's largest customers are simultaneously developing their own chips or buying from rivals such as Nvidia and Qualcomm.

Revenue follows global new-vehicle production, which itself follows the broader economy, and it is amplified by how many cars per year are built with advanced driver-assistance features rather than basic ones. A slowdown in car sales or a model delay at a major customer shows up in Mobileye's numbers with only the lag of existing inventory, since chips ship to match actual vehicle output.

Key risks

• Customer concentration among automakers — Revenue depends on a small number of automakers and Tier 1 suppliers; a lost design win, a delayed model or a volume cut at one of them has an outsized effect on results.
• Customers building chips in-house or buying from rivals — Several of the automakers Mobileye supplies are also developing their own driver-assistance chips or sourcing from competitors such as Nvidia and Qualcomm, which can shrink Mobileye's share of a given vehicle programme over time.
• Long lead time between design win and revenue — A vehicle programme is designed years before it launches, so Mobileye's near-term revenue is largely fixed by past decisions; a design win today will not show up in revenue for years, and cannot rescue a weak year.
• Regional instability — Mobileye's research and development is concentrated in Israel, and regional conflict or instability could disrupt its operations, its ability to retain staff, or its relationships with customers and suppliers.
• Automotive production cyclicality — Because chips ship to match actual vehicle assembly, any slowdown in global car production — from weak demand, supply shortages or a customer's model delay — reduces Mobileye's revenue with little lag.

Mobileye does not disclose an exact percentage, but states that its revenue depends on a relatively small number of automakers and their Tier 1 suppliers, so a single customer's model or volume decision can move results.