ASM International NV (ASMXF)

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ASM sells deposition equipment as capital goods: a customer buys or upgrades a tool as part of a new fab or process node, then keeps buying spare parts and service for years afterward. Because chipmakers only invest in new nodes when they expect strong demand, ASM's order book swings with the broader semiconductor capital-spending cycle. In 2025, demand for the newest 2-nanometer logic technology drove a record year, while memory-chip customers bought less than usual.

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ASM holds a leading share, reported above 55% in the markets it competes in, of atomic layer deposition — a process step increasingly required as chipmakers shrink transistors further. That lead rests on patented process know-how built over decades rather than on customer switching costs, and rival equipment makers are investing to close the gap as ALD becomes more central to chipmaking.

Orders depend on how much the handful of major chipmakers plan to spend on new factories and process nodes, a decision driven by their own demand forecasts for chips — famously volatile in itself. A wave of AI-driven investment in advanced nodes can be followed by a pause once that capacity is built, as ASM's swing between strong logic demand and weak memory demand in 2025 illustrates.