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Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAY)

POSITIVE
IndustrialsAirlinesHong Kong

Fundamental

82

Kurs

$14.60

Marktkapitalisierung

$88.60B

Teil 1 · Was das Unternehmen wert ist

Übersicht

Cathay Pacific is Hong Kong's home airline, flying passengers and freight between Hong Kong and destinations across Asia, North America, Europe and Australia, using the city's international airport as its hub. The group also owns the low-cost carrier HK Express and a large cargo operation that flies dedicated freighter aircraft. Its business depends on Hong Kong remaining an attractive stopover point for travellers and shippers moving between Asia and the rest of the world.

Wie das Geld verdient wird

The airline sells seats and cargo space on scheduled flights; revenue is booked when a passenger flies or a shipment moves, and results move with two separate drivers — how full the planes are (load factor) and how much each seat or kilogram of cargo fetches (yield). Fuel is the single largest cost, so profitability is squeezed whenever oil prices rise faster than fares and freight rates can be adjusted.

Umsatz nach Segment

Passenger and Other79.2%

Passenger flights on Cathay Pacific and HK Express, plus catering, engineering and other airline-related services; not broken out separately in reported results.

Cargo20.8%

Dedicated freighter and belly-hold cargo capacity, which carried 1.67 million tonnes in 2025 for HK$24.3 billion in revenue.

Wettbewerbsvorteil

Skaleneffekte · Schmal

Cathay's position as the dominant carrier at Hong Kong International Airport, with decades of accumulated route rights, slots and a large widebody fleet, gives it a real hub advantage that a new entrant could not quickly replicate. The advantage is narrow: airlines compete hard on price for the same passengers, and Cathay's own results show yields falling under regional competition even as the hub advantage holds.

Was die Nachfrage antreibt

Zyklisch

Air travel and air freight demand rise and fall with global trade and travel activity, and fares fall quickly whenever regional airlines add capacity, as happened across Asia in 2025 as carriers restored seats after the pandemic. Jet fuel, priced off volatile crude oil, is a further swing factor the airline can only partly hedge.

Wichtigste Risiken

  • Geopolitical route disruption — A volatile geopolitical environment can force sudden route cancellations and reroutings, as happened when the group cancelled all flights to Dubai and Riyadh in response to Middle East tensions, cutting capacity with little notice.
  • Fuel price volatility — Jet fuel is one of the largest items on the airline's cost base; management has hedged only around 30% of anticipated 2026 fuel needs at roughly $70 a barrel for Brent crude, leaving most of the exposure unhedged.
  • Regional competition on fares — Asian airlines restoring post-pandemic capacity pushed fares down across the region in 2025, cutting Cathay Pacific's full-service yield by 12% and low-cost subsidiary HK Express's yield by 23% year on year.

Die Argumente dafür

Buyers argue that Cathay's Hong Kong hub advantage remains intact, that group profit rose to HK$10.8 billion in 2025 on record passenger volumes, and that continued long-haul network expansion to North America and Europe positions the airline to keep capturing recovering travel demand.

Die Argumente dagegen

Sellers worry that regional overcapacity is already pushing fares and yields down, that geopolitical shocks can force route cancellations with almost no warning, and that with most of its fuel exposure unhedged a sustained rise in oil prices would hit margins hard just as competitive pressure caps how much fares can rise.

Written by the editors, published on 18. August 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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Bilanz & Liquidität

Umsatz

$105.52B

Letzte 12 Monate bis zum zuletzt gemeldeten Quartal — Schätzung aus Kennzahlen je Aktie

Nettogewinn

$9.79B

Letzte 12 Monate bis zum zuletzt gemeldeten Quartal — Schätzung aus Kennzahlen je Aktie

Freier Cashflow

$15.46B

Gesamtes Eigenkapital

$58.02B

Gesamtverbindlichkeiten

$63.49B

Current Ratio

0.44

Zinsdeckungsgrad

-

Schulden/EBITDA

2.79

Gewinn je Aktie

Umsatz & Nettogewinn

Freier Cashflow

Ertragsaufschlüsselung

Historische Aufstellung

Margen im Zeitverlauf

Verschuldung im Zeitverlauf

Wie schwer die Schulden wiegen

Wachstumsraster

Wachstum — Umsatz

Innerer-Wert-Schätzung

Unterbewertet

Innerer Wert

$28.51

Aktueller Kurs

$14.60

Sicherheitsmarge

+48.8%

Innerer-Wert-Spanne

$18.53 - $38.49

Bewertungsmethoden

Analyst Target:$15.88
DCF:$65.11
PE-based:$18.26
Graham Growth:$33.54
EPV:$21.21
Analystenkonsens:Kaufen (11B / 3H / 1S)
Letzte Gewinnüberraschung:-22.94%

Bewertungskennzahlen

P/E-Verhältnis

9.05

ROE

24.5%

P/B-Verhältnis

1.63

P/FCF

5.73

Bruttomarge

64.0%

ROIC

8.2%

Rentabilitäts-Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

8.2%

WACC

4.7%

ROIC − WACC

+3.5 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamentalanalyse-Kriterien

Bestanden (16)

  • ROIC 8.2%
  • Gross Margin 64.0%
  • P/FCF 5.73
  • P/B Ratio 1.63
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 12.4%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 19.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 20.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 73% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 50.5%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.58
  • Net Margin Trend 9.3% vs 9.2%

Nicht bestanden (4)

  • Price CAGR 4.73%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Nicht verfügbar (7)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Ernsthafte finanzielle Bedenken

score
criteria

Gewinnqualität

2.58

Hohe Qualität: Gewinne durch Cashflow gedeckt

Aktienverwässerung

-

Aktienrückkäufe. Aktionärsfreundlich

Unternehmensführung

Führungsteam

NamePositionAlter
Mr. Guy Martin Coutts Bradley J.P.Executive Chairman of the Board59
Mr. Siu Por LamCEO & Executive Director52
Ms. Rebecca Jane SharpeCFO & Executive Director54
Mr. James John McGowanChief Operations & Service Delivery Officer and Executive Director52
Ms. Hoi Zee LauChief Customer & Commercial Officer and Executive Director54
Mr. Keith FungGeneral Manager of Corporate Finance-
Ms. Joanna LaiGroup General Counsel & Company Secretary40
Ms. Patricia HwangDirector of People-
Christopher J. BuckleyHead of Financial Service-
Mr. Jonathan NgRegional Head of Customer Travel & Lifestyle - Southeast Asia-

Prüfungsrisiko

3

Vorstandsrisiko

4

Vergütungsrisiko

6

Aktionärsrechterisiko

8

Teil 2 · Der Preis und der Einstiegszeitpunkt

Dieser Teil sagt nicht, ob das Unternehmen etwas taugt: Er hilft bei der Wahl des Kaufzeitpunkts, nachdem die Fundamentaldaten überzeugt haben. Enthalten: technische Analyse, Potenzial, historische Drawdowns, Gamma-Exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for CPCAY, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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