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Valmet Oyj (VOYJF)

NEUTRAL
IndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachineryFinland

Fundamental

64

Preço

$28.48

Capitalização de Mercado

$5.20B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa

Visão Geral

Valmet designs, builds and services the large industrial machinery that turns wood into pulp and paper and that generates energy from biomass, plus, through a second business line, the flow-control and automation systems that run those plants and others across a wider range of industries. It does not sell a mass-market product: each pulp mill, paper machine or automation system is a large, customised capital project sold to industrial customers, followed by years of spare parts and service work.

Como gera receita

Revenue comes from two different rhythms: large, lumpy capital-project sales — building or upgrading a pulp mill or automation system — and steadier services revenue from maintaining, upgrading and supplying spare parts for equipment already installed at customer sites, some of it decades old. Services carry meaningfully higher margins than new capital projects, so Valmet's profitability depends as much on how well it monetises its existing installed base as on winning new orders.

Receita por segmento

Biomaterial Solutions and Services71.5%

Pulp, paper and energy technology plus the services and spare parts that keep decades-old installed equipment running.

Process Performance Solutions28.5%

Flow-control and automation systems, from single measurements to plant-wide control, sold across a broad range of industries.

Vantagem competitiva

Custos de mudança · Estreita

Once a pulp mill or paper machine is built around Valmet's equipment, replacing it with a competitor's system means re-engineering the plant, so customers tend to buy spare parts and service contracts from Valmet for the equipment's decades-long life. That installed base — with 35-50% market share in some biomaterial process technologies — is the main source of recurring, higher-margin revenue.

O que impulsiona a procura

Cíclico

New capital-project orders rise and fall with how much pulp, paper and energy companies are willing to invest, which tracks commodity prices and the broader economic cycle; customers can and do postpone new projects when conditions are weak. Services revenue is steadier because equipment already installed needs maintenance regardless of the cycle, but it cannot fully offset a slowdown in new orders.

Principais riscos

  • Cyclicality of capital spending — Customers in pulp, paper and energy can defer large new-equipment orders when commodity prices or the economy weaken, directly hitting the project side of the business.
  • Currency and commodity cost exposure — Valmet hedges some of its exposure to currencies and metal costs like nickel and steel scrap, but unhedged swings can still affect project economics and margins.
  • Project execution risk — As a global group delivering large, customised capital projects, Valmet is exposed to execution risks on individual contracts that can affect profitability regardless of overall demand.

Os argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that Valmet's large, decades-lived installed base locks in recurring, higher-margin services revenue that cushions the cyclicality of new capital orders, and that a leading market position in biomaterial process technologies gives it pricing power competitors with a smaller installed base cannot easily match.

Os argumentos contra

Sellers worry that the capital-project side of the business remains exposed to pulp, paper and energy investment cycles that can turn quickly, that a strategic review of splitting the company into two suggests management itself sees limited synergy between its two segments, and that project execution risk can erode margins on any single large contract.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balanço & Liquidez

Receita

$5.31B

Últimos 12 meses até o último trimestre divulgado — estimativa a partir de métricas por ação

Resultado Líquido

$297M

Últimos 12 meses até o último trimestre divulgado — estimativa a partir de métricas por ação

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

$280M

Capital Próprio Total

$2.49B

Passivo Total

$1.58B

Rácio de Liquidez

1.14

Cobertura de Juros

-

Dívida/EBITDA

2.34

Resultados Por Ação

Receita & Resultado Líquido

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

Decomposição dos Resultados

Demonstração histórica

Margens ao longo do tempo

A dívida ao longo do tempo

Quanto pesa a dívida

Grelha do crescimento

Crescimento — Receitas

Estimativa de Valor Justo

Sobrevalorizada

Valor Justo

$22.49

Preço Atual

$28.48

Margem de Segurança

-26.6%

Intervalo de Valor Justo

$15.39 - $29.59

Métodos de Estimativa

Analyst Target:$31.02
DCF:$26.92
PE-based:$16.13
Graham Growth:$12.19
EPV:$25.12
Consenso dos Analistas:Comprar (12B / 4H / 1S)
Última Surpresa de Resultados:-14.18%

Métricas de Avaliação

Rácio P/E

17.53

ROE

12.3%

Rácio P/B

2.09

P/FCF

18.61

Margem Bruta

27.2%

ROIC

10.2%

Radar de Rentabilidade

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

10.2%

WACC

6.2%

ROIC − WACC

+4.0 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Critérios de Análise Fundamental

Aprovado (14)

  • Price CAGR 6.62%
  • ROIC 10.1%
  • P/FCF 18.61
  • P/B Ratio 2.09
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 8.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 12.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 71% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.37
  • Net Margin Trend 5.4% vs 5.2%

Reprovado (6)

  • Gross Margin 27.2%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -25.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Indisponível (7)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Preocupações financeiras graves

score
criteria

Qualidade dos Resultados

1.37

Alta qualidade: resultados respaldados por caixa

Diluição de Ações

-

A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista

Governação

Equipa Executiva

NomeCargoIdade
Mr. Thomas Hinnerskov M.Sc.CEO & President54
Ms. Katri HokkanenChief Financial Officer44
Mr. Pekka RouhiainenVice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Rasmus OksalaExecutive VP of Legal And General Counsel & Secretary to the Board55
Ms. Anu Pires M.Sc.Executive VP of People, Communications & Culture55
Mr. Aki Petri NiemiExecutive VP of Global Supply56
Mr. Celso Luiz TaclaExecutive VP of Latin America61
Mr. Xiangdong Zhu B.Sc. (Eng.), MBAExecutive VP of China Chair58
Mr. Sami Riekkola M.Sc.Executive VP of Pulp, Energy & Circularity51
Mr. Simo Saaskilahti M.Sc.Executive VP of Flow Control54

Risco de Auditoria

3

Risco do Conselho

2

Risco de Remuneração

3

Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas

4

Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar

Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.

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