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Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW)

NEUTRAL
Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsUnited States

Fundamental

62

Precio

$54.40

Capitalización Bursátil

$7.47B

Parte 1 · Cuánto vale la empresa

Resumen

Lamb Weston freezes potatoes into french fries and other potato products sold to restaurants, foodservice distributors and grocery stores around the world. It grows relationships with potato farmers under multi-year contracts, runs processing plants across North America, Europe, Argentina and Asia, and ships finished frozen products through a cold chain to customers who then fry or bake them for consumers. It is one of a handful of companies with the scale to supply large restaurant chains globally.

Cómo genera ingresos

Revenue comes from selling frozen potato products by the pound to restaurant chains, foodservice distributors and retailers, priced to cover the cost of raw potatoes, processing and freight, plus a margin. The single largest customer relationship is McDonald's, at roughly 15% of net sales, and the top ten customers together account for about half of revenue, so results move closely with how those large accounts are ordering. About a third of sales are outside North America.

Ingresos por segmento

North America66.5%

Sales to restaurant chains, foodservice distributors and retailers across the United States, Canada and Mexico — about two-thirds of revenue.

International33.5%

All sales outside North America, spanning Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East, served from plants on several continents.

Qué impulsa la demanda

Moderadamente cíclico

Demand tracks restaurant traffic and away-from-home eating more than the broader economy — soft restaurant traffic in Europe and an oversupply of potatoes weighed on results in fiscal 2026 even without a recession. Potato crop yields, which swing with weather each season, add a further layer of volatility on the supply side that is unrelated to economic cycles.

Riesgos clave

  • Input cost and tariff volatility — A large share of costs comes from commodities such as raw potatoes, edible oil and energy, and the company says new and retaliatory tariffs announced through 2025 and 2026 have added further volatility it may not be able to pass through in prices.
  • Customer concentration and bargaining power — Large, sophisticated customers such as major restaurant chains and retailers can resist price increases and demand promotional support, and the loss of a significant customer like McDonald's would materially hurt results.
  • Potato crop and weather risk — Extreme heat, excess rain or pests can cut potato yields and quality, while unusually favorable growing conditions can create an oversupply — as happened in fiscal 2026 in Europe — forcing the company to write off excess raw potatoes.
  • Dependence on third parties in the supply chain — The company relies on co-packers, warehousing partners and transportation providers it does not control, and disruption at any of them — from labor issues to shipping bottlenecks — can cause manufacturing delays and lost revenue.

Concentración de clientes

Los principales clientes representan el 50% de los ingresos

The ten largest customers accounted for about 50% of net sales in fiscal 2026, and McDonald's alone represented approximately 15% — the only customer above the 10% disclosure threshold.

Los argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that Lamb Weston's global processing scale and entrenched position with the largest restaurant chains, led by a decades-long relationship with McDonald's, give it pricing power and a cost structure smaller rivals cannot easily replicate as global french fry demand keeps expanding.

Los argumentos en contra

Sellers fear that dependence on a handful of giant customers cuts both ways — McDonald's alone is worth about 15% of sales — and that soft restaurant traffic, potato oversupply and new tariffs can all pressure margins at the same time, as they did in fiscal 2026.

Datos por segmento del ejercicio fiscal 2026Fuentes: Lamb Weston Holdings — Form 10-K, fiscal year 2026

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance y Liquidez

Ingresos

$6.61B

Últimos 12 meses (hasta 31/5/2026)

Beneficio Neto

$290M

Últimos 12 meses (hasta 31/5/2026)

Flujo de Caja Libre

$540M

Patrimonio Neto Total

$1.82B

Pasivo Total

$5.56B

Ratio de Liquidez

1.42

Cobertura de Intereses

-

Deuda/EBITDA

4.09

Beneficio Por Acción

Ingresos y Beneficio Neto

Flujo de Caja Libre

Desglose de Ingresos

Estado histórico

Márgenes en el tiempo

La deuda en el tiempo

Cuánto pesa la deuda

Cuadro de crecimiento

Crecimiento — Ingresos

Estimación de Valor Justo

Valoración Justa

Valor Justo

$50.08

Precio Actual

$54.40

Margen de Seguridad

-8.6%

Rango de Valor Justo

$33.59 - $66.57

Métodos de Estimación

Analyst Target:$55.25
DCF:$71.12
PE-based:$36.21
Graham Growth:$15.56
EPV:$42.39
Consenso de Analistas:Comprar (10B / 11H / 0S)
Última Sorpresa de Resultados:+35.01%

Métricas de Valoración

Ratio P/E

26.35

ROE

15.9%

Ratio P/B

4.13

P/FCF

13.95

Margen Bruto

20.6%

ROIC

7.8%

Radar de Rentabilidad

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

7.8%

WACC

5.2%

ROIC − WACC

+2.7 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Criterios de Análisis Fundamental

Superado (15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • ROIC 7.8%
  • P/FCF 13.95
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 8.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 16.1%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 12.5%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 20.5%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 3.25
  • Share Dilution -2.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Fallido (10)

  • EPS CAGR 1.17%
  • Price CAGR 3.56%
  • Gross Margin 20.6%
  • P/B Ratio 4.13
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 48% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 4.4% vs 5.5%

No disponible (3)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Solidez financiera fuerte

score
criteria

Calidad de los Beneficios

3.25

Alta calidad: beneficios respaldados por efectivo

Dilución de Acciones

-2.4%

Recomprando acciones. Favorable para el accionista

Gobernanza

Equipo Directivo

NombreCargoEdad
Mr. Jan Eli B. CrapsExecutive Chair48
Mr. Michael Jared SmithPresident, CEO & Director48
Mr. James Derek GrayChief Financial Officer58
Mr. Marc J.P.H. SchroederPresident of International54
Ms. Sylvia J. WilksChief Supply Chain Officer61
Mr. Benjamin HeseltonChief Information Officer53
Ms. Debbie HancockVice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Eryk J. Spytek J.D.General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer57
Mr. Steven J. Younes J.D.Chief Human Resources Officer59
Mr. Michael Christopher CrowleyPresident of North America52

Riesgo de Auditoría

1

Riesgo del Consejo

4

Riesgo de Compensación

2

Riesgo de Derechos del Accionista

1

Parte 2 · El precio y el momento de entrar

Esta parte no sirve para saber si la empresa vale: sirve para elegir cuándo comprarla, una vez que los fundamentales te han convencido. Dentro: análisis técnico, potencial, caídas históricas, exposición gamma.

Latest News

Recent headlines for LW, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 4/30/2026POSITIVE
    Activist Starboard Pushes for Lamb Weston to Hold Investor Day

    Activist investor Starboard Value LP is reportedly pushing Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. to schedule an investor day. The goal is for the french-fry maker to articulate a clear strategy for earnings growth. This move by Starboard, known for its aggressive engagement tactics, suggests a belief that Lamb Weston's current valuation does not reflect its potential. Investors will be looking for concrete plans and financial targets that could unlock shareholder value, potentially leading to a re-rating of the stock if management can effectively present a compelling turnaround or growth narrative.

  • 4/1/2026NEUTRAL
    Lamb Weston Earnings Are Imminent; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call

    Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings on April 1st. Analysts project earnings per share of $0.61, with a consensus revenue estimate of $1.49 billion. Recent analyst actions include Jefferies maintaining a Buy rating in October 2021, Stifel upgrading to Buy from Hold in May 2021, and Goldman Sachs downgrading to Neutral from Buy in April 2021. The upcoming earnings report will provide crucial insights into the company's performance and future outlook, influencing investor sentiment.

  • 3/2/2026NEGATIVE
    $64 Million Exit: Lamb Weston Stock Down 9% As Investor Dumps 1 Million Shares

    Lamb Weston, a leader in value-added frozen potato products, experienced a sharp 9% decline in its stock value. The downturn was triggered by an investor offloading 1 million shares, a transaction valued at $64 million. This significant divestment raises questions about investor confidence and potential future selling pressure. Market participants should assess whether this is an isolated strategic move or a signal of broader concerns that could impact the stock's performance in the near term. The event highlights the market's sensitivity to large share transactions.

via Markets Gazette