Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)
NEUTRALファンダメンタル
77
株価
$250.41
時価総額
$53.72B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Autodesk makes the design software that architects, engineers, construction firms, manufacturers and media studios use to draw, model and simulate what they are going to build, before building it. It does not build anything itself: it sells the tools. Its programs — AutoCAD chief among them — have become the format many industries save their work in, so switching to a rival tool means also converting decades of existing drawings and retraining staff who have used the same commands for years.
収益の仕組み
Nearly all revenue comes from subscriptions, billed annually or multi-year, rather than one-off software sales: customers pay to keep using the tools and to keep receiving updates. Autodesk stopped selling permanent licenses years ago, which converted a lumpy sales business into a steadier, recurring one, and gives the company a clear view of renewals ahead. Growth now depends less on winning brand-new customers than on getting existing ones to add users, add products, or move to higher-priced bundles.
セグメント別売上高
Design and project software for buildings and infrastructure, from early architectural sketches through construction management.
The original general-purpose drafting software, still the industry's most common file format across many professions.
3D design, engineering and simulation tools used by manufacturers to design and test physical products before production begins.
3D animation, visual effects and game development tools used by film studios and game developers.
A residual category of smaller products and services that fall outside the four main product families above.
競争優位性（moat）
スイッチングコスト · 狭いDecades of drawings, standards and trained staff are built around Autodesk's file formats and interfaces, so a firm that switches software must also convert its archive and retrain its people — a real cost that keeps most customers renewing. That lock-in is weaker than it looks: cheaper or open-source design tools, and competitors like Bentley Systems and Trimble in construction, are chipping away at specific niches.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性Demand tracks construction and manufacturing investment: when building activity or factory capital spending slows, fewer new subscriptions are sold and renewals get renegotiated at lower seat counts. The subscription model smooths the swings compared to the license sales Autodesk used to run, but it does not remove them, since a customer under pressure can still cut how many seats it pays for.
主なリスク
- Piracy and unauthorized use — In markets with weak enforcement, unlicensed copies of Autodesk's software remain in wide use, competing directly against paid subscriptions the company cannot fully police.
- Dependence on construction and manufacturing spending — A large share of customers are construction and manufacturing firms whose own spending on new projects and equipment rises and falls with the economic cycle, pulling new subscriptions and renewals with it.
- Competition from lower-cost and open tools — Free or lower-priced design software, and increasingly capable open-source alternatives, give price-sensitive customers — especially smaller firms — a reason to look away from Autodesk's subscription pricing.
- Execution risk in changing sales and pricing models — Autodesk has been changing how it packages, prices and transacts its subscriptions; a change handled poorly can disrupt renewals or push customers toward competitors mid-transition.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Autodesk's file formats and workflows are so embedded in architecture, construction and manufacturing that renewal rates stay high almost regardless of the economic cycle, and that new AI and cloud-based tools give it room to raise prices further.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that construction and manufacturing spending is genuinely cyclical, that free or lower-cost design tools are chipping away at price-sensitive segments, and that a business built on subscription price increases has less room to keep raising prices than it has used in recent years.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
Bentley's MicroStation and OpenRoads compete head-on with AutoCAD and Civil 3D for the infrastructure engineers who design roads, bridges and utility networks.
Trimble's Tekla structural modelling and its civil and construction field software chase the same contractors and structural engineers as Autodesk's AEC portfolio.
PTC's Creo and cloud-native Onshape compete for the same product-design and CAD subscription budgets that Autodesk pursues with Fusion and Inventor.
Named by Autodesk in its own 10-K, Dassault sells SOLIDWORKS and CATIA to the same mechanical designers and manufacturers that Autodesk targets with Inventor and Fusion.
Through Graphisoft Archicad, Allplan and Vectorworks, Nemetschek sells BIM design software to the same architects and building engineers Autodesk serves with Revit.
Procore's construction management platform competes directly with Autodesk Construction Cloud for the general contractors and owners who run projects in the field.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$7.51B
直近12か月（2026/4/30まで）
純利益
$1.46B
直近12か月（2026/4/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$2.41B
自己資本合計
$3.04B
負債合計
$9.42B
流動比率
0.83
利払い倍率
22.72
負債/EBITDA
1.55
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$175.24
現在株価
$250.41
安全マージン
-42.9%
適正価値レンジ
$113.91 - $236.58
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
37.14
ROE
36.9%
P/B レシオ
16.83
P/FCF
19.67
粗利益率
91.1%
ROIC
22.3%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
22.3%
WACC
11.2%
ROIC − WACC
+11.1 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（22）
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 7.31%
- Price CAGR 13.12%
- ROIC 22.3%
- Gross Margin 91.1%
- P/FCF 19.67
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 25.1%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 49.4%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 13.7%
- Analyst Consensus 88% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 4.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.90
- Share Dilution -1.0%
- Net Margin Trend 19.5% vs 15.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9
不合格（4）
- P/B Ratio 16.83
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
データなし（2）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-スコア
財務健全性が高い
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Dr. Andrew Anagnost Ph.D. | President, CEO & Director | 60 |
| Mr. Janesh Moorjani | Executive VP & CFO | 52 |
| Mr. Steven M. Blum | Executive VP & COO | 59 |
| Ms. Ruth Ann Keene J.D. | Executive VP, Corporate Affairs, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 56 |
| Ms. Rebecca Pearce | Executive VP & Chief People Officer | 47 |
| Dan Drake | Founder | - |
| Greg Lutz | Founder | - |
| Ms. Kristine B. Diamond | SVP & Chief Accounting Officer | 57 |
| Ms. Venmal Arasu | Executive VP & CTO | 55 |
| Mr. Mike A. Kelly | Chief Information Officer | - |
監査リスク
1
取締役会リスク
2
報酬リスク
7
株主権利リスク
2
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for ADSK, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 6/12/2026POSITIVEWhat's Going On With Autodesk Stock Friday?
Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) stock is showing signs of a premarket uptick, recovering from a significant 7% decline. The software company's shares are currently trading near their 52-week lows, prompting speculation about a potential technical rebound. This movement suggests that some investors may be viewing the recent sharp sell-off as an overreaction, potentially creating a buying opportunity for those anticipating a recovery in the stock price. Traders will be closely monitoring the trading session for confirmation of this rebound.
- 5/28/2026NEUTRALFull Transcript: Autodesk Q1 2027 Earnings Call
Autodesk Inc. released its Q1 2027 earnings call transcript on May 28, 2026. While the transcript provides detailed insights into the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook, it does not contain specific earnings figures, forward-looking guidance, or significant market-moving announcements that would allow for a definitive positive or negative signal. Investors should review the full transcript for a comprehensive understanding of the company's operational status and management's commentary.
- 5/28/2026NEGATIVEAutodesk Stock Sinks Despite Q1 Earnings Beat
Autodesk reported Q1 earnings per share of $1.89, surpassing the $1.79 consensus estimate by 6.1%. However, the stock price declined significantly following the release. This divergence suggests that despite beating short-term earnings expectations, investors are concerned about the company's forward guidance or underlying business trends. Investors should monitor future guidance and any commentary regarding customer demand or competitive pressures that may be impacting the stock's valuation.
- 5/28/2026NEUTRALTop Wall Street Forecasters Revamp Autodesk Expectations Ahead Of Q1 Earnings
Autodesk, Inc. is set to report its first-quarter earnings on May 28th, with analysts forecasting earnings per share of $2.84 and revenue of $1.89 billion. The stock closed at $237.00 on Wednesday. While recent analyst ratings from February 2022 show a mix of 'Buy' and 'Equal-Weight' stances from firms like Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Rosenblatt, the upcoming earnings report will be crucial for determining the stock's immediate trajectory. Investors will be closely watching for any deviations from the expected figures and management's forward guidance.
- 2/27/2026NEUTRALAutodesk (ADSK) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
The market is currently awaiting the detailed transcript of Autodesk's (ADSK) Q4 2026 earnings call. While the date of the announcement has passed, the specific content of the discussion with analysts and investors is not yet available for in-depth analysis. Financial operators closely monitor these events to glean insights into the company's financial performance, future outlook, growth strategies, and any updates on products or competitive positioning. The current lack of concrete data maintains a cautious sentiment, with investors holding off for key information that could influence the stock's sentiment and valuation in the short to medium term. The release of these details will be crucial in determining the stock's next direction.
- 2/25/2026NEUTRALA Preview Of Autodesk's Earnings
Autodesk, the 3D design software giant, is preparing to release its upcoming quarterly earnings. Investors are keenly awaiting this publication to analyze the company's financial performance and gain insights into future prospects. Focus will be on revenue, earnings per share, and management's guidance, all crucial elements for assessing operational health and potential growth trajectories in an evolving market. The lack of pre-announcement details keeps the stock in a holding pattern, with investment decisions heavily reliant on the data to be presented.
via Markets Gazette