Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Fair ValueFundamental
49
Price
$382.70
Market Cap
$1.51T
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Tesla designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles directly to buyers, without a franchised dealer network, and builds its own battery cells at vertically integrated factories in the US, China and Germany. Alongside cars it sells energy-storage batteries and solar equipment to homes and utilities, and is pushing into new, unproven lines: paid driving-assistance software, a robotaxi service, and Optimus, a humanoid robot still in early development.
How it makes money
Tesla earns most of its money selling vehicles outright, recognizing revenue on delivery rather than through a dealer network, which keeps a larger slice of the sale price but pushes service, financing and inventory risk onto the company itself. It also sells high-margin regulatory emissions credits to other automakers who need them to meet clean-air rules. A growing services line covers Supercharging, insurance and paid driving-assistance software subscriptions.
Revenue by segment
Sales and leases of electric vehicles, plus automotive regulatory credits sold to other manufacturers.
Megapack and Powerwall battery systems sold to utilities and homeowners, plus solar panels and roofing.
Used-car sales, paid Supercharging, non-warranty maintenance, insurance and parts and merchandise sales.
Competitive moat
Cost advantage · NarrowTesla builds its own battery cells and runs vertically integrated Gigafactories, which has kept its unit production costs below most legacy automakers and funded the largest fast-charging network in North America. But Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have matched or undercut Tesla's costs, so the advantage is narrowing rather than widening as competition intensifies.
What drives demand
CyclicalVehicle purchases are large, discretionary, and sensitive to interest rates, financing costs and government incentives, all of which can shift abruptly with policy changes. Demand has swung sharply in several markets as EV tax credits and subsidies were reduced or removed, showing how much of Tesla's volume depends on conditions outside its control.
Key risks
- Intensifying EV competition — Chinese manufacturers and legacy automakers are launching competitive electric vehicles at lower prices, eroding the cost and technology lead Tesla built in its early years.
- Supplier and manufacturing dependence — Tesla relies on suppliers, including single-source ones, for critical components; a shortage or disruption at any of them can directly delay production and deliveries.
- Dependence on Elon Musk — Tesla's strategy, product direction and public profile are closely tied to Elon Musk, who also runs several other companies; his divided attention or departure would be a material loss for Tesla.
- Unproven new product lines — Robotaxi services, full self-driving software and the Optimus robot are still in early, nascent stages, face significant technical and regulatory hurdles, and compete against well-funded rivals.
The case for
Buyers argue that Tesla's lead in vertical integration and self-driving software will eventually translate into higher-margin businesses such as robotaxis and robots, and that its Supercharger network and brand keep customers loyal even as EV competition grows.
The case against
Sellers fear that Chinese and legacy competitors are closing the EV cost gap faster than the new robotaxi and robot businesses can generate revenue, and that much of the company's valuation rests on projects that remain unproven.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$103.62B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$3.80B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$6.22B
Total Equity
$82.14B
Total Liabilities
$54.94B
Current Ratio
1.94
Interest Coverage
13.09
Debt/EBITDA
1.50
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$396.57
Current Price
$382.70
Margin of Safety
+3.5%
Fair Value Range
$376.74 - $416.40
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
354.35
ROE
4.6%
P/B Ratio
17.40
P/FCF
262.32
Gross Margin
18.9%
ROIC
3.0%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
3.0%
WACC
14.1%
ROIC − WACC
-11.0 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (13)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 38.88%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Revenue growth 5Y 24.6%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 4.91
- Share dilution 1.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (13)
- ROIC 3.1%
- Gross margin 18.9%
- P/FCF 262.32
- P/B ratio 17.40
- Operating margin 4.2%
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE 4.6%
- Analyst consensus: 49% buy
- Earnings surprise, average -7.0%
- PEG ratio 10.36
- Net margin trend 3.7% vs 6.3%
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend payout –
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Elon R. Musk | Co-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director | 54 |
| Mr. Vaibhav Taneja | Chief Financial Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Xiaotong Zhu | Senior Vice President of APAC & Global Vehicle Manufacturing | 45 |
| Travis Axelrod | Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Brandon Ehrhart | General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
| Mr. Franz von Holzhausen | Chief Designer | - |
| Ms. Roxanne Inskip-Kaye | Head of Operations - Electric Vehicle Business | - |
| Mr. John Walker | Vice President of Sales - North America | 62 |
| Mr. Rodney D. Westmoreland Jr. | Director of Construction Management | - |
| Mr. Lars Moravy | Vice President of Vehicle Engineering | - |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
10
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
9
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-01-29
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-23
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-02
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for TSLA, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 2d agoPOSITIVEPerché il titolo Tesla sta guadagnando oggi?
Tesla shares surged 2.24% on Friday as investors reacted positively to Elon Musk's strategic announcements. Musk clarified that Tesla and SpaceX will jointly own and operate Terafab, a proposed chip manufacturing facility in Texas. This news, coupled with improved vehicle sales figures from China and positive analyst sentiment ahead of the Q3 earnings report on October 21st, fueled the stock's rise. The company's ambitious plans in artificial intelligence and semiconductor production are generating significant investor interest, signaling potential future growth drivers beyond electric vehicles.
- 3d agoNEUTRALTesla’s big AI gamble puts its EV business under a microscope
Tesla's strategic pivot towards significant investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) ventures is drawing investor scrutiny, as the company relies heavily on its electric vehicle (EV) sales to finance these ambitious, capital-intensive projects. While the long-term AI vision could unlock new revenue streams and technological leadership, the immediate focus on funding these initiatives through its core automotive business raises questions about resource allocation and potential impacts on EV development and profitability. Investors are seeking clarity on the financial roadmap and the balance between current operations and future AI ambitions.
- 4d agoNEGATIVEAzioni Tesla in ribasso nonostante la Germania sostenga il lancio dell'FSD in Europa
Tesla shares experienced a decline on Wednesday despite positive signals from Germany regarding the accelerated rollout of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software across the European Union. German Transport Minister Steffen Bilger expressed support for rapid approval, aiming for Tesla drivers to benefit from assisted driving features EU-wide without delay. This development, however, was overshadowed by a broader EU vote on the technology being postponed. While Elon Musk acknowledged the German support, the stock's downturn suggests market concerns persist, potentially related to regulatory uncertainties or other unmentioned factors impacting investor sentiment.
- 9d agoPOSITIVETesla tonica a Wall Street dopo consegne terzo trimestre oltre le attese
Tesla Inc. shares surged on Wall Street following the release of its third-quarter 2026 delivery figures. The electric vehicle manufacturer, based in Austin, Texas, reported production of 464,391 vehicles and approximately 22,000 deliveries that exceeded market expectations. This positive delivery report is a key indicator of demand and operational efficiency, often leading to upward revisions in analyst price targets and increased investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
- 10d agoNEGATIVETesla’s delivery report is just around the corner. Expect a sales drop.
Tesla's upcoming delivery report is anticipated to reveal a sales drop, reflecting waning investor interest in the company's EV business. While the exact figures are yet to be released, the expectation of a decline suggests potential headwinds for the electric vehicle giant. This news could impact investor sentiment and lead to a reassessment of Tesla's valuation, especially if the drop is more significant than currently priced in by the market. Investors will be closely watching for any commentary on future production and demand drivers.
via Markets Gazette