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Nel ASA (NLLSF)

NEGATIVE
IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryNorway

Fundamental

29

Precio

$2.14

Capitalización Bursátil

$3.82B

Parte 1 · Cuánto vale la empresa

Resumen

Nel ASA makes the equipment that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity, a process called electrolysis, for customers who want to produce hydrogen as an industrial input or fuel without burning fossil fuels. It sells two competing technologies — alkaline electrolysers, built at its Herøya plant in Norway, and proton-exchange-membrane (PEM) electrolysers, built in Connecticut — to industrial gas companies, energy firms and other buyers pursuing hydrogen projects. Nel spun off its hydrogen refueling-station business as a separate listed company, Cavendish Hydrogen, in mid-2024.

Cómo genera ingresos

Revenue comes from selling electrolyser equipment on a project-by-project basis, so results depend heavily on how many customers reach a final investment decision and place an order in a given period, not on repeat, predictable purchases. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 31% to NOK 963 million from NOK 1,390 million, driven by a sharp drop in alkaline-electrolyser sales that a smaller gain in PEM sales only partly offset — a sign of how lumpy and order-dependent revenue still is in an industry where large hydrogen projects are still early and often delayed.

Qué impulsa la demanda

Cíclico

Orders depend on customers committing capital to large, multi-year hydrogen production projects, decisions that are highly sensitive to government subsidies, the price of competing fossil-fuel-based hydrogen, and the cost of the renewable electricity the process consumes. When any of these turns unfavorable, customers can and do delay final investment decisions, leaving Nel's order book thin for extended periods.

Los argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that offering both alkaline and PEM technology lets Nel serve whichever projects favor either approach, that spinning off the refueling business focuses the company on its larger electrolyser opportunity, and that a rebound in PEM orders points to renewed customer interest once project financing conditions improve.

Los argumentos en contra

Sellers fear that a 31% revenue decline in a single year shows how few large hydrogen projects are actually reaching a final investment decision, that project-based orders make revenue inherently unpredictable from one year to the next, and that Nel remains unprofitable while it waits for the hydrogen market to scale.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance y Liquidez

Ingresos

$935M

Últimos 12 meses hasta el último trimestre publicado — estimación a partir de métricas por acción

Beneficio Neto

$-1.65B

Últimos 12 meses hasta el último trimestre publicado — estimación a partir de métricas por acción

Flujo de Caja Libre

$-598M

Patrimonio Neto Total

$3.60B

Pasivo Total

$218M

Ratio de Liquidez

4.00

Cobertura de Intereses

-

Deuda/EBITDA

-

Beneficio Por Acción

Ingresos y Beneficio Neto

Flujo de Caja Libre

Desglose de Ingresos

Estado histórico

Márgenes en el tiempo

La deuda en el tiempo

Cuánto pesa la deuda

Cuadro de crecimiento

Crecimiento — Ingresos

Estimación de Valor Justo

General caseValoración Justa

Valor Justo

$2.08

Precio Actual

$2.14

Margen de Seguridad

-2.9%

Rango de Valor Justo

$1.98 - $2.19

Métodos de Estimación

Analyst price target:$2.08
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not enough data to compute it
Earnings multiple (P/E):Not enough data to compute it
Graham growth formula:Not enough data to compute it
Earnings power value (EPV):Not enough data to compute it
Justified P/B:Not enough data to compute it
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$1.41
Consenso de Analistas:Vender (1B / 9H / 11S)
Última Sorpresa de Resultados:-34.95%

Métricas de Valoración

Ratio P/E

-

ROE

-30.3%

Ratio P/B

1.08

P/FCF

-

Margen Bruto

57.9%

ROIC

-25.9%

Radar de Rentabilidad

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-25.9%

WACC

7.6%

ROIC − WACC

-33.5 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Criterios de Análisis Fundamental

Superado (5)

  • Gross Margin 57.9%
  • P/B Ratio 1.08
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Current Ratio
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.1%

Fallido (10)

  • Price CAGR 0.67%
  • ROIC -25.9%
  • Operating Margin -147.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE -32.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 5% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -170.1%
  • Net Margin Trend -115.0% vs -16.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

No disponible (12)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

1/9

Preocupaciones financieras graves

score
criteria

Calidad de los Beneficios

-

Baja calidad: investigue la contabilidad

Dilución de Acciones

-

Recomprando acciones. Favorable para el accionista

Gobernanza

Equipo Directivo

NombreCargoEdad
Mr. Kjell Christian BjornsenChief Financial Officer49
Mr. Marius LøkenChief Technical Officer48
Mr. Stein Ove Erdal J.D.Chief Legal Officer46
Ms. Anne LibergChief People & Culture Officer (CHRO)-
Mr. Todd CartwrightChief Commercial Officer59
Mr. Tushar GhuwalewalaSenior VP of PEM Operations-
Ms. Birgitte NordvikChief Project Officer-
Mr. Mats BohmanVice President of Alkaline Operations-
Mr. Wilhelm FlinderHead of IR, Communications & Marketing-
Tomas TronstadManaging Director of Hyon-

Riesgo de Auditoría

1

Riesgo del Consejo

1

Riesgo de Compensación

6

Riesgo de Derechos del Accionista

1

Parte 2 · El precio y el momento de entrar

Esta parte no sirve para saber si la empresa vale: sirve para elegir cuándo comprarla, una vez que los fundamentales te han convencido. Dentro: análisis técnico, potencial, caídas históricas, exposición gamma.

Latest News

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