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Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

NEUTRAL
Financial ServicesCredit ServicesUnited States

Fondamentale

43

Prezzo

$30.23

Capitalizzazione

$2.90B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale l'azienda

Panoramica

Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

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Stato Patrimoniale e Liquidità

Ricavi

$1.25B

Ultimi 12 mesi (al 30/06/2026)

Utile Netto

$60M

Ultimi 12 mesi (al 30/06/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$-148M

Patrimonio Netto Totale

$799M

Passività Totali

$2.18B

Rapporto di Liquidità

2.15

Copertura Interessi

0.51

Debito/EBITDA

30.02

Utile per Azione

Ricavi e Utile Netto

Free Cash Flow

Scomposizione Ricavi

Prospetto storico

Margini nel tempo

Il debito nel tempo

Quanto pesa il debito

Griglia della crescita

Crescita — Ricavi

Stima del Fair Value

Correttamente Valutato

Fair Value

$38.57

Prezzo Attuale

$30.23

Margine di Sicurezza

+21.6%

Range Fair Value

$25.07 - $52.07

Metodi di Stima

Analyst Target:$40.60
DCF:$55.88
PE-based:$4.78
Graham Growth:$26.77
EPV:$2.28
Consenso Analisti:Buy (13B / 7H / 1S)
Ultima Sorpresa Utili:+4.63%

Metriche di Valutazione

Rapporto P/E

57.48

ROE

6.7%

Rapporto P/B

3.65

P/FCF

-

Margine Lordo

-

ROIC

-

Radar Redditività

Creazione di Valore (Vantaggio Competitivo)

ROIC

-

WACC

12.1%

ROIC − WACC

-

Criteri di Analisi Fondamentale

Superati (8)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 8.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 34.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 62% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.09
  • Net Margin Trend 4.8% vs -0.7%

Non superati (13)

  • Price CAGR -4.82%
  • P/B Ratio 3.65
  • Operating Margin 4.0%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.6%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) -4.71
  • Share Dilution 33.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

Non disponibili (6)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio

Piotroski F-Score

4/9

Segnali misti: alcune aree necessitano attenzione

score
criteria

Qualità degli Utili

-4.71

Bassa qualità: indagare la contabilità

Diluizione Azionaria

33.4%

Emissione nuove azioni, diluizione proprietà

Governance

Team Dirigenziale

NomeRuoloEtà
Mr. David J. GirouardExecutive Chairman & Special Advisor59
Mr. Paul GuCEO & Director34
Mr. Scott Darling Esq.Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary53
Mr. Sanjay Datta CFAPresident of Capital & Enterprise-
Ms. Andrea BlankmeyerChief Financial Officer-
Natalia MirgorodskayaChief Accounting Officer-
Mr. Grant SchneiderChief Technology Officer-
Ms. Sonya BanerjeeHead of Investor Relations-
Ms. Annie DelgadoChief Compliance Officer & Chief Risk Officer-
Ms. Chantal RapportChief Marketing Officer-

Rischio Audit

4

Rischio CdA

8

Rischio Compensi

8

Rischio Diritti Azionisti

8

Parte 2 · Il prezzo e il momento d'ingresso

Questa parte non serve a capire se l'azienda vale: serve a scegliere quando comprarla, dopo che i fondamentali ti hanno convinto. Dentro: analisi tecnica, potenziale, drawdown storici, esposizione gamma.

Ultime Notizie

Ultime notizie per UPST, da Markets Gazette.

  • 21d agoPOSITIVE
    Upstart’s AI upgrades pay off, as a pickup in loan growth helps send the stock higher

    Upstart Holdings Inc. has reported positive results from its AI model enhancements, which are designed to improve borrower risk assessment. This strategic upgrade, coupled with a noticeable pickup in loan origination volumes, has contributed to a significant rise in the company's stock price. The company's focus on leveraging artificial intelligence to refine its lending platform appears to be yielding tangible financial benefits, signaling a potential turnaround and increased investor confidence in its growth trajectory.

  • 6/15/2026POSITIVE
    Upstart Holdings Has The 'The Right Tonic To Get The Stock Back On Track'

    Upstart Holdings (UPST) is charting a course for recovery, focusing on near-prime personal loans and AI-driven underwriting. The company has reaffirmed its 'Buy' rating with a $37 price target, projecting an ambitious 35% revenue growth by 2028 and exploring expansion into new asset classes. While margins might face pressure in 2026, management's new investment strategy signals a commitment to long-term success. The stock reacted positively, surging 9.20% to $33.30. This strategic pivot, coupled with analyst support, suggests a potential turnaround for the fintech firm.

  • 5/5/2026NEGATIVE
    Upstart’s stock is getting punished after earnings. Here’s the big gripe.

    Upstart Holdings Inc. experienced a significant stock price decline following its latest earnings report, primarily due to missing a key profit metric. The company's AI-driven lending platform, which aims to disrupt traditional credit scoring, appears to have underperformed expectations. While CEO Dave Girouard suggested that analysts might have miscalculated seasonal trends, the market's reaction indicates investor concern over profitability and the accuracy of the company's financial projections. This miss raises questions about the sustainability of Upstart's business model and its ability to consistently meet financial targets, potentially impacting future growth prospects.

  • 4/15/2026POSITIVE
    What's Behind The Boost In Upstart Holdings Stock Today?

    Upstart Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) experienced a significant price surge today, driven by BTIG's reaffirmation of its rating and price target. While specific details of BTIG's rationale were not disclosed, the maintenance of existing targets suggests continued confidence in Upstart's business model and future prospects. This analyst endorsement provides a positive catalyst for the stock, potentially attracting further investor interest and reinforcing its upward momentum. Investors will be watching for further updates on Upstart's lending platform performance and its ability to navigate the evolving fintech landscape.

  • 3/17/2026POSITIVE
    Upstart Stock Gains On BTIG Upgrade, $1B Forward-Flow Deal

    Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) shares experienced a notable increase following an upgrade from BTIG to a 'Buy' rating. This positive analyst sentiment, coupled with news of a significant $1 billion forward-flow deal, suggests growing confidence in Upstart's business model and future revenue streams. The upgrade implies that analysts believe the stock is undervalued or poised for substantial growth, potentially driven by improved lending platform performance and strategic partnerships. Investors are likely reacting to the dual catalysts of analyst endorsement and a substantial financial commitment, signaling a potentially favorable outlook for the company's stock.

  • 3/16/2026POSITIVE
    Upstart’s stock rises as analyst says investors have been ignoring a key catalyst

    BTIG analyst initiated coverage on Upstart Holdings Inc. with a buy rating and a price target suggesting 55% upside. The analyst highlights the potential for Upstart to secure a banking charter as a key catalyst. This move could significantly de-risk the company's business model by reducing its reliance on volatile private credit markets and potentially improving its balance sheet. Investors are advised to consider this strategic shift as a major positive development for the fintech firm's future profitability and stability.

  • 3/14/2026NEGATIVE
    Should You Invest $1,000 in Upstart Right Now?

    Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST), a prominent player in the fintech lending space, has experienced a significant downturn, with its stock price plummeting 36% year-to-date in 2026. This sharp decline raises concerns for investors regarding the company's near-term prospects and its ability to recover from recent market pressures. The performance suggests potential headwinds in its business model or broader market sentiment impacting growth-oriented technology stocks.

  • 3/10/2026POSITIVE
    Upstart Stock Pops After The Close: Here's Why

    Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) shares surged in after-hours trading following the announcement of its intention to apply for a national bank charter. This strategic move signals a significant shift in Upstart's business model, potentially allowing it to directly originate and hold loans, thereby capturing more of the value chain and reducing reliance on third-party banking partners. Investors are likely viewing this as a positive development, anticipating increased profitability and greater control over its lending operations. The news suggests a proactive approach to expanding its financial services capabilities and could unlock new avenues for growth.

  • 3/6/2026NEGATIVE
    Why Upstart Plunged in February

    Although Upstart beat revenue and earnings expectations for the quarter, the stock plunged in February. Investors appeared concerned over margin guidance and take rates. The positive financial performance was overshadowed by worries about future profitability and the platform's ability to maintain its effectiveness in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. For investors, this signals growing caution regarding the long-term sustainability of Upstart's business model, despite positive short-term results.

  • 2/27/2026NEUTRAL
    Upstart Is Down 65% From Its 52-Week High. Should You Buy the Stock Now?

    Upstart, the AI-powered lending platform, recently released an earnings report described as "quite solid," a detail that would typically inspire investor confidence. However, despite these positive results, the stock experienced a significant dive, plummeting 65% from its 52-week high. This scenario presents a dilemma for investors: is the negative market reaction a buying opportunity at a discounted price, given the company's fundamental solidity, or a signal of underlying concerns not immediately apparent? The divergence between corporate performance and market valuation necessitates thorough analysis to determine the stock's future direction.

via Markets Gazette