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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)

NEUTRAL
IndustrialsRailroadsCanada

Fundamental

53

Preço

$94.53

Capitalização de Mercado

$83.62B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa

Visão Geral

Canadian Pacific Kansas City runs a single freight railway connecting Canada, the United States and Mexico under one network — the only one of its kind since the 2023 merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern. It hauls bulk commodities such as grain, coal and potash, merchandise freight like forest products, chemicals, metals and automotive parts, and intermodal containers, moving goods over track it owns rather than shares with competitors.

Como gera receita

Revenue comes from freight rates charged per carload or container, which vary by commodity, distance and contract terms; some grain traffic in western Canada is capped by a government-set revenue formula rather than freely negotiated. Because the railway owns its own track, most operating costs are fixed regardless of volume, so profit is highly sensitive to how much freight actually moves over the network rather than to price alone.

Receita por segmento

Merchandise46%

Forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products and automotive parts — the largest and most varied freight category. Share of freight revenue.

Bulk36%

Grain, coal, potash and fertilizers moved in unit trains — commodities produced in large, predictable volumes. Share of freight revenue.

Intermodal18%

Containers moved between ports, terminals and customers, competing directly with long-haul trucking. Share of freight revenue.

Vantagem competitiva

Vantagem de custo · Ampla

Building a second transcontinental railway alongside an existing one is not economically rational, so CPKC's track competes against trucking more than against another railway on most routes. Owning the only single-line network connecting Canada, the US and Mexico after the Kansas City Southern merger gives it routes competitors cannot simply build to match.

O que impulsiona a procura

Moderadamente cíclico

Demand is a mix: grain and potash volumes follow harvests and global agricultural demand more than the economic cycle, while merchandise freight — automotive parts, metals, chemicals — and intermodal containers move with industrial production and consumer spending. That blend cushions the network against a single downturn, but currency swings and fuel prices still move margins on every shipment.

Principais riscos

  • Dependence on key suppliers — The company depends on a limited number of suppliers for core railway equipment and materials, and disruption within the broader supply chain — ports, terminals, other railways — can hurt operating efficiency and raise costs.
  • Fuel price volatility — Fuel is a significant share of operating costs. A fuel cost adjustment program mitigates but does not eliminate exposure to sharp price swings from supply shortages or geopolitical disruption.
  • Three-currency exposure — Operating across Canada, the US and Mexico exposes results to swings in the Canadian dollar, US dollar and Mexican peso, and debt taken on for the Kansas City Southern acquisition limits financial flexibility.
  • Merger integration risk — The company may fail to fully realize the cost savings, growth opportunities and synergies expected from the Kansas City Southern merger, and remains subject to continuing regulatory obligations from that transaction.

Concentração de clientes

The company states that for both 2025 and 2024 its revenues and operations were not dependent on any major customer — freight volume is spread across many shippers and commodities.

Os argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that being the only railway with a single-line route from Canada through the US to Mexico gives CPKC network advantages competitors cannot replicate, and that a freight mix spread across bulk, merchandise and intermodal, with no dependence on any single customer, makes revenue more resilient than a typical industrial company's.

Os argumentos contra

Sellers fear that the debt taken on for the Kansas City Southern merger, exposure to three currencies, and dependence on diesel fuel leave margins vulnerable to macro shocks outside the company's control, and that realizing the promised synergies from combining two railways takes longer or costs more than planned.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balanço & Liquidez

Receita

$15.45B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Resultado Líquido

$3.86B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

-

Capital Próprio Total

$46.83B

Passivo Total

$39.12B

Rácio de Liquidez

0.59

Cobertura de Juros

-

Dívida/EBITDA

3.05

Resultados Por Ação

Receita & Resultado Líquido

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

Decomposição dos Resultados

Demonstração histórica

Margens ao longo do tempo

A dívida ao longo do tempo

Quanto pesa a dívida

Grelha do crescimento

Crescimento — Receitas

Estimativa de Valor Justo

Sobrevalorizada

Valor Justo

$75.21

Preço Atual

$94.53

Margem de Segurança

-25.7%

Intervalo de Valor Justo

$56.13 - $94.29

Métodos de Estimativa

Analyst Target:$101.30
DCF:$61.38
PE-based:$68.01
Graham Growth:$48.82
EPV:$60.32
Consenso dos Analistas:Compra Forte (29B / 6H / 0S)
Última Surpresa de Resultados:-0.36%

Métricas de Avaliação

Rácio P/E

21.97

ROE

8.8%

Rácio P/B

1.75

P/FCF

-

Margem Bruta

-

ROIC

5.4%

Radar de Rentabilidade

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

5.4%

WACC

6.9%

ROIC − WACC

-1.5 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Critérios de Análise Fundamental

Aprovado (14)

  • Price CAGR 12.97%
  • ROIC 5.4%
  • P/B Ratio 1.75
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 36.8%
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 8.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 14.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 83% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.42
  • Share Dilution -1.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Reprovado (8)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -6.74%
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -3.7%
  • PEG Ratio 6.29
  • Net Margin Trend 27.4% vs 31.2%

Indisponível (6)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Sinais mistos: algumas áreas requerem atenção

score
criteria

Qualidade dos Resultados

1.42

Alta qualidade: resultados respaldados por caixa

Diluição de Ações

-1.5%

A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista

Governação

Equipa Executiva

NomeCargoIdade
Mr. Keith E. CreelCEO, President & Director56
Mr. Nadeem S. VelaniExecutive VP & CFO52
Mr. Mark A. ReddExecutive VP & COO54
Mr. John Kenneth BrooksExecutive VP & Chief Marketing Officer54
Mr. James Dominic Luther ClementsExecutive Vice-President of Strategic Planning & Corporate Services55
Ms. Pamela Lynne ArpinSenior VP & Chief Information Officer49
Ms. Cassandra P. QuachVP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary51
Ms. Maeghan AlbistonSenior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer42
Mr. Laird Joseph PitzSenior VP & Chief Risk Officer80
Corey HeinzManaging Director of Asia-

Risco de Auditoria

3

Risco do Conselho

2

Risco de Remuneração

8

Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas

3

Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar

Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.

Latest News

Recent headlines for CP, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/15/2026POSITIVE
    $1000 Invested In Canadian Pacific Kansas 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) made 15 years ago would have grown substantially, highlighting the company's strong long-term performance. While specific figures are not provided in the title, such a scenario typically implies significant capital appreciation and potentially dividend reinvestment over the period. This underscores CP's historical ability to generate value for shareholders, driven by factors such as operational efficiency, strategic acquisitions (like the Kansas City Southern merger), and its critical role in North American supply chains. Investors considering long-term holdings may find this historical performance indicative of future potential.

  • 6/11/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $1000 In Canadian Pacific Kansas Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) stock twenty years ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the long-term growth potential of the railway operator. While specific figures are not provided in this summary, the article implies significant capital appreciation and potential dividend reinvestment over two decades. This historical performance underscores CP's resilience and ability to generate value for shareholders through operational efficiency and strategic acquisitions, making it a noteworthy consideration for long-term portfolio strategies.

via Markets Gazette