Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX)
NEUTRALFundamental
65
Price
$818.57
Market Cap
$180.10B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Seagate makes hard disk drives — spinning-platter storage that is far cheaper per terabyte than flash memory, which is why it remains the default choice for storing the enormous and growing volume of data cloud providers keep. Its newest drives use a technology called HAMR to pack more data onto each platter. The bulk of its business is now selling these high-capacity drives directly to the operators of hyperscale cloud data centers.
How it makes money
Revenue comes from selling hardware, mostly high-capacity nearline drives to cloud and enterprise data centers, plus a smaller and shrinking business of drives for consumer and edge devices. Seagate does not disclose a separate percentage breakdown between these markets for fiscal 2025, reporting instead as a single storage-products business; management describes cloud and data-center demand as the large majority of sales. Pricing and margins move with industry-wide supply discipline among the few remaining drive makers.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowOnly two companies, Seagate and Western Digital, still make hard drives at meaningful scale after years of industry consolidation, and building a competing factory network from scratch would take years and enormous capital. That scale advantage is real but narrow, because the product is still largely a commodity bought on cost-per-terabyte by a handful of powerful cloud buyers who can play the two suppliers against each other.
What drives demand
CyclicalDemand tracks the capacity-expansion plans of a small number of huge cloud operators, which order in large, lumpy batches tied to their own data-center build-outs. The industry has a long history of swinging between shortage and oversupply within a few quarters as those buyers adjust orders, making revenue and pricing considerably more volatile than end-user data growth alone would suggest.
Key risks
- Customer concentration among a few hyperscalers — A large share of revenue depends on a small number of very large cloud and data-center customers; a delay, cancellation or reduction of orders by any one of them can materially affect results.
- Competition from Western Digital and flash storage — Seagate competes directly with Western Digital and Toshiba on hard drives, and indirectly with NAND flash suppliers as flash prices fall and encroach on use cases once reserved for hard disks.
- Supplier and materials dependency — Manufacturing relies on single-source suppliers for some components and on rare earth elements and specialized alloys whose availability and price can be volatile.
- Manufacturing footprint concentration — Production is concentrated in a handful of countries, leaving the company exposed to trade policy, tariffs and regional disruption at any single facility.
The case for
Buyers argue that the AI-driven boom in data creation requires ever more cheap bulk storage, that Seagate's HAMR technology has reopened a capacity-per-platter lead over Western Digital, and that near-quadrupled profit and much wider margins in fiscal 2025 show the industry has finally found supply discipline rather than reverting to its old boom-bust pattern.
The case against
Sellers fear that hard drives remain a two-supplier commodity business bought by a handful of price-sensitive hyperscalers, that today's record margins reflect a temporary capacity shortage rather than a permanent shift, and that the industry's long history of overbuilding into every upcycle will repeat once again.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$12.20B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/3/2026)
Net Income
$3.18B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/3/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$3.10B
Total Equity
$2.17B
Total Liabilities
$7.80B
Current Ratio
1.67
Interest Coverage
14.42
Debt/EBITDA
0.89
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$554.07
Current Price
$818.57
Margin of Safety
-47.7%
Fair Value Range
$360.14 - $747.99
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
57.17
ROE
146.9%
P/B Ratio
83.11
P/FCF
58.00
Gross Margin
45.6%
ROIC
47.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
47.3%
WACC
15.9%
ROIC − WACC
+31.3 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 36.39%
- ROIC 47.2%
- Gross Margin 45.6%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 33.6%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 212.4%
- Analyst Consensus 87% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 11.3%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.15
- Net Margin Trend 26.1% vs 16.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9
Failed (8)
- P/FCF 58.00
- P/B Ratio 83.11
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue Growth 5Y 2.7%
- PEG Ratio 3.12
- Share Dilution 5.6%
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Dr. William David Mosley Ph.D. | CEO & Chairman | 58 |
| Mr. Gianluca Romano | Executive VP & CFO | 56 |
| Dr. John C. Morris | Executive VP & CTO | 58 |
| Mr. James C. Lee J.D. | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 55 |
| Mr. Ban Seng Teh | Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer | 58 |
| Mr. Kian Fatt Chong | Executive Vice President of Global Operations | 62 |
| Ms. Shanye Hudson | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations & Treasury | - |
| Major General Patricia A. Frost | Executive VP and Chief People & Places Officer | 59 |
Audit Risk
2
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
6
Shareholder Rights Risk
8
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for STX, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 28d agoPOSITIVESeagate’s earnings are welcome news for the battered AI trade
Seagate Technology Holdings plc reported June-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street's expectations, leading to an after-hours stock rally. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the positive earnings surprise suggests robust performance in its storage solutions, potentially benefiting from demand related to the AI trade. This positive outcome is likely to boost investor sentiment and could lead to upward price target revisions for the company's stock.
- 5/19/2026NEGATIVESeagate Leads Memory Stocks Lower Following Capacity Warning
Seagate Technology (STX) shares declined significantly after its CEO voiced concerns about the industry's ability to meet the burgeoning demand for memory driven by artificial intelligence. This warning casts a shadow over the company's capacity to scale production effectively, potentially impacting future revenue streams and profitability. The broader memory sector also experienced a downturn as investors reacted to Seagate's cautionary outlook, suggesting a sector-wide challenge in balancing supply with the exponential growth in AI-related data storage needs. Investors are now reassessing their positions in memory chip manufacturers.
- 5/13/2026POSITIVEIf You Invested $1000 In Seagate Technology Hldgs Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) stock 20 years ago would have yielded a significant return, illustrating the long-term growth potential of the data storage solutions provider. While specific figures are not provided in the title, the framing suggests a substantial appreciation in value. This historical performance underscores the company's resilience and ability to adapt to evolving technological landscapes, making it a noteworthy consideration for investors focused on technology hardware with a long-term investment horizon.
- 4/27/2026POSITIVESeagate To Rally More Than 19%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Monday
Seagate Technology is poised for a potential rally exceeding 19%, according to a compilation of 10 top analyst forecasts. Several Wall Street firms, including Truist Securities, Guggenheim, Benchmark, HC Wainwright, Stifel, Bank of America Securities, and Mizuho, have updated their ratings and price targets for the company. These revisions suggest a broadly positive sentiment among analysts, indicating confidence in Seagate's future performance and potential for significant stock appreciation. Investors should monitor these updated targets for potential entry or exit points.
- 4/24/2026NEUTRALSeagate, Semis, And E-Commerce: Tradr Doubles Down With New 2X ETFs
Tradr has launched new 2X leveraged ETFs focusing on Seagate Technology, Coupang, and Monolithic Power Systems. These ETFs aim to provide traders with amplified exposure to the AI momentum and high-growth stock sectors. The introduction of leveraged products offers a way for sophisticated investors to potentially magnify returns, but also increases risk due to the inherent volatility of these sectors and the use of leverage. Investors should note that these instruments are designed for short-term trading strategies.
- 4/22/2026POSITIVEWhat's Driving Seagate Technology Stock To All-Time Highs?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:STX) experienced a significant surge on Wednesday, reaching all-time highs. This upward momentum is largely attributed to a wave of positive analyst ratings and coverage received throughout the week. The sustained bullish sentiment from financial analysts suggests a strong conviction in the company's future performance and market position. Investors are likely reacting to these endorsements, which often precede or accompany upward price movements, signaling confidence in Seagate's growth prospects and operational execution.
- 4/8/2026NEUTRALHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Seagate Technology Hldgs Stock In The Last 20 Years
An analysis of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) stock performance over the past 20 years reveals a complex investment journey. While the article highlights the potential for significant returns, it also implies a historical perspective rather than a forward-looking trading signal. Investors would need to examine the specific returns, volatility, and underlying business drivers during that period to assess its current investment merit. The article serves as a retrospective look at shareholder value creation, not a direct recommendation for immediate action.
- 4/6/2026POSITIVEThis ‘overlooked’ AI stock is a new top pick at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley has identified Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) as a new top pick, suggesting the market is overlooking its significant recent gains. The investment bank's positive stance implies a belief in the company's continued growth potential, particularly within the AI sector. Investors who have not yet considered Seagate may find this analyst upgrade a compelling reason to re-evaluate the stock, potentially leading to increased demand and price appreciation.
- 4/2/2026POSITIVESeagate Shares Rise 3% After Key Trading Signal
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) experienced a notable surge, with its shares climbing 3% to an intraday high following the activation of a key trading signal. The positive momentum was observed when the stock reached a price of $415.81, indicating a strong investor response to this technical indicator. This price action suggests that the trading signal may have accurately predicted an upward movement, potentially driven by increased buying interest or a shift in market sentiment for STX. Investors will be watching to see if this trend continues.
via Markets Gazette