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Genmab A/S (GMAB)

POSITIVE
HealthcareBiotechnologyDenmark

Fundamental

80

Preço

$33.41

Capitalização de Mercado

$20.56B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa

Visão Geral

Genmab, a Danish biotech, discovers antibody drugs and then largely lets bigger pharmaceutical companies manufacture and sell them, collecting a royalty on those sales instead. Its most important invention, daratumumab, is a multiple-myeloma antibody that Johnson & Johnson sells worldwide as DARZALEX; Genmab gets a cut of every dose sold. It also sells two of its own antibody drugs directly, EPKINLY/TEPKINLY for lymphoma, and keeps a pipeline of earlier-stage antibodies aimed at cancer and other diseases.

Como gera receita

Most revenue is royalty income: a contractual percentage of what Johnson & Johnson and Novartis book selling DARZALEX and Kesimpta, which Genmab receives without bearing the cost of manufacturing, marketing or a sales force for those drugs. A smaller and faster-growing slice is net product sales from EPKINLY/TEPKINLY, which Genmab commercializes itself in some territories. The royalty model keeps margins very high but ties most of Genmab's fortunes to a single antibody it does not control commercially.

Receita por segmento

Royalty revenue83.4%

Contractual royalties on DARZALEX sales by Johnson & Johnson and Kesimpta sales by Novartis, the core of Genmab's income.

Net product sales10.2%

Direct sales of EPKINLY/TEPKINLY, the lymphoma antibody Genmab commercializes itself in the territories it retains.

Milestone, collaboration and other revenue6.4%

One-time and reimbursement payments from partners tied to development progress, a small and less predictable part of total revenue.

Vantagem competitiva

Patentes e licenças · Estreita

Genmab's royalty stream is protected by patents on daratumumab and by an exclusive license that bars Genmab itself from developing a competing antibody against the same CD38 target. That protection is time-limited: the relevant patents begin expiring in the late 2020s and early 2030s across the US, Europe and Japan, after which royalty rates and revenue are expected to decline.

O que impulsiona a procura

Defensivo

Cancer treatment spending is not discretionary: patients and physicians do not defer chemotherapy or a myeloma drug because of the economy, and the drugs are largely covered by insurance or national health systems. Genmab's own revenue growth depends more on how many patients Johnson & Johnson's sales force reaches with DARZALEX and on Genmab's own launch execution for EPKINLY than on macroeconomic conditions.

Principais riscos

  • Dependence on a single partnered drug — About two-thirds of revenue comes from DARZALEX royalties, a drug Genmab does not manufacture or sell itself. Genmab's fortunes hinge on decisions and execution by Johnson & Johnson, a company it does not control.
  • Patent expiration reduces future royalties — Core daratumumab patents begin expiring around 2029 in the US and later in Europe and Japan; once they lapse, generic or biosimilar competition is expected to erode DARZALEX sales and Genmab's royalty income with them.
  • Disputes with licensing partners — Genmab has previously entered binding arbitration with Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) over terms of the daratumumab license agreement, showing that even its most important partnership is not free of contractual disagreement.
  • Manufacturing reliance on third parties — Genmab relies on a limited number of third-party contract manufacturers, some based in China, to produce the antibody drugs it sells directly, exposing it to supply disruption or geopolitical trade risk.

Concentração de clientes

Os principais clientes representam 66% da receita

DARZALEX royalties from Johnson & Johnson alone accounted for about 66% of Genmab's 2025 revenue. A change in DARZALEX sales, pricing or J&J's marketing effort moves the majority of Genmab's income.

Os argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that royalty income on a market-leading, still-growing drug like DARZALEX carries almost no commercial cost or execution risk for Genmab, that EPKINLY's rapid growth shows the company can also succeed as a direct seller, and that years remain before the daratumumab patent cliff meaningfully dents revenue.

Os argumentos contra

Sellers worry that a company earning two-thirds of its revenue from one partner's drug has limited control over its own destiny, that the patent cliff later this decade will eventually shrink the royalty stream that funds everything else, and that Genmab's own commercial drugs are not yet large enough to replace that income if the transition goes slowly.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

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Balanço & Liquidez

Receita

$4.13B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Resultado Líquido

$788M

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

$1.13B

Capital Próprio Total

$5.85B

Passivo Total

$7.03B

Rácio de Liquidez

2.02

Cobertura de Juros

20.49

Dívida/EBITDA

3.95

Resultados Por Ação

Receita & Resultado Líquido

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

Decomposição dos Resultados

Demonstração histórica

Margens ao longo do tempo

A dívida ao longo do tempo

Quanto pesa a dívida

Grelha do crescimento

Crescimento — Receitas

Estimativa de Valor Justo

General caseSubvalorizada

Valor Justo

$141.64

Preço Atual

$33.41

Margem de Segurança

+76.4%

Intervalo de Valor Justo

$92.06 - $191.21

Métodos de Estimativa

Analyst price target:$38.84
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$426.56
Earnings multiple (P/E):$23.97
Graham growth formula:$24.55
Earnings power value (EPV):$168.18
Justified P/B:$185.42
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$250.44
Consenso dos Analistas:Comprar (21B / 3H / 2S)
Última Surpresa de Resultados:+36.61%

Métricas de Avaliação

Rácio P/E

21.58

ROE

13.6%

Rácio P/B

0.35

P/FCF

1.82

Margem Bruta

93.6%

ROIC

8.6%

Radar de Rentabilidade

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

8.6%

WACC

7.8%

ROIC − WACC

+0.8 pp

ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.

Critérios de Análise Fundamental

Aprovado (19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.44%
  • Price CAGR 7.27%
  • ROIC 8.6%
  • Gross Margin 93.6%
  • P/FCF 1.82
  • P/B Ratio 0.35
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 33.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 13.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 19.2%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy

Reprovado (3)

  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.8%
  • PEG Ratio 3.49
  • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

Indisponível (6)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)
  • Net Margin Trend (invalid data)

Piotroski F-Score

1/9

Preocupações financeiras graves

score
criteria

Qualidade dos Resultados

-

Baixa qualidade: investigar a contabilidade

Diluição de Ações

-

A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista

Governação

Equipa Executiva

NomeCargoIdade
Dr. Jan G.J. van de Winkel Ph.D.Co-Founder, President & CEO64
Mr. Anthony Pagano CPAExecutive VP & CFO47
Mr. Rayne WallerExecutive VP & Chief Technical Operations Officer57
Mr. Gregory David Emil MuellerExecutive VP, General Counsel & Chief Legal Officer54
Mr. Christopher CozicExecutive VP & Chief People Officer47
Dr. Martine J. van Vugt Ph.D.Executive VP & Chief Strategy Officer54
Mr. Martin SchultzSenior Director, Head of Development Business Partnership & Strategy and Director50
Dr. Judith V. Klimovsky M.D.Executive VP & Chief Development Officer67
Dr. Tahamtan Ahmadi M.D., Ph.D.Executive VP, Chief Medical Officer & Head of Experimental Medicines52
Dr. Mijke Zachariasse Ph.D.VP, Head of Antibody Research Materials & Director52

Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar

Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.

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