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Universal Music Group N.V. (UMGNF)

NEUTRAL
Communication ServicesEntertainmentNetherlands

Fondamental

55

Prix

$14.88

Capitalisation boursière

$26.94B

Partie 1 · Ce que vaut l'entreprise

Vue d'ensemble

Universal Music Group signs recording artists and songwriters, funds and markets their music, and owns the resulting recordings and song rights, collecting money whenever that music is streamed, broadcast, licensed for film and advertising, or sold as a physical record. It is the largest of the three major music companies (alongside Sony Music and Warner Music), with a roster of labels spanning pop, hip-hop, country and classical, and it also runs a publishing arm that owns rights to the songs themselves, separate from the recordings.

Comment l'entreprise gagne de l'argent

Most revenue now comes from digital streaming subscriptions and ad-supported platforms, which pay UMG a share of subscriber fees or advertising revenue based on how often its music is played, plus fixed licensing payments negotiated directly with a handful of large platforms. A smaller share still comes from physical album sales, and Music Publishing earns separately whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, synced to video or covered by another artist, regardless of who recorded it.

Chiffre d'affaires par segment

Recorded Music75.6%

Revenue from streaming, physical sales and licensing of the recordings UMG owns or distributes for its signed artists.

Music Publishing17.6%

Royalties earned whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, streamed, synced to video or covered by another artist.

Merchandising and other6.8%

Artist merchandise and other smaller revenue lines not broken out separately.

Ce qui stimule la demande

Défensif

Music listening is a habitual, low-cost activity that holds up well across the economic cycle, and most revenue now comes from recurring subscriptions rather than discretionary purchases. Growth instead depends on how fast streaming subscriptions and pricing keep expanding worldwide, and on the terms UMG can negotiate with a small number of dominant streaming platforms it depends on for distribution.

Principaux risques

  • Streaming growth may slow — The company names the failure of streaming and subscription adoption or revenue to grow, or to grow as rapidly as anticipated, as a key risk to its results.
  • Dependence on a few digital platforms — UMG relies on a small number of large digital service providers for distribution; changes those platforms make to subscription pricing, royalty structures or recommendation algorithms can directly affect UMG's revenue growth.
  • Generative AI and copyright uncertainty — The company faces uncertainty from evolving copyright, data privacy and artificial intelligence regulation in the US and Europe, as generative AI raises new questions about how music rights are used and compensated.
  • Competition to sign and retain artists — The company names its ability to compete successfully to identify, attract, sign and retain successful recording artists and songwriters as a material risk, since the roster of talent is the source of everything else it sells.

Written by the editors, published on 18 août 2026

Direct competitors

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Bilan & Liquidités

Chiffre d'affaires

$18.78B

12 derniers mois jusqu'au dernier trimestre publié — estimation à partir de ratios par action

Résultat net

$322M

12 derniers mois jusqu'au dernier trimestre publié — estimation à partir de ratios par action

Flux de trésorerie libre

$1.79B

Capitaux propres totaux

$4.55B

Passif total

$5.56B

Ratio de liquidité général

0.61

Couverture des intérêts

-

Dette/EBITDA

2.52

Bénéfice par action

Chiffre d'affaires & Résultat net

Flux de trésorerie libre

Décomposition du résultat

État historique

Marges dans le temps

La dette dans le temps

Le poids de la dette

Grille de la croissance

Croissance — Chiffre d'affaires

Estimation de la juste valeur

Surévalué

Juste valeur

$11.27

Prix actuel

$14.88

Marge de sécurité

-32.0%

Fourchette de juste valeur

$7.33 - $15.22

Méthodes d'estimation

Analyst Target:$21.85
DCF:$11.49
PE-based:$3.06
Graham Growth:$1.95
EPV:$16.85
Consensus des analystes:Acheter (15B / 9H / 3S)
Dernière surprise sur les résultats:+10.28%

Indicateurs de valorisation

Ratio P/E

84.24

ROE

7.7%

Ratio P/B

7.37

P/FCF

15.04

Marge brute

28.6%

ROIC

14.9%

Radar de rentabilité

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

14.9%

WACC

9.1%

ROIC − WACC

+5.8 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Critères d'analyse fondamentale

Réussi (12)

  • ROIC 14.9%
  • P/FCF 15.04
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 22.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 7.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 11.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 56% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 8.1%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.08

Échoué (9)

  • Price CAGR -7.56%
  • Gross Margin 28.6%
  • P/B Ratio 7.37
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • PEG Ratio 4.33
  • Net Margin Trend 12.3% vs 17.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Indisponible (6)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Score F de Piotroski

2/9

Préoccupations financières sérieuses

score
criteria

Qualité des bénéfices

1.08

Qualité élevée : bénéfices soutenus par la trésorerie

Dilution du capital

-

Rachat d'actions. Favorable aux actionnaires

Gouvernance

Équipe dirigeante

NomTitreÂge
Sir Lucian Grainge CBEChairman & CEO65
Mr. Vincent VallejoDeputy CEO of Corporate & Executive Director64
Mr. Matthew D. EllisChief Financial Officer54
Mr. Boyd MuirExecutive VP & COO65
Mr. Will TanousExecutive VP & Chief Administrative Officer56
Mr. Jeffrey Harleston J.D.General Counsel and Executive VP of Business & Legal Affairs63
Mr. Eric HutchersonExecutive VP and Chief People & Inclusion Officer55
Mr. Michael NashExecutive VP & Chief Digital Officer68
Ms. Tseyin FooPresident of Global Supply Chain-
Mr. Philippe FlageulExecutive VP & Controller60

Risque d'audit

4

Risque du conseil

1

Risque de rémunération

10

Risque droits des actionnaires

4

Partie 2 · Le prix et le moment d'entrer

Cette partie ne dit pas si l'entreprise vaut la peine : elle aide à choisir quand l'acheter, une fois que les fondamentaux vous ont convaincu. À l'intérieur : analyse technique, potentiel, baisses historiques, exposition gamma.

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