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Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)

NEUTRAL
IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseGermany

Fundamental

54

Preço

$87.08

Capitalização de Mercado

$10.22B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa

Visão Geral

HENSOLDT is a German defense electronics maker: it builds the radars, sensors, cameras and targeting optics that let military platforms see, track and aim, rather than making the aircraft, ships or vehicles themselves. Its equipment goes onto programs like the Eurofighter jet, the P-8 Poseidon patrol aircraft, and Leopard 2 tanks, sold mainly to European and NATO armed forces.

Como gera receita

Revenue comes from long-cycle defense contracts: governments order equipment years in advance, HENSOLDT books the order as backlog and recognizes revenue as it develops, produces and delivers the systems, followed by years of maintenance and upgrade work on equipment already in the field. Growth therefore shows up first as order intake, which converts into revenue only gradually as programs move from contract to delivery.

Receita por segmento

Sensors83.1%

Radars, air-defence and reconnaissance sensors used on aircraft, ships and ground-based systems, the core of the business.

Optronics16.9%

Electro-optical sighting, targeting and vision systems mounted on land vehicles such as the Leopard 2 and Puma platforms.

Vantagem competitiva

Custos de mudança · Estreita

Once HENSOLDT's radar or optronics are integrated into a platform like the Eurofighter or Leopard 2, replacing them mid-program means requalifying a new supplier through years of defense procurement and security clearance processes, which governments rarely choose to do. The trade-off is that this advantage is tied to a small number of large programs, so losing or not winning the next generation of one of them matters a great deal.

O que impulsiona a procura

Moderadamente cíclico

Orders follow government defense budgets and multi-year procurement decisions rather than the broader economy, and the company itself credits Germany's elevated defense spending as the main driver of its record 2025 order intake. That makes demand more a function of political and budgetary decisions — which can also reverse or delay — than of a classic economic cycle.

Principais riscos

  • Dependence on German defense spending — The company attributes its record 2025 order intake mainly to elevated German federal procurement, so a change in Germany's defense budget priorities would directly affect future orders.
  • Concentration in a few large programs — Order intake growth is driven by specific platforms such as the Eurofighter, Leopard 2 and P-8 Poseidon; a shift in any partner nation's procurement plans away from these platforms would reduce expected orders.
  • Export licensing dependency — International sales require export licenses from German and European authorities, whose approval decisions can delay or block contracts that are otherwise ready to proceed.

Concentração de clientes

HENSOLDT does not disclose an exact percentage, but its own 2025 results credit Germany as the key driver of order intake momentum, indicating heavy reliance on a single national defense customer.

Os argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that a record order backlog built on elevated German and European defense spending gives HENSOLDT years of visible future revenue, and that its equipment being designed into flagship platforms like the Eurofighter and Leopard 2 makes it difficult for those programs to switch suppliers.

Os argumentos contra

Sellers fear that growth leans heavily on the German government's current appetite for defense spending, which is a political decision that can change, that revenue is concentrated in a handful of flagship programs, and that export contracts remain subject to licensing decisions HENSOLDT does not control.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

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Balanço & Liquidez

Receita

$2.68B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Resultado Líquido

$120M

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

$304M

Capital Próprio Total

$889M

Passivo Total

$1.69B

Rácio de Liquidez

1.10

Cobertura de Juros

-

Dívida/EBITDA

4.88

Resultados Por Ação

Receita & Resultado Líquido

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

Decomposição dos Resultados

Demonstração histórica

Margens ao longo do tempo

A dívida ao longo do tempo

Quanto pesa a dívida

Grelha do crescimento

Crescimento — Receitas

Estimativa de Valor Justo

Sobrevalorizada

Valor Justo

$47.60

Preço Atual

$87.08

Margem de Segurança

-82.9%

Intervalo de Valor Justo

$30.94 - $64.26

Métodos de Estimativa

Analyst Target:$92.63
DCF:$24.07
PE-based:$33.55
Graham Growth:$16.93
EPV:$10.90
Consenso dos Analistas:Comprar (12B / 7H / 1S)
Última Surpresa de Resultados:+246.53%

Métricas de Avaliação

Rácio P/E

85.08

ROE

12.9%

Rácio P/B

11.49

P/FCF

33.62

Margem Bruta

21.0%

ROIC

4.3%

Radar de Rentabilidade

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

4.3%

WACC

14.7%

ROIC − WACC

-10.4 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Critérios de Análise Fundamental

Aprovado (10)

  • Price CAGR 35.77%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 11.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 15.3%
  • Analyst Consensus 60% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 35.3%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 6.37

Reprovado (8)

  • ROIC 4.3%
  • Gross Margin 21.0%
  • P/FCF 33.62
  • P/B Ratio 11.49
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 3.6% vs 4.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Indisponível (9)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Preocupações financeiras graves

score
criteria

Qualidade dos Resultados

6.37

Alta qualidade: resultados respaldados por caixa

Diluição de Ações

-

A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista

Governação

Equipa Executiva

NomeCargoIdade
Mr. Oliver DorreCEO & Chairman of Management Board-
Mr. Christian LadurnerCFO & Member of Management Board48
Dr. Lars ImmischExecutive Officer58
Nicolas DeboveChief Operating Officer-
Ms. Inka TewsChief Human Resources Officer, Labour Director & Member of Management Board54
Ms. Veronika EndresHead of Group Reporting & Investor Relations-
Dr. Katja StadelmannGeneral Counsel-
Ms. Simona PatapMarketing Manager-
Mr. Stefan HessHead of Group Sales & Account Management57
Mr. Temur KarbassiounHead of Customer Service-

Risco de Auditoria

5

Risco do Conselho

6

Risco de Remuneração

6

Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas

9

Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar

Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.

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