Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
NEUTRALFundamental
59
Price
$35.59
Market Cap
$18.23B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Tractor Supply is the largest US retail chain built specifically around rural life: farm and ranch supplies, animal feed, fencing, work clothing and outdoor equipment, sold through more than 2,600 stores mostly in small towns rather than big cities. Many of its customers are not full-time farmers but suburban and exurban households keeping chickens, horses or a large garden — a lifestyle market rather than a strictly agricultural one.
How it makes money
Revenue comes from selling physical merchandise in stores, with a growing share fulfilled through the website and picked up or delivered from the same store network. Margins depend on running a large, efficient supply chain for bulky, low-margin staples like feed and fencing alongside higher-margin discretionary categories like clothing and seasonal goods, and on keeping stores in towns too small to attract a second dedicated rural retailer.
Revenue by segment
Feed for livestock and horses, poultry supplies, fencing and sprayers and chemicals — the category tied most closely to actual farming and ranching.
Pet food and supplies, mainly for dogs and cats, sold in bulk sizes suited to rural and suburban households.
Lawn and garden equipment, heating and generators, and outdoor recreation items whose demand shifts with the seasons and weather.
Hand and power tools, hardware and truck accessories for maintenance work around a property.
Work and outdoor clothing plus home and gift items, the most discretionary and fashion-sensitive part of the mix.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowTractor Supply's network of small-town stores and the supply chain built to stock them profitably are hard for a new entrant to replicate quickly, and in many of its towns there is no comparably sized rural retailer nearby. That advantage is real but not absolute: general merchandisers, home centers, pet chains and online sellers all compete for pieces of its assortment.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalA large part of the assortment — feed, fencing, basic supplies for animals people already own — is recurring and not very discretionary, which cushions the business in a downturn. But categories like seasonal equipment, clothing and big-ticket outdoor gear are more sensitive to household budgets and weather, so overall demand moves moderately with the economy rather than staying flat.
Key risks
- Competition across many retail formats — The company competes at once with general merchandisers, home centers, pet retailers, regional farm-store chains, farm cooperatives and online sellers, any of which can undercut it in a given category.
- Weather and seasonal sensitivity — Sales of seasonal and recreation merchandise depend on weather patterns being roughly normal; an unusually mild winter or wet spring can directly reduce demand for entire product categories.
- Comparable store sales fluctuation — Growth depends heavily on existing stores selling more each year; a slowdown in comparable sales, from softer consumer spending or local competition, hits results quickly since new-store growth alone cannot offset it.
- Tariffs and import cost exposure — A meaningful part of the merchandise sold is imported, so changes in tariffs or trade policy can raise the cost of goods faster than prices can be adjusted for customers.
- Cybersecurity and system disruption — The company relies on connected point-of-sale, e-commerce and supply chain systems across thousands of locations; a cyberattack or major system failure could disrupt sales and expose customer data.
The case for
Buyers argue that Tractor Supply's small-town store footprint faces little direct competition locally, that the mix of recurring farm staples and discretionary lifestyle goods has produced years of steady comparable-sales growth, and that the company keeps opening new stores profitably in a niche the biggest retailers do not chase.
The case against
Sellers worry that comparable-store sales growth has been slowing as the store base matures, that discretionary categories like seasonal goods and clothing are exposed to a squeezed consumer, and that big-box and online retailers keep chipping away at categories once considered Tractor Supply's own.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$15.52B
Fiscal year ended 12/27/2025
Net Income
$1.10B
Fiscal year ended 12/27/2025
Free Cash Flow
$740M
Total Equity
$2.58B
Total Liabilities
$8.35B
Current Ratio
1.33
Interest Coverage
21.22
Debt/EBITDA
4.44
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$40.27
Current Price
$35.59
Margin of Safety
+11.6%
Fair Value Range
$27.14 - $53.41
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
16.98
ROE
42.5%
P/B Ratio
7.11
P/FCF
60.97
Gross Margin
36.4%
ROIC
13.9%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
13.9%
WACC
5.7%
ROIC − WACC
+8.3 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 8.72%
- ROIC 13.9%
- Gross Margin 36.4%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 9.5%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 39.3%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 7.9%
- Analyst Consensus 54% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.86
- Share Dilution -1.4%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (8)
- EPS CAGR 2.13%
- P/FCF 60.97
- P/B Ratio 7.11
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings Surprise avg -5.8%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.68
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Net Margin Trend (invalid data)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Moderate: some gap between profits and cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Harry A. Lawton III | President, CEO & Director | 51 |
| Mr. Kurt D. Barton CPA | Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | 53 |
| Mr. John P. Ordus | Executive VP & Chief Stores Officer | 48 |
| Mr. Jonathan Seth Estep | Executive VP & Chief Merchandising Officer | 45 |
| Ms. Mary Winn Pilkington | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations & Public Relations | - |
| Mr. Thomas J. Sabatino Jr. | Interim General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 66 |
| Ms. Kimberley S. Gardiner | Senior VP & Chief Marketing Officer | 56 |
| Ms. Melissa D. Kersey | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Matthew L. Rubin | Senior Vice President & President of Digital | 44 |
| Mr. Nicole Logan | Senior Vice President & General Merchandise Manager | - |
Audit Risk
3
Board Risk
2
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
1
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for TSCO, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 4/26/2026NEGATIVETractor Supply, Lululemon, and Northrop Grumman Are Among Top 10 Large-Cap Losers Last Week (April 20-April 24): Are The Others In Your Portfolio?
Tractor Supply Company was among the top 10 large-cap stock losers last week, experiencing a significant slide from April 20th to April 24th. This decline is attributed to broader market pressures including earnings misses, weak forward guidance from various companies, and a wave of analyst downgrades across multiple sectors. Investors should note that such broad-based negative sentiment can impact even fundamentally sound companies, signaling potential headwinds for the retail and consumer discretionary sectors.
- 4/21/2026NEGATIVEWhat's Going On With Tractor Supply Stock Today?
Tractor Supply Company experienced a stock decline following its first-quarter financial report, which revealed that both earnings and sales fell short of analyst expectations. Despite reporting modest year-over-year growth and maintaining its full-year financial outlook, the miss in quarterly performance has weighed on investor sentiment. The company's ability to meet future targets will be closely scrutinized as it navigates current market conditions.
- 3/12/2026POSITIVEUnder $50, Is Tractor Supply Stock a Buy?
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is presenting a potential buying opportunity despite near-term sales pressures. The company's strategic focus on non-discretionary items, crucial for the rural lifestyle consumer, positions it favorably for long-term resilience. While current sales may be experiencing headwinds, the pullback in stock price, potentially below $50, could be an attractive entry point for investors. The company's ability to cater to essential needs within its target demographic suggests a robust business model that can weather short-term economic fluctuations, making it a candidate for strategic accumulation.
via Markets Gazette