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Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)

NEUTRAL
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

Fundamental

67

Preço

$34.66

Capitalização de Mercado

$7.54B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa

Visão Geral

Dropbox sells cloud storage and file-sharing subscriptions: customers pay a monthly or annual fee to keep files synced across devices and shared with others, rather than buying storage as a one-off purchase. Around the core storage product it has added e-signature (Dropbox Sign), document tracking (DocSend), form creation (FormSwift) and an AI-powered search tool (Dash), aiming to keep individuals, freelancers and small businesses inside one subscription instead of losing them to separate point solutions.

Como gera receita

Revenue comes almost entirely from subscriptions billed to individuals, freelancers and small business teams rather than from large enterprise contracts, and the company reports it as a single business rather than in separate segments. Because storage itself has become a commodity that Microsoft and Google give away bundled into Office 365 and Google Workspace, Dropbox's ability to keep or raise prices depends on customers valuing its added tools enough to pay for a stand-alone product.

Vantagem competitiva

Nenhuma vantagem identificada · Nenhuma

Dropbox itself states that competitors with greater name recognition and larger user bases can bundle a broader range of products and undercut it on price, and that less expensive, bundled alternatives have already hurt its user growth. Files stored in Dropbox create some switching friction, but not enough to stop paying users from plateauing as Microsoft and Google give storage away for free inside suites customers already buy.

O que impulsiona a procura

Moderadamente cíclico

Demand for Dropbox's core service is fairly steady — files and documents need to be stored and shared regardless of the economic cycle — but paying users have plateaued at around 18 million as free, bundled alternatives from Microsoft and Google absorb new demand. Growth now depends more on convincing existing customers to add tools like e-signature or AI search than on winning new storage customers, and small-business customers can also cut software spending in a downturn.

Principais riscos

  • Competition from larger, bundled providers — The company states that competitors such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon have greater name recognition, larger user bases and the ability to bundle storage with broader product suites, and that less expensive, bundled offerings have already hurt user growth.
  • Paying user growth has stalled — Paying users have plateaued at around 18 million, and fiscal 2025 revenue actually declined slightly year over year, reflecting weaker performance in Teams and reduced investment in FormSwift.
  • Currency exposure — About half of revenue is generated outside the United States and 27% of sales are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, so a stronger dollar reduces reported revenue relative to costs.

Concentração de clientes

Os principais clientes representam 1% da receita

No single customer accounted for more than 1% of revenue in 2025, 2024 or 2023: revenue is spread across millions of individual and small-business subscribers rather than concentrated in a few large accounts.

Os argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that Dropbox's high operating margins and cash generation let it return capital to shareholders even with flat revenue, that expanding beyond storage into e-signature, document tracking and AI search gives it more to sell to an existing base with almost no customer concentration, and that a stabilized paying-user count of 18 million provides a steady subscription foundation.

Os argumentos contra

Sellers worry that free, bundled storage inside Microsoft 365 and Google Workspace has commoditized Dropbox's core product and capped paying-user growth for years, that revenue actually declined slightly in 2025, and that newer tools like Dash AI have yet to prove they can offset churn in the core storage business.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balanço & Liquidez

Receita

$2.53B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Resultado Líquido

$443M

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

$931M

Capital Próprio Total

$-1.80B

Passivo Total

$4.64B

Rácio de Liquidez

1.07

Cobertura de Juros

-

Dívida/EBITDA

0.85

Resultados Por Ação

Receita & Resultado Líquido

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

Decomposição dos Resultados

Demonstração histórica

Margens ao longo do tempo

A dívida ao longo do tempo

Quanto pesa a dívida

Grelha do crescimento

Crescimento — Receitas

Estimativa de Valor Justo

Justamente Valorizada

Valor Justo

$39.88

Preço Atual

$34.66

Margem de Segurança

+13.1%

Intervalo de Valor Justo

$25.92 - $53.84

Métodos de Estimativa

Analyst Target:$30.67
DCF:$81.43
PE-based:$17.61
Graham Growth:$29.47
EPV:$29.36
Consenso dos Analistas:Vender (1B / 6H / 9S)
Última Surpresa de Resultados:+8.00%

Métricas de Avaliação

Rácio P/E

19.38

ROE

-28.3%

Rácio P/B

-

P/FCF

10.67

Margem Bruta

79.7%

ROIC

32.3%

Radar de Rentabilidade

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

32.3%

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

+25.0 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Critérios de Análise Fundamental

Aprovado (16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 6.76%
  • ROIC 32.3%
  • Gross Margin 79.7%
  • P/FCF 10.67
  • Operating Margin 26.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 5.7%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 8.1%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.21
  • Share Dilution -15.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Reprovado (5)

  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • ROE -36.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 6% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 17.5% vs 19.2%

Indisponível (6)

  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Sinais mistos: algumas áreas requerem atenção

score
criteria

Qualidade dos Resultados

2.21

Alta qualidade: resultados respaldados por caixa

Diluição de Ações

-15.4%

A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista

Governação

Equipa Executiva

NomeCargoIdade
Mr. Andrew W. HoustonCo-Founder, Co-CEO & Chairman42
Mr. Ashraf AlkarmiCo-CEO & Director46
Mr. Ross TennenbaumChief Financial Officer47
Mr. Ali DasdanChief Technology Officer55
Mr. William YoonChief Legal Officer46
Ms. Sarah Elizabeth SchubachChief Accounting Officer-
Ms. Saman AsheerChief Communications Officer-

Risco de Auditoria

4

Risco do Conselho

8

Risco de Remuneração

8

Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas

10

Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar

Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.

Latest News

Recent headlines for DBX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/9/2026NEGATIVE
    Is Dropbox Stock a Buy or Sell After the CEO Sold Shares Worth $4.2 Million?

    Dropbox CEO Drew Houston offloaded 150,000 shares of the cloud storage company's stock for approximately $4.2 million. This significant insider selling, disclosed in a recent SEC filing, raises concerns among investors about the executive's confidence in the company's near-term prospects. While the sale represents a small fraction of Houston's total holdings, such large transactions can sometimes signal a lack of positive catalysts or potential headwinds ahead. Investors often interpret insider selling as a bearish signal, prompting a re-evaluation of their positions.

via Markets Gazette