Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS)
POSITIVEFundamental
75
Precio
$120.83
Capitalización Bursátil
$2.27B
Parte 1 · Cuánto vale la empresa
Resumen
Addus HomeCare Corporation has provided home-based care in the United States since 1979. It sends caregivers and clinicians into people's homes rather than treating them in a facility, operating three segments: personal care (non-medical help with daily living), hospice (end-of-life care) and home health (short-term skilled nursing and therapy). As of December 31, 2025 it operated roughly 262 offices across 23 states, served about 107,000 discrete consumers during the year and employed 50,659 people, of whom 49,948 were caregivers and agency staff. Its consumers are predominantly 'dual eligible' — entitled to both Medicare and Medicaid — and the business is built on the premise that care at home costs less than care in an institution and is what families prefer. It provides all three levels of care in Ohio, Tennessee, Illinois and New Mexico, and grows both organically and by buying small local agencies (four acquisitions in 2025).
Cómo genera ingresos
Addus is paid by government programmes and their intermediaries, not by patients. In 2025 it derived about 39.3% of net service revenues from state and local governmental agencies (mostly Medicaid programmes) and about 20.5% from Medicare, with the balance from managed care organisations, commercial insurers, the Veterans Health Administration and private pay. Personal care is billed on an hourly or unit-of-service basis at rates each state sets; hospice is paid a daily rate per enrolled patient under the Medicare Hospice Prospective Payment System; home health is paid a standardised 30-day period rate adjusted for case mix under Medicare's Patient-Driven Groupings Model. Contracts with state and local agencies typically run one to two years initially, can be cancelled on 60 days' notice, and are usually renewed for one to five years. Revenue therefore moves with three things the company does not control: authorised hours, reimbursement rates set by legislatures and CMS, and the wage it must pay caregivers.
Ingresos por segmento
Non-medical help with the activities of daily living — bathing, grooming, feeding, dressing, medication reminders, meal preparation, housekeeping and transport — for elderly, chronically ill or disabled people at risk of hospitalisation or institutionalisation, plus staffing services sold to assisted living facilities, nursing homes and hospices. Revenue was $1,089.2 million in 2025.
Physical, emotional and spiritual care for terminally ill patients — generally with a life expectancy of six months or less — and support for their families, including palliative nursing, social work, spiritual counselling, homemaker services and bereavement counselling. Revenue was $262.5 million in 2025.
Medical services at home — skilled nursing and physical, occupational and speech therapy — provided on a short-term, intermittent or episodic basis to people recovering from an illness, injury or hospital stay. Revenue was $70.8 million in 2025.
Ventaja competitiva
Escala · EstrechaThe company itself describes its industry as highly competitive, fragmented and market-specific, with no single competitor holding significant share across all its markets — that is the opposite of a fortress. What advantage exists is local and regulatory rather than universal: Addus is one of the larger providers in the states where it concentrates, which makes it a more useful partner for managed care organisations that are narrowing their provider networks, and it can offer all three levels of care in Ohio, Tennessee, Illinois and New Mexico. The 10-K also argues that licensing requirements, electronic visit verification mandates, rising operating and technology complexity and pressure on reimbursement rates 'may discourage new providers and may encourage industry consolidation'. Those are real but narrow barriers: they raise the cost of entry without giving Addus pricing power, since rates are set by states and CMS, and its consumers can pick any authorised provider from a list.
Qué impulsa la demanda
DefensivoWhat Addus sells is not discretionary: help with bathing, dressing and eating for frail elderly and disabled people, and care for the dying. Demand comes from the ageing of the US population and from the preference — shared by families and by payors trying to cut cost — for care at home rather than in an institution, and the company expects demand for home and community-based services to keep growing for those reasons. The cycle that matters here is fiscal rather than economic: revenue depends on state budgets and on rates set by legislatures and CMS. Illinois, for instance, raised its in-home hourly rate to $29.63 from January 2025 and to $30.80 from January 2026, each time alongside a higher mandated minimum wage for direct service workers ($18.00, then $18.75 per hour) — so a good year is one where the rate increase covers the wage increase. Volumes are also constrained by supply: growth depends on state agencies authorising new consumers and on Addus being able to hire enough caregivers to serve them.
Riesgos clave
- Revenue is concentrated in a handful of states — In 2025 Addus derived approximately 37.0% of net service revenues from Illinois, 15.2% from Texas and 13.1% from New Mexico. Because so much of the business sits in a small number of states, any change in the demographic, economic, competitive or regulatory conditions there — including changes to those states' Medicaid programmes — could have a disproportionately negative effect.
- Cuts to Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement — About 39.3% of 2025 revenue came from state and local government agencies, mainly Medicaid, and about 20.5% from Medicare. The Budget Control Act imposes a 2% across-the-board Medicare reduction running through most of 2032, and the company flags that the OBBBA is expected to produce Medicaid spending reductions and restrict state financing mechanisms such as provider taxes and state directed payments. Home and community-based services are optional under Medicaid, so they are exposed when states have to cut.
- Dependence on one payor: the Illinois Department on Aging — The Illinois Department on Aging accounted for 18.1% of net service revenues in 2025 (21.0% in 2024). State officials have tried in the past, and may try again, to cut spending at that department; changes to eligibility, to the number of hours authorised, or other restrictions on services would hit revenue and growth directly.
- Finding and keeping caregivers, at a cost the payor may not cover — Addus competes for caregivers and skilled clinical staff with other providers and with service industries generally. It states that a tight labour market, the increased competition for skilled healthcare staff, possible minimum staffing mandates and changes in immigration policy and enforcement all make hiring harder and have already raised labour costs — and that it may not be able to offset higher labour costs by raising its rates, since those rates are largely set by government payors.
- Hospice is capped by Medicare — Each hospice provider number is subject to an inpatient cap — no more than 20% of total patient care days may be inpatient — and an aggregate annual cap on total Medicare reimbursement based on the number of Medicare patients served. Payments above either cap must be repaid to Medicare, which the company says could materially affect its financial condition, results and cash flows.
- Growth by acquisition, and the integration it requires — The company's strategy depends on managing growth and integrating what it buys; it warns that completed or future acquisitions may be unsuccessful and expose it to unforeseen liabilities, that it may be unable to pursue acquisitions or enter new regions without additional capital or lender consent, and that federal and state regulation may impair its ability to close deals or open new agencies. It also warns that a write-down of goodwill or intangible assets would materially hurt net earnings and net worth.
- Audits, investigations and the regulatory burden — Addus has been and may again be the subject of surveys, audits and investigations by government agencies and private payors, whose adverse findings could hurt the business. More broadly it warns that failure to comply with the extensive laws governing home care — including anti-kickback, false claims, privacy and employment rules on minimum wage, living wage and paid time off — could bring penalties or force changes to its operations.
- Timing of reimbursement can strain liquidity — The company lists timing differences in reimbursement among its principal risks: it pays caregivers before payors pay it. Receivables from the Illinois Department on Aging alone rose from $26.7 million at the end of 2024 to $38.3 million at the end of 2025, and represented 25.2% of net accounts receivable at December 31, 2025.
Concentración de clientes
Los principales clientes representan el 18.1% de los ingresos
Addus's customers are payors, not patients, and the largest single one is the Illinois Department on Aging, which accounted for 18.1% of net service revenues in 2025, down from 21.0% in 2024 as the Gentiva personal care acquisition diluted it. Beyond that one client, the concentration is geographic and programmatic: Illinois as a whole was 37.0% of 2025 revenue (42.1% of the personal care segment), and within personal care, state, local and other governmental programmes were 50.8% and managed care organisations 46.0% of segment revenue, with commercial insurance, private pay and other payors making up the rest. Receivables from the Illinois Department on Aging were 25.2% of net accounts receivable at December 31, 2025. The filing does not disclose a combined 'top five customers' share.
Los argumentos a favor
Buyers argue that the demographics do the work: an ageing US population needs help with daily living, and both families and payors prefer the home to the nursing home, which is cheaper. They point to the record — net service revenues of $1,422.5 million in 2025 against $1,154.6 million in 2024, and net income of $95.9 million against $73.6 million — and to a fragmented industry of many small agencies in which a company with 262 offices, 23 states and 50,659 employees can keep buying share, as it did with four acquisitions in 2025 and the Gentiva personal care business in December 2024. They argue that offering all three levels of care in the same market makes Addus more useful to managed care organisations that are narrowing their networks, and that the same rising burden of licensure, electronic visit verification and technology that raises Addus's costs also pushes small operators to sell. They note that Illinois has raised its in-home rate two years running, to $29.63 in 2025 and $30.80 in 2026, and that reliance on the single largest payor has fallen from 21.0% to 18.1% of revenue as the business diversifies.
Los argumentos en contra
Sellers fear that a company drawing roughly 39.3% of revenue from state and local agencies and 20.5% from Medicare has handed control of its price to legislatures. The 10-K itself says the OBBBA is expected to reduce Medicaid spending and restrict the financing mechanisms states use, and that home and community-based services are optional under Medicaid — first in line when a state cuts. They fear the geography: 37.0% of 2025 revenue from Illinois, 15.2% from Texas, 13.1% from New Mexico, and 18.1% from one client, the Illinois Department on Aging, whose budget state officials have tried to cut before. They fear the labour squeeze from the other side — the company competes for caregivers in a tight market, faces mandated minimum wages for direct service workers, and says plainly it may not be able to offset higher labour costs by raising rates. They point to the cash mechanics: Addus pays caregivers before payors pay it, and its Illinois Department on Aging receivable grew from $26.7 million to $38.3 million during 2025, reaching 25.2% of net receivables. And they note that growth has leaned on acquisitions, which carry integration risk, unforeseen liabilities and goodwill that could be written down.
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Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 23 de agosto de 2026 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
Its Provider Services division delivers home- and community-based personal care, home health and rehabilitation to Medicaid and Medicare populations, overlapping directly with all three of Addus's segments.
Privately held and the closest pure-play rival to Addus's core business, providing non-medical in-home personal care to Medicaid-eligible seniors and disabled adults, competing for the same state Medicaid and managed-care contracts and the same scarce pool of caregivers.
A diversified home care platform that provides in-home nursing, home health and hospice largely funded by Medicaid and managed-care payors, competing for the same patients, referral sources and payor contracts in overlapping states.
Operates home health and hospice agencies across fifteen mostly western and southern states, competing with Addus's clinical segments for hospital and physician referrals and for Medicare and managed-care contracts.
Balance y Liquidez
Ingresos
$1.48B
Últimos 12 meses (hasta 30/6/2026)
Beneficio Neto
$105M
Últimos 12 meses (hasta 30/6/2026)
Flujo de Caja Libre
$104M
Patrimonio Neto Total
$1.09B
Pasivo Total
$352M
Ratio de Liquidez
1.69
Cobertura de Intereses
14.91
Deuda/EBITDA
0.70
Beneficio Por Acción
Ingresos y Beneficio Neto
Flujo de Caja Libre
Desglose de Ingresos
Estado histórico
Márgenes en el tiempo
La deuda en el tiempo
Cuánto pesa la deuda
Cuadro de crecimiento
Crecimiento — Ingresos
Estimación de Valor Justo
Valor Justo
$155.41
Precio Actual
$120.83
Margen de Seguridad
+22.3%
Rango de Valor Justo
$101.02 - $209.81
Métodos de Estimación
Métricas de Valoración
Ratio P/E
21.16
ROE
8.8%
Ratio P/B
1.97
P/FCF
14.58
Margen Bruto
32.4%
ROIC
9.1%
Radar de Rentabilidad
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
9.1%
WACC
9.1%
ROIC − WACC
-0.0 pp
ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.
Criterios de Análisis Fundamental
Superado (21)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 13.17%
- ROIC 9.1%
- Gross Margin 32.4%
- P/FCF 14.58
- P/B Ratio 1.97
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 10.0%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 9.6%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 13.2%
- Analyst Consensus 85% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.04
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.54
- Net Margin Trend 7.1% vs 6.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Fallido (5)
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings Surprise avg 0.6%
- Share Dilution 5.6%
No disponible (1)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-Score
Solidez financiera fuerte
Calidad de los Beneficios
Alta calidad: beneficios respaldados por efectivo
Dilución de Acciones
Emitiendo nuevas acciones, diluyendo la participación
Gobernanza
Equipo Directivo
| Nombre | Cargo | Edad |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. R. Dirk Allison CPA | CEO & Chairman of the Board | 69 |
| Mr. Sean P. Gaffney J.D. | Executive VP & Chief Legal Officer | 45 |
| Mr. Darby Anderson | Executive VP & Chief Government Relations Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Zach Simpson | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | - |
| Mr. Michael D. Wattenbarger | Executive VP & Chief Information Officer | 54 |
| Ms. Monica Raines J.D. | Executive VP and Chief Compliance & Quality Officer | 45 |
| Mr. Roberton James Stevenson | Executive VP & Chief Human Resource Officer | 44 |
| Ms. Diane Kumarich | Senior Vice President of Payor Innovation | - |
| Mr. Tim Stewart | Senior VP of IT Infrastructure & Chief Information Security Officer | - |
| Mr. Brian Monahan | Senior Vice President of Tax | - |
Riesgo de Auditoría
4
Riesgo del Consejo
6
Riesgo de Compensación
5
Riesgo de Derechos del Accionista
7
Parte 2 · El precio y el momento de entrar
Esta parte no sirve para saber si la empresa vale: sirve para elegir cuándo comprarla, una vez que los fundamentales te han convencido. Dentro: análisis técnico, potencial, caídas históricas, exposición gamma.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ADUS, sourced from Markets Gazette.