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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

POSITIVE
IndustrialsTruckingUnited States

Fundamental

70

Precio

$198.50

Capitalización Bursátil

$41.90B

Parte 1 · Cuánto vale la empresa

Resumen

Old Dominion Freight Line moves freight that is too small to fill a full truck — a few pallets or boxes rather than an entire trailer — picking up shipments from many customers, sorting them at regional service centers, and combining them onto trucks headed the same direction. It operates this less-than-truckload, or LTL, network itself across the United States with its own drivers, terminals and trucks rather than through franchisees or outside carriers, and adds services like expedited and guaranteed delivery.

Cómo genera ingresos

Revenue is charged per shipment, based mainly on weight and distance, so it rises and falls with how much freight moves through the economy rather than with any subscription or long-term contract base. Because the network's fixed costs — terminals, trucks and staff — barely change with volume, profitability depends heavily on keeping trucks and terminals full: a small change in shipment density can swing operating margins by a large amount in either direction.

Ventaja competitiva

Ventaja de costes · Estrecha

Decades of investment in a dense, non-union terminal network let Old Dominion run at some of the lowest costs and highest on-time delivery rates in the LTL industry, a combination that is hard for a new or smaller carrier to match quickly. That efficiency shows up in an industry-leading operating ratio, but the LTL market remains competitive on price, so the edge is durable rather than unassailable.

Qué impulsa la demanda

Cíclico

LTL shipment volumes track industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity closely, so freight demand slows sharply when the broader economy weakens — 2025 revenue fell as shipment volumes declined during a soft freight market. Pricing tends to be more resilient than volume, since carriers are reluctant to cut rates even when demand softens.

Riesgos clave

  • Freight cycle and industrial activity — Shipment volumes fall when industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity slow, as happened in 2025; revenue and profitability move directly with the broader freight cycle.
  • Fixed cost operating leverage — Terminals, trucks and drivers are largely fixed costs regardless of volume, so a drop in shipments cannot easily be matched by cost cuts, and operating margins compress quickly in a downturn.
  • Driver and labor availability — The business depends on recruiting and retaining enough qualified drivers and dock workers; a shortage or higher wage costs would raise expenses or limit how much freight the network can move.
  • Fuel price volatility — Diesel is a major operating cost; while fuel surcharges pass much of the cost through to customers, sharp price swings can still create timing mismatches that pressure margins.

Concentración de clientes

Los principales clientes representan el 16% de los ingresos

The customer base is highly diversified: the single largest customer represented about 4% of 2025 revenue, and the top 10 customers combined represented about 16%.

Los argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that Old Dominion's dense, non-union network gives it a durable cost and service advantage over LTL rivals, reflected in an industry-leading operating ratio, and that a highly diversified customer base with no meaningful concentration limits the damage any single account can do.

Los argumentos en contra

Sellers fear that the business is fundamentally tied to the industrial and freight cycle, that 2025's volume decline shows how quickly a soft economy erodes results, and that heavy fixed costs in terminals and trucks turn even a modest downturn in shipments into a larger hit to margins.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance y Liquidez

Ingresos

$5.60B

Últimos 12 meses (hasta 30/6/2026)

Beneficio Neto

$1.09B

Últimos 12 meses (hasta 30/6/2026)

Flujo de Caja Libre

$955M

Patrimonio Neto Total

$4.31B

Pasivo Total

$1.16B

Ratio de Liquidez

1.89

Cobertura de Intereses

-

Deuda/EBITDA

0.01

Beneficio Por Acción

Ingresos y Beneficio Neto

Flujo de Caja Libre

Desglose de Ingresos

Estado histórico

Márgenes en el tiempo

La deuda en el tiempo

Cuánto pesa la deuda

Cuadro de crecimiento

Crecimiento — Ingresos

Estimación de Valor Justo

Sobrevalorado

Valor Justo

$160.21

Precio Actual

$198.50

Margen de Seguridad

-23.9%

Rango de Valor Justo

$104.13 - $216.28

Métodos de Estimación

Analyst Target:$232.14
DCF:$87.55
PE-based:$179.94
Graham Growth:$142.13
EPV:$49.34
Consenso de Analistas:Comprar (14B / 15H / 2S)
Última Sorpresa de Resultados:+9.03%

Métricas de Valoración

Ratio P/E

38.75

ROE

23.7%

Ratio P/B

9.19

P/FCF

37.48

Margen Bruto

-

ROIC

22.0%

Radar de Rentabilidad

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

22.0%

WACC

11.1%

ROIC − WACC

+10.9 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Criterios de Análisis Fundamental

Superado (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.39%
  • Price CAGR 21.86%
  • ROIC 22.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 25.8%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 24.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.5%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 4.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.28
  • Share Dilution -2.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 19.4% vs 19.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Fallido (7)

  • P/FCF 37.48
  • P/B Ratio 9.19
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 45% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 3.67

No disponible (3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Señales mixtas: algunas áreas requieren atención

score
criteria

Calidad de los Beneficios

1.28

Alta calidad: beneficios respaldados por efectivo

Dilución de Acciones

-2.3%

Recomprando acciones. Favorable para el accionista

Gobernanza

Equipo Directivo

NombreCargoEdad
Mr. David S. CongdonExecutive Chairman of the Board68
Mr. Kevin M. FreemanPresident, CEO & Director66
Mr. Adam N. Satterfield CPAExecutive VP, Assistant Secretary & CFO50
Mr. Gregory B. PlemmonsExecutive VP & COO59
Mr. Ross H. ParrSenior VP of Legal Affairs, General Counsel & Secretary53
Mr. Cecil E. Overbey Jr.Senior Vice President of Strategic Development63
Mr. Earl E. CongdonChairman Emeritus & Senior Advisor94
Mr. Clayton G. BrinkerVP of Accounting & Finance and Principal Accounting Officer39
Mr. Jack Lawrence AtkinsDirector of Investor Relations-
Sam FaucetteVice President of Safety & Compliance-

Riesgo de Auditoría

5

Riesgo del Consejo

9

Riesgo de Compensación

2

Riesgo de Derechos del Accionista

9

Parte 2 · El precio y el momento de entrar

Esta parte no sirve para saber si la empresa vale: sirve para elegir cuándo comprarla, una vez que los fundamentales te han convencido. Dentro: análisis técnico, potencial, caídas históricas, exposición gamma.

Latest News

Recent headlines for ODFL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/20/2026NEGATIVE
    Here's Why Old Dominion Freight Line Stock Slumped This Week

    Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) stock experienced a significant downturn this week, despite a general recovery observed in the broader freight market. The market's anticipation of this recovery appears to have already been factored into sector stock valuations, leaving little room for further upside. Investors are likely reassessing the stock's premium in light of this 'priced-in' recovery, leading to the price slump. This suggests that while the industry fundamentals are improving, ODFL may have been overvalued based on future expectations.

via Markets Gazette