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Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM)

NEUTRAL
Consumer DefensiveGrocery StoresUnited States

Fundamental

66

Price

$84.73

Market Cap

$8.03B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Sprouts Farmers Market runs a chain of specialty grocery stores built around fresh produce, natural and organic foods, and a distinctive small-format layout — roughly a third the size of a conventional supermarket. It targets health-conscious shoppers with a curated selection rather than trying to stock everything a full-size supermarket does, and has been expanding its store count and private-label range faster than most traditional grocery chains.

How it makes money

Sprouts earns money the way any grocer does: buying products at wholesale and selling them at retail, with margin coming from pricing, private-label products and store-level efficiency rather than from any subscription or service fee. Its Sprouts-branded private label made up just over a quarter of 2025 sales and typically carries a fatter margin than national brands, while organic products made up more than 30% of sales and over half of fresh produce.

Competitive moat

Brand · Narrow

Sprouts differentiates with a curated, produce-forward format and private-label products that shoppers cannot buy at a conventional supermarket, which builds some loyalty among health-focused customers. The advantage stays narrow, though: Whole Foods, Trader Joe's and ordinary grocery chains are all expanding their own natural and organic sections, and grocery shopping habits are notoriously easy to split across multiple stores.

What drives demand

Defensive

Grocery spending is close to the definition of non-discretionary — people keep buying food in a downturn — which makes Sprouts' revenue fairly resilient to the economic cycle. Growth is driven less by the cycle and more by how many new stores Sprouts opens and how much existing stores can grow sales per square foot as private-label and organic offerings expand.

Key risks

  • Heavy reliance on two distributors — KeHE supplied about 52% of Sprouts' purchases in fiscal 2025 and UNFI another 12%; losing either relationship, or a disruption at either distributor, would be difficult to replace on short notice.
  • Intense grocery competition — Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, Kroger and Walmart are all expanding natural and organic offerings, competing for the same health-conscious shoppers Sprouts targets, often with far greater buying power and lower prices.
  • Comparable sales could decelerate — Recent comparable store sales growth has been unusually strong; sustaining that pace as the store base matures and gets larger is harder than it was when Sprouts was a smaller, faster-growing chain.
  • Thin grocery margins amplify cost pressure — Grocery retail runs on thin margins, so food cost inflation, wage increases or a promotional response from larger competitors can compress profitability faster than in higher-margin businesses.

The case for

Buyers argue that Sprouts' produce-forward, small-format concept is winning share from conventional supermarkets, that its growing private-label range lifts margins as it expands, and that double-digit comparable sales growth shows the format still has room to run.

The case against

Sellers worry that grocery is a low-margin, easily contested business where larger rivals can match Sprouts' organic and natural offerings, that heavy reliance on two distributors for the bulk of its supply chain is a structural vulnerability, and that today's strong comparable sales growth will be hard to repeat as the chain matures.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$9.00B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/28/2026)

Net Income

$503M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/28/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$468M

Total Equity

$1.40B

Total Liabilities

$2.76B

Current Ratio

0.99

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

2.50

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Undervalued

Fair Value

$125.49

Current Price

$84.73

Margin of Safety

+32.5%

Fair Value Range

$81.57 - $169.41

Estimation Methods

Analyst Target:$94.64
DCF:$209.13
PE-based:$78.60
Graham Growth:$194.50
EPV:$69.60
Analyst Consensus:Buy (13B / 8H / 1S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+1.08%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

16.47

ROE

37.3%

P/B Ratio

5.35

P/FCF

22.51

Gross Margin

38.7%

ROIC

14.9%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

14.9%

WACC

6.3%

ROIC − WACC

+8.6 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 15.67%
  • ROIC 14.9%
  • Gross Margin 38.7%
  • P/FCF 22.51
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 7.4%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 34.8%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 59% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 0.91
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.34
  • Share Dilution -2.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (7)

  • P/B Ratio 5.35
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg 2.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 5.6% vs 5.8%

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.34

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-2.8%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Jack L. SinclairCEO & Director64
Mr. Nicholas KonatPresident & COO47
Mr. Curtis ValentineChief Financial Officer45
Mr. James H. BahrenburgChief Technology Officer60
Mr. Stacy W. HilgendorfVP, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer55
Ms. Susannah LivingstonVice President of Investor Relations & Treasury-
Mr. Brandon F. Lombardi Esq., J.D.Chief Legal & Sustainability Officer and Corporate Secretary48
Ms. Timmi ZalatorisChief Human Resources Officer48
Mr. David M. McGlincheyChief Development Officer52
Ms. Kim CoffinSenior Vice President & Chief Forager56

Audit Risk

2

Board Risk

2

Compensation Risk

4

Shareholder Rights Risk

6

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for SFM, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/5/2026POSITIVE
    Is Sprouts Farmers Market Stock Going to $100?

    Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) is experiencing a potential rebound after halving in price since the summer. The question of whether the stock can reach $100 is now a key focus for investors. While the journey has been volatile, the recent performance suggests a renewed confidence in the grocery retailer's business model. For investors, this presents an opportunity to assess whether the upward trajectory can be sustained by solid fundamentals or if it's a speculative bounce.

via Markets Gazette