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Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)

NEUTRAL
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

Fondamental

67

Prix

$34.44

Capitalisation boursière

$7.54B

Partie 1 · Ce que vaut l'entreprise

Vue d'ensemble

Dropbox sells cloud storage and file-sharing subscriptions: customers pay a monthly or annual fee to keep files synced across devices and shared with others, rather than buying storage as a one-off purchase. Around the core storage product it has added e-signature (Dropbox Sign), document tracking (DocSend), form creation (FormSwift) and an AI-powered search tool (Dash), aiming to keep individuals, freelancers and small businesses inside one subscription instead of losing them to separate point solutions.

Comment l'entreprise gagne de l'argent

Revenue comes almost entirely from subscriptions billed to individuals, freelancers and small business teams rather than from large enterprise contracts, and the company reports it as a single business rather than in separate segments. Because storage itself has become a commodity that Microsoft and Google give away bundled into Office 365 and Google Workspace, Dropbox's ability to keep or raise prices depends on customers valuing its added tools enough to pay for a stand-alone product.

Avantage concurrentiel

Aucun avantage identifié · Aucun

Dropbox itself states that competitors with greater name recognition and larger user bases can bundle a broader range of products and undercut it on price, and that less expensive, bundled alternatives have already hurt its user growth. Files stored in Dropbox create some switching friction, but not enough to stop paying users from plateauing as Microsoft and Google give storage away for free inside suites customers already buy.

Ce qui stimule la demande

Modérément cyclique

Demand for Dropbox's core service is fairly steady — files and documents need to be stored and shared regardless of the economic cycle — but paying users have plateaued at around 18 million as free, bundled alternatives from Microsoft and Google absorb new demand. Growth now depends more on convincing existing customers to add tools like e-signature or AI search than on winning new storage customers, and small-business customers can also cut software spending in a downturn.

Principaux risques

  • Competition from larger, bundled providers — The company states that competitors such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon have greater name recognition, larger user bases and the ability to bundle storage with broader product suites, and that less expensive, bundled offerings have already hurt user growth.
  • Paying user growth has stalled — Paying users have plateaued at around 18 million, and fiscal 2025 revenue actually declined slightly year over year, reflecting weaker performance in Teams and reduced investment in FormSwift.
  • Currency exposure — About half of revenue is generated outside the United States and 27% of sales are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, so a stronger dollar reduces reported revenue relative to costs.

Concentration des clients

Les principaux clients représentent 1% du chiffre d'affaires

No single customer accounted for more than 1% of revenue in 2025, 2024 or 2023: revenue is spread across millions of individual and small-business subscribers rather than concentrated in a few large accounts.

Les arguments en faveur

Buyers argue that Dropbox's high operating margins and cash generation let it return capital to shareholders even with flat revenue, that expanding beyond storage into e-signature, document tracking and AI search gives it more to sell to an existing base with almost no customer concentration, and that a stabilized paying-user count of 18 million provides a steady subscription foundation.

Les arguments contre

Sellers worry that free, bundled storage inside Microsoft 365 and Google Workspace has commoditized Dropbox's core product and capped paying-user growth for years, that revenue actually declined slightly in 2025, and that newer tools like Dash AI have yet to prove they can offset churn in the core storage business.

Written by the editors, published on 18 août 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Bilan & Liquidités

Chiffre d'affaires

$2.53B

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Résultat net

$443M

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Flux de trésorerie libre

$931M

Capitaux propres totaux

$-1.80B

Passif total

$4.64B

Ratio de liquidité général

1.07

Couverture des intérêts

-

Dette/EBITDA

0.85

Bénéfice par action

Chiffre d'affaires & Résultat net

Flux de trésorerie libre

Décomposition du résultat

État historique

Marges dans le temps

La dette dans le temps

Le poids de la dette

Grille de la croissance

Croissance — Chiffre d'affaires

Estimation de la juste valeur

Justement valorisé

Juste valeur

$39.88

Prix actuel

$34.44

Marge de sécurité

+13.6%

Fourchette de juste valeur

$25.92 - $53.84

Méthodes d'estimation

Analyst Target:$30.67
DCF:$81.43
PE-based:$17.61
Graham Growth:$29.47
EPV:$29.36
Consensus des analystes:Vendre (1B / 6H / 9S)
Dernière surprise sur les résultats:+8.00%

Indicateurs de valorisation

Ratio P/E

19.38

ROE

-28.3%

Ratio P/B

-

P/FCF

10.67

Marge brute

79.7%

ROIC

32.3%

Radar de rentabilité

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

32.3%

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

+25.0 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Critères d'analyse fondamentale

Réussi (16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 6.76%
  • ROIC 32.3%
  • Gross Margin 79.7%
  • P/FCF 10.67
  • Operating Margin 26.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 5.7%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 8.1%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.21
  • Share Dilution -15.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Échoué (5)

  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • ROE -36.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 6% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 17.5% vs 19.2%

Indisponible (6)

  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Score F de Piotroski

6/9

Signaux mixtes : certains domaines nécessitent attention

score
criteria

Qualité des bénéfices

2.21

Qualité élevée : bénéfices soutenus par la trésorerie

Dilution du capital

-15.4%

Rachat d'actions. Favorable aux actionnaires

Gouvernance

Équipe dirigeante

NomTitreÂge
Mr. Andrew W. HoustonCo-Founder, Co-CEO & Chairman42
Mr. Ashraf AlkarmiCo-CEO & Director46
Mr. Ross TennenbaumChief Financial Officer47
Mr. Ali DasdanChief Technology Officer55
Mr. William YoonChief Legal Officer46
Ms. Sarah Elizabeth SchubachChief Accounting Officer-
Ms. Saman AsheerChief Communications Officer-

Risque d'audit

4

Risque du conseil

8

Risque de rémunération

8

Risque droits des actionnaires

10

Partie 2 · Le prix et le moment d'entrer

Cette partie ne dit pas si l'entreprise vaut la peine : elle aide à choisir quand l'acheter, une fois que les fondamentaux vous ont convaincu. À l'intérieur : analyse technique, potentiel, baisses historiques, exposition gamma.

Latest News

Recent headlines for DBX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/9/2026NEGATIVE
    Is Dropbox Stock a Buy or Sell After the CEO Sold Shares Worth $4.2 Million?

    Dropbox CEO Drew Houston offloaded 150,000 shares of the cloud storage company's stock for approximately $4.2 million. This significant insider selling, disclosed in a recent SEC filing, raises concerns among investors about the executive's confidence in the company's near-term prospects. While the sale represents a small fraction of Houston's total holdings, such large transactions can sometimes signal a lack of positive catalysts or potential headwinds ahead. Investors often interpret insider selling as a bearish signal, prompting a re-evaluation of their positions.

via Markets Gazette