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Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)

NEUTRAL
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

Fundamental

67

Kurs

$35.18

Marktkapitalisierung

$7.54B

Teil 1 · Was das Unternehmen wert ist

Übersicht

Dropbox sells cloud storage and file-sharing subscriptions: customers pay a monthly or annual fee to keep files synced across devices and shared with others, rather than buying storage as a one-off purchase. Around the core storage product it has added e-signature (Dropbox Sign), document tracking (DocSend), form creation (FormSwift) and an AI-powered search tool (Dash), aiming to keep individuals, freelancers and small businesses inside one subscription instead of losing them to separate point solutions.

Wie das Geld verdient wird

Revenue comes almost entirely from subscriptions billed to individuals, freelancers and small business teams rather than from large enterprise contracts, and the company reports it as a single business rather than in separate segments. Because storage itself has become a commodity that Microsoft and Google give away bundled into Office 365 and Google Workspace, Dropbox's ability to keep or raise prices depends on customers valuing its added tools enough to pay for a stand-alone product.

Wettbewerbsvorteil

Kein erkennbarer Vorteil · Keiner

Dropbox itself states that competitors with greater name recognition and larger user bases can bundle a broader range of products and undercut it on price, and that less expensive, bundled alternatives have already hurt its user growth. Files stored in Dropbox create some switching friction, but not enough to stop paying users from plateauing as Microsoft and Google give storage away for free inside suites customers already buy.

Was die Nachfrage antreibt

Mäßig zyklisch

Demand for Dropbox's core service is fairly steady — files and documents need to be stored and shared regardless of the economic cycle — but paying users have plateaued at around 18 million as free, bundled alternatives from Microsoft and Google absorb new demand. Growth now depends more on convincing existing customers to add tools like e-signature or AI search than on winning new storage customers, and small-business customers can also cut software spending in a downturn.

Wichtigste Risiken

  • Competition from larger, bundled providers — The company states that competitors such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon have greater name recognition, larger user bases and the ability to bundle storage with broader product suites, and that less expensive, bundled offerings have already hurt user growth.
  • Paying user growth has stalled — Paying users have plateaued at around 18 million, and fiscal 2025 revenue actually declined slightly year over year, reflecting weaker performance in Teams and reduced investment in FormSwift.
  • Currency exposure — About half of revenue is generated outside the United States and 27% of sales are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, so a stronger dollar reduces reported revenue relative to costs.

Kundenkonzentration

Die größten Kunden machen 1 % des Umsatzes aus

No single customer accounted for more than 1% of revenue in 2025, 2024 or 2023: revenue is spread across millions of individual and small-business subscribers rather than concentrated in a few large accounts.

Die Argumente dafür

Buyers argue that Dropbox's high operating margins and cash generation let it return capital to shareholders even with flat revenue, that expanding beyond storage into e-signature, document tracking and AI search gives it more to sell to an existing base with almost no customer concentration, and that a stabilized paying-user count of 18 million provides a steady subscription foundation.

Die Argumente dagegen

Sellers worry that free, bundled storage inside Microsoft 365 and Google Workspace has commoditized Dropbox's core product and capped paying-user growth for years, that revenue actually declined slightly in 2025, and that newer tools like Dash AI have yet to prove they can offset churn in the core storage business.

Written by the editors, published on 18. August 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Bilanz & Liquidität

Umsatz

$2.53B

Letzte 12 Monate (bis 30.6.2026)

Nettogewinn

$443M

Letzte 12 Monate (bis 30.6.2026)

Freier Cashflow

$931M

Gesamtes Eigenkapital

$-1.80B

Gesamtverbindlichkeiten

$4.64B

Current Ratio

1.07

Zinsdeckungsgrad

-

Schulden/EBITDA

0.85

Gewinn je Aktie

Umsatz & Nettogewinn

Freier Cashflow

Ertragsaufschlüsselung

Historische Aufstellung

Margen im Zeitverlauf

Verschuldung im Zeitverlauf

Wie schwer die Schulden wiegen

Wachstumsraster

Wachstum — Umsatz

Innerer-Wert-Schätzung

General caseFair bewertet

Innerer Wert

$39.85

Aktueller Kurs

$35.18

Sicherheitsmarge

+11.7%

Innerer-Wert-Spanne

$25.90 - $53.79

Bewertungsmethoden

Analyst price target:$30.67
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$81.43
Earnings multiple (P/E):$17.51
Graham growth formula:$29.30
Earnings power value (EPV):$29.36
Justified P/B:Not enough data to compute it
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:$3.05
Revenue multiple:$31.79
Analystenkonsens:Verkaufen (1B / 6H / 9S)
Letzte Gewinnüberraschung:+8.00%

Bewertungskennzahlen

P/E-Verhältnis

19.32

ROE

-28.3%

P/B-Verhältnis

-

P/FCF

10.64

Bruttomarge

79.7%

ROIC

32.3%

Rentabilitäts-Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

32.3%

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

+25.0 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamentalanalyse-Kriterien

Bestanden (16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 6.76%
  • ROIC 32.3%
  • Gross Margin 79.7%
  • P/FCF 10.64
  • Operating Margin 26.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 5.7%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 8.1%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.21
  • Share Dilution -15.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Nicht bestanden (5)

  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • ROE -36.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 6% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 17.5% vs 19.2%

Nicht verfügbar (6)

  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Gemischte Signale: Einige Bereiche bedürfen Aufmerksamkeit

score
criteria

Gewinnqualität

2.21

Hohe Qualität: Gewinne durch Cashflow gedeckt

Aktienverwässerung

-15.4%

Aktienrückkäufe. Aktionärsfreundlich

Unternehmensführung

Führungsteam

NamePositionAlter
Mr. Andrew W. HoustonCo-Founder, Co-CEO & Chairman42
Mr. Ashraf AlkarmiCo-CEO & Director46
Mr. Ross TennenbaumChief Financial Officer47
Mr. Ali DasdanChief Technology Officer55
Mr. William YoonChief Legal Officer46
Ms. Sarah Elizabeth SchubachChief Accounting Officer-
Ms. Saman AsheerChief Communications Officer-

Prüfungsrisiko

4

Vorstandsrisiko

8

Vergütungsrisiko

8

Aktionärsrechterisiko

10

Teil 2 · Der Preis und der Einstiegszeitpunkt

Dieser Teil sagt nicht, ob das Unternehmen etwas taugt: Er hilft bei der Wahl des Kaufzeitpunkts, nachdem die Fundamentaldaten überzeugt haben. Enthalten: technische Analyse, Potenzial, historische Drawdowns, Gamma-Exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for DBX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/9/2026NEGATIVE
    Is Dropbox Stock a Buy or Sell After the CEO Sold Shares Worth $4.2 Million?

    Dropbox CEO Drew Houston offloaded 150,000 shares of the cloud storage company's stock for approximately $4.2 million. This significant insider selling, disclosed in a recent SEC filing, raises concerns among investors about the executive's confidence in the company's near-term prospects. While the sale represents a small fraction of Houston's total holdings, such large transactions can sometimes signal a lack of positive catalysts or potential headwinds ahead. Investors often interpret insider selling as a bearish signal, prompting a re-evaluation of their positions.

via Markets Gazette