Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)
NEUTRALFundamental
47
Price
$66.55
Market Cap
$43.66B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Rocket Lab builds and launches rockets, and increasingly builds the satellites that fly on them. Its Electron rocket carries small satellites into orbit for government agencies and commercial operators who cannot fill a larger vehicle alone, and it is developing a bigger rocket, Neutron, aimed at the larger payloads that today mostly go to SpaceX. Alongside launch, its Space Systems division designs and manufactures satellite components and full spacecraft, a business it has grown mainly through acquisitions.
How it makes money
Launch Services revenue is booked when Electron missions fly, priced per launch and per payload mass, so it depends on how many rockets get built and successfully flown in a given period. Space Systems revenue instead comes from selling hardware and engineering services under contracts that can run for months before a single item ships, so it recognizes revenue progressively as work is completed. Neutron has not yet flown commercially, so today's revenue is still almost entirely Electron launches and Space Systems contracts.
Revenue by segment
Design and manufacture of satellite components and complete spacecraft, built into a larger business mainly through acquisitions.
Electron rocket launches for government and commercial small-satellite customers, priced per mission and payload mass carried.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · NarrowRocket Lab is one of very few companies anywhere that has repeatedly and reliably launched orbital rockets, a track record and set of government certifications that take years to earn and that most new entrants do not have. That edge is real in the small-launch niche, but SpaceX dominates the broader launch market by cost and cadence, and Neutron still has to prove itself before Rocket Lab can compete for larger payloads.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalGovernment contracts, a large share of both segments, tend to be multi-year and relatively insulated from short-term economic swings, but they depend on national space and defense budgets that can shift with policy priorities. Commercial satellite demand is more cyclical, tied to how much capital satellite operators are able to raise and deploy at any given time.
Key risks
- Concentration in government funding — A large share of revenue across both segments ultimately depends on US government space and defense budgets, and a shift in agency priorities or a funding delay can slip contracts and revenue.
- Neutron development and execution risk — The larger Neutron rocket has not yet flown commercially and its timeline has already slipped; a further delay or a launch failure would set back Rocket Lab's ability to compete for bigger payloads.
- Launch failures and mission risk — A single launch failure can destroy a customer's payload, trigger contract penalties, and ground the launch schedule for months while the cause is investigated and fixed.
- Integration risk from rapid acquisitions — Space Systems has grown largely by acquiring other companies; folding their operations, contracts and engineering teams into Rocket Lab carries execution risk beyond organic growth.
Customer concentration
As of the end of 2024, Lockheed Martin and Dynetics each accounted for 15% of accounts receivable, and Rocket Lab's largest counterparty overall is the US government, whose funding decisions affect a large share of both segments.
The case for
Buyers argue that Rocket Lab's proven launch reliability and growing Space Systems business give it a rare, credible position as a full-stack space company beyond SpaceX, that Neutron opens a much larger addressable market once it flies, and that a fast-growing backlog shows real demand ahead of that capacity.
The case against
Sellers fear that Neutron's delays push out the payoff for a company still spending heavily to develop it, that SpaceX's scale and pricing dominate the broader launch market Rocket Lab is trying to enter, and that heavy reliance on government budgets and a handful of large counterparties leaves results exposed to decisions Rocket Lab does not control.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$769M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$-165M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-322M
Total Equity
$1.72B
Total Liabilities
$603M
Current Ratio
5.48
Interest Coverage
8.64
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$112.94
Current Price
$66.55
Margin of Safety
+41.1%
Fair Value Range
$107.29 - $118.59
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-11.5%
P/B Ratio
11.70
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
37.3%
ROIC
-4.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-4.8%
WACC
18.0%
ROIC − WACC
-22.8 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (11)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 38.90%
- Gross Margin 37.3%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Revenue Growth 5Y 76.5%
- Analyst Consensus 78% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 37.8%
- Net Margin Trend -21.5% vs -45.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (9)
- ROIC -4.8%
- P/B Ratio 11.70
- Operating Margin -29.1%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE -7.6%
- Share Dilution 7.0%
Unavailable (7)
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- CapEx intensity
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Adam C. Spice | CFO & Treasurer | 56 |
| Mr. Frank Klein | Chief Operations Officer | 52 |
| Mr. Arjun L. Kampani J.D. | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 53 |
| Ms. Morgan Bailey Connaughton | Vice President of Marketing & Communications | - |
| Ms. Connie Lundgren | Vice President of People & Culture | - |
| Mr. Ehson Mosleh | Space Systems Chief Engineer | - |
Audit Risk
7
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
8
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for RKLB, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 7d agoPOSITIVELe azioni Rocket Lab volano: un pattern raro indica rialzi, ma c’è un rischio
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares have surged from a low of $58.25 to $82, buoyed by strong earnings and an expanding backlog. The company's stock experienced a significant uplift following a major agreement with Viasat, a key player in satellite communications. Rocket Lab will provide its high-performance Lightning spacecraft platform for Viasat's payload. This development, coupled with a rare bullish double-bottom pattern formation, suggests further short-term upside potential for RKLB investors. The deal underscores Rocket Lab's growing influence in the space sector.
- 15d agoNEGATIVERocket Lab reveals some big plans, but its stock is dropping on mixed earnings
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. reported mixed financial results, leading to a stock price decline despite ambitious expansion plans. The company is focusing on extending its European presence and growing its order backlog, signaling potential future revenue streams. However, the immediate market reaction suggests that current earnings or forward guidance did not meet investor expectations, overshadowing the long-term strategic initiatives. Investors will be closely monitoring the execution of these expansion plans and their impact on profitability in upcoming quarters.
- 15d agoPOSITIVERocketLab Rises on Space Interest; Moderna Moves on Flu Shot | Stock Movers
RocketLab USA Inc. saw its shares climb, continuing a positive trend from the previous Friday. This upward movement follows recent earnings reports from SpaceX, indicating a broader positive sentiment within the space industry. Investors are likely reacting to the competitive landscape and potential growth opportunities highlighted by these industry players. The renewed interest in space exploration and commercialization, coupled with SpaceX's performance, appears to be boosting investor confidence in RocketLab's prospects.
- 7/8/2026POSITIVERocket Lab’s stock could surge 250% as the company takes a page out of SpaceX’s book, analyst says
Morgan Stanley has upgraded its outlook on Rocket Lab USA, Inc., citing a significantly improved bull case driven by business diversification. The firm suggests the stock could experience a substantial surge of up to 250%. This optimistic projection is attributed to Rocket Lab adopting strategies similar to SpaceX, indicating a potential for accelerated growth and market expansion. Investors are watching closely as the company's strategic pivot aims to unlock new revenue streams and enhance its competitive position in the aerospace sector.
- 6/29/2026POSITIVERocket Lab to Buy Iridium in Challenge to SpaceX
Rocket Lab is set to acquire satellite communications firm Iridium Communications Inc. for $54 per share in a cash-and-stock deal, aiming to bolster its position in the orbital economy and challenge market leader SpaceX. The acquisition, valued at approximately $2.9 billion, will integrate Iridium's satellite constellation and services with Rocket Lab's launch capabilities. This strategic move is expected to enhance Rocket Lab's revenue streams and market competitiveness, potentially leading to increased investor interest and a re-evaluation of its growth prospects.
- 6/26/2026POSITIVERocket Lab Rises on NASA Selection; Microsoft Down on Tech Selloff | Stock Movers
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is experiencing a surge in its stock price following a significant announcement from NASA. The space exploration company has been selected by the U.S. space agency to provide three Electron launches for two distinct missions, PolSIR and TSIS-2. These launches are scheduled to commence in early 2027. This selection by NASA underscores Rocket Lab's capabilities and its growing role in the space launch sector, providing a strong positive outlook for the company's future revenue streams and technological advancements. Investors are likely to view this as a key validation and a driver for future growth.
- 6/20/2026POSITIVE2 Industrial Stocks to Buy After the SpaceX IPO
Following the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, analysts are identifying alternative investment opportunities within the aerospace sector. Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) and Leidos (LDOS) are highlighted as potentially more attractively valued stocks compared to SpaceX. This suggests that while SpaceX's market debut garners attention, established players like Rocket Lab may offer a more compelling risk-reward profile for investors seeking exposure to the burgeoning space industry. Investors should consider these alternatives for their portfolios.
- 6/16/2026NEGATIVERocket Lab Stock Pulls Back Tuesday: What's Going On?
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB) experienced a stock pullback on Tuesday, with shares trading lower. The decline appears to be driven by a shift in investor attention towards competitor SpaceX and a general weakness observed across the broader market. This move suggests that external factors, rather than company-specific news, are currently influencing RKLB's stock performance, potentially creating a short-term bearish sentiment among traders.
- 6/15/2026POSITIVERocket Lab’s stock rebounds, as one analyst says the SpaceX-fueled selloff was misguided
Rocket Lab's stock experienced a rebound following an analyst's assertion that the selloff, attributed to SpaceX's potential public debut, was misplaced. The debate centered on whether SpaceX's IPO would either boost or cannibalize investor interest in other space sector stocks. This analyst's view suggests that the market overreacted, potentially creating a buying opportunity for investors who believe in Rocket Lab's independent growth trajectory and technological advancements in launch services and space systems.
via Markets Gazette