AppFolio, Inc. (APPF)
NEUTRALファンダメンタル
71
株価
$222.87
時価総額
$8.06B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
AppFolio, founded in 2006 and based in Santa Barbara, California, sells a cloud-based software platform that property management companies use to run their businesses. Its customers manage single-family, multifamily, affordable, student and commercial properties as well as community associations, and the platform acts as their accounting system of record while also handling marketing and leasing, maintenance and resident communication. On top of that software AppFolio sells transaction services used across the rental lifecycle: collecting and sending payments electronically, screening prospective tenants, and insurance-related risk mitigation. At the end of 2025 the company served 22,096 property management customers covering 9.4 million units under management, up 8% year over year, and revenue is generated primarily from United States customers.
収益の仕組み
Two very different engines. Subscription Services are sold on three plans — Core, Plus and Max — priced by property type and scaling with the size of the customer's portfolio; the fee is invoiced monthly or annually in advance and recognised straight-line over the contract. Value Added Services are mostly billed per use, either as a percentage of the transaction amount (electronic payments) or as a flat fee per transaction with no minimum commitment (tenant screening, risk mitigation), and are recognised when the service is rendered; payment fees are booked gross of interchange and processing costs, which is why cost of revenue is large. Some of these services are paid not by the property manager but by residents and other stakeholders. A small Other line covers onboarding and implementation fees plus legacy customers of acquired businesses who have not migrated to the platform. Because the usage-based part dominates, revenue grows more with rental activity and adoption per unit than with the customer count.
セグメント別売上高
Transaction services layered on the platform: electronic payment services for rent, deposits, owner contributions and vendor payouts; FolioScreen tenant screening (credit, criminal, landlord-tenant history, income and identity verification); FolioGuard renters and liability-to-landlord insurance; and resident and maintenance services. Sold to property managers, and in many cases paid by residents, applicants and vendors.
Recurring subscription fees for the AppFolio Platform under the Core, Plus and Max plans, covering accounting and reporting, marketing and leasing, maintenance workflows and resident communication, with AI features branded Realm and third-party integrations through the AppFolio Stack marketplace. Sold to property management companies of every size.
One-time implementation and data migration fees charged when a customer comes on board, plus recurring or one-off fees from legacy customers of acquired businesses who are not using the core Subscription Services.
競争優位性(moat)
スイッチングコスト · 狭いAppFolio is the accounting system of record for its customers: every transaction of a property management business sits in one database, and moving to a competitor means migrating that ledger and retraining staff — the company itself describes dedicated onboarding teams handling customer data migration and charges for it. Adoption of payments and screening deepens the tie, because the workflows of residents and vendors run through the same platform. The advantage is real but not wide: the 10-K states plainly that the market for cloud-based business management solutions has relatively low barriers to entry and is highly competitive, that AppFolio faces both broad vendors and point solutions, and that some competitors have greater name recognition and resources. The company also warns it expects more competition as AI is integrated into its markets.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性The subscription part behaves defensively: property managers need an accounting system whatever the rental market does, and the fee scales with units under management, which grew 8% in 2025. The larger, usage-based part is more exposed. Payment volumes follow rent collection, screening revenue follows tenant applications, and risk mitigation follows move-ins, so revenue tracks leasing activity rather than the number of customers — the company describes a clear seasonal pattern, with higher applications in the second quarter and higher demand for risk mitigation in the third, and a sequential decline in the fourth. Over a full cycle the swing factor is the volume of rental transactions and how much of the platform each unit consumes, not new-building activity. Rentals themselves are relatively resilient, but the filing points to interest rates and rental-market conditions as things that can cut usage, and to customers reducing Value Added Services to defend their own costs.
主なリスク
- All revenue comes from one industry — The company states that all of its revenues are presently generated by sales to customers in the real estate industry and expects that to continue. If the industry declines, customers may not renew or may cut usage of Value Added Services to save money; higher interest rates may make financing harder for customers and increase their cost of capital, hurting demand, raising churn and affecting results. Consolidation, bankruptcies and rental-market conditions among real estate customers are named as further channels of loss.
- Regulatory exposure of the tenant screening business — Screening is governed by complex laws open to varying interpretation, including the Fair Credit Reporting Act and the Fair Housing Act. The FCRA is the subject of multiple class actions and regulatory enforcement, and the FTC and CFPB have said tenant screening is an area of focus. AppFolio discloses that in January 2021 it settled with the FTC over allegations it failed to comply with parts of the FCRA, paying a fine and accepting ongoing compliance and reporting obligations; failing those obligations could bring material additional penalties or even an order barring it from providing screening services.
- Dependence on third parties in payments — Payments are settled through a sponsoring clearing bank, licensed money transmitters and card processors. AppFolio has far less control over those systems than over its own, some functions run on proprietary third-party software it cannot access, it generally has no long-term contracts with these providers, and it relies on a limited number of them, in some cases with no backup in place. It is also exposed to settlement risk from prefunding, chargebacks and processing errors.
- Interchange fees and card network rules — AppFolio does not access the card networks directly and must pay fees to banks and processors. Networks have raised interchange fees and assessments in the past and may do so again, and processors can pass those increases on. Any material change in credit or debit card interchange rates, including regulatory caps, could significantly reduce Value Added Services revenue and hurt operating income.
- Renewals and expansion of Value Added Services — The business depends substantially on existing customers renewing subscriptions and expanding their use of Value Added Services. Customers may stop for reasons including macroeconomic pressure on the real estate market, competitive displacement, dissatisfaction with service, or reputational harm. If they do not expand adoption, revenue may grow more slowly than expected or decline, and a fall in the existing customer base can cut revenue and operating margins even when new customers are added.
- Growth rate expected to decline — The company tells investors not to rely on prior revenue growth as an indication of future growth: it expects its revenue growth rate to decline over the long term because of increasing competition, a slowing growth rate of its overall market and the maturation of the business. It also expects to keep making substantial investments across the organisation, which may impact profitability, and warns that quarterly results may fluctuate significantly — Value Added Services revenue is seasonal, rising through the first three quarters and declining sequentially in the fourth.
- Artificial intelligence, in the product and against it — AppFolio embeds machine learning and generative and agentic AI in its offerings and expects new AI laws and regulations, greater regulatory oversight, more litigation risk and heavier confidentiality and privacy obligations. It also flags heightened cybersecurity risk, noting that threat actors increasingly use AI for sophisticated attacks including deepfakes, and warns that competitors may incorporate AI more successfully and win faster adoption.
- Insurance requirements set by customers — Part of the risk mitigation revenue exists only because some property managers require their renters to carry insurance. If customers stop imposing that requirement because of regulatory or competitive pressure, demand for the insurance-related products could fall and revenue and operating results could be adversely affected. Separately, the company flags antitrust exposure: algorithmic pricing tools in the industry have drawn criminal and civil investigations, enforcement actions and class actions, and AppFolio says it could face similar challenges.
顧客集中度
The filing states that concentrations of credit risk with respect to accounts receivable and revenue are limited due to a large, diverse customer base, and that as of December 31, 2025 no individual customer exceeded 10% of total revenues in any of the periods presented — across 22,096 property management customers. The company does not disclose a top-customer share, so no number can be given. One counterparty concentration is disclosed on the balance sheet rather than in revenue: 22% of the accounts receivable balance was attributable to amounts due from a risk mitigation provider.
強気材料
Buyers argue that AppFolio owns the system of record for a large and still under-digitised industry and monetises it twice: once through subscriptions, then again through payments, screening and insurance layered on the same workflows. They point to 2025 revenue of $950.8 million, up 20% over 2024, with Value Added Services up 19% and Subscription Services up 17%, and to units under management rising 8% to 9.4 million — growth coming both from new customers and from more services sold per existing unit, which needs little incremental cost to deliver. They note the company reported income from operations of $152.9 million in 2025 against $135.6 million in 2024 and just $1.0 million in 2023, taking it from roughly break-even to solidly profitable in two years, and that the platform is now being extended with AI features and the AppFolio Stack marketplace. They also point to a remaining performance obligation balance of $93.9 million that the company says grew significantly during 2025 as it began selling more multi-year contracts, and to a business that generates cash from customers with no long-term debt drawn on its credit facility.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that the growth is bought with volume that AppFolio does not control. About three quarters of revenue is usage-based and depends on rent payments, tenant applications and move-ins in one industry, and the company itself says all its revenue comes from real estate customers and that higher interest rates and a weaker rental market could increase attrition. They point to the payments economics: fees are recorded gross of interchange and processing, cost of revenue was 36.3% of revenue in 2025, up from 35.5% in 2024, and any material change in interchange rates could significantly reduce Value Added Services revenue. They note the regulatory overhang on screening — a 2021 FTC settlement with continuing compliance obligations, the FTC and CFPB naming tenant screening as a focus area, plus disclosed antitrust exposure around algorithmic pricing tools in the industry. They also take the company at its word that the revenue growth rate will decline over the long term as competition increases and the market matures, that substantial investment across the organisation may impact profitability, and that the market for cloud-based business management solutions has relatively low barriers to entry against competitors with greater resources and name recognition. Finally, they observe that 2025 net income of $140.9 million fell from $204.1 million in 2024 even as operating income rose, and that a dual-class structure with anti-takeover provisions limits outside shareholder influence.
Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
Yardi sells the same end-to-end property management and accounting platform to US residential, commercial and community-association managers, with Yardi Breeze aimed squarely at the small and mid-sized portfolios that are AppFolio's core customer base.
RealPage offers a competing suite of leasing, rent-collection, accounting and screening software to US multifamily operators, and its Buildium product goes after the same small-to-mid-sized residential managers AppFolio serves.
Entrata sells a single operating platform for US multifamily owners and operators — marketing, leasing, payments and accounting in one system — competing for the same property management contracts and the same embedded-payment revenue as AppFolio.
MRI provides property management and real estate accounting software across residential, commercial and affordable housing, competing with AppFolio for the larger portfolios that are its main growth target.
Rent Manager is a US property management and accounting system sold to independent residential and mixed-portfolio managers, the same mid-market buyer AppFolio wins or loses on.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$1.04B
直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)
純利益
$158M
直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)
フリーキャッシュフロー
$239M
自己資本合計
$543M
負債合計
$146M
流動比率
3.83
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
0.20
一株当たり利益(EPS)
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$173.42
現在株価
$222.87
安全マージン
-28.5%
適正価値レンジ
$112.72 - $234.12
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
51.39
ROE
26.0%
P/B レシオ
10.31
P/FCF
20.08
粗利益率
-
ROIC
25.6%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
25.6%
WACC
9.2%
ROIC − WACC
+16.3 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格(17)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 25.13%
- ROIC 25.6%
- P/FCF 20.08
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 17.5%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 30.9%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 25.1%
- Analyst Consensus 94% Buy
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.73
- Share Dilution -1.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
不合格(6)
- P/B Ratio 10.31
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- Earnings Surprise avg 0.9%
- Net Margin Trend 15.1% vs 23.5%
データなし(4)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Shane Trigg | President, CEO & Chairman | 49 |
| Mr. Timothy Mathias Eaton | CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer | 36 |
| Mr. Evan Pickering | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 44 |
| Ms. Elizabeth Barat | Chief People Officer | 49 |
| Mr. Matthew Baird | Chief Technology Officer | - |
| Ms. Lisa Horner | Chief Marketing Officer | - |
| Ms. Maryclaire Campbell | Chief Revenue Officer | 66 |
| Mr. Kyle Triplett | Chief Product Officer | - |
| Mr. Steven Biringer | Senior Vice President of Growth Strategy & Development | - |
| Bill Schroeder | Vice President of Finance | - |
監査リスク
1
取締役会リスク
8
報酬リスク
8
株主権利リスク
10
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for APPF, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 3/6/2026NEGATIVEBrown Capital Dumps 190,000 AppFolio Shares Worth $45.1 Million
Brown Capital Management has divested 190,000 shares of AppFolio Inc., a move valued at approximately $45.1 million. AppFolio, known for its cloud software and integrated services tailored for real estate firms, emphasizes recurring revenue and workflow automation. This significant sell-off by a major holder suggests potential concerns or a strategic shift within Brown Capital, which could signal a lack of confidence in AppFolio's near-term prospects or a portfolio rebalancing. Investors should monitor further developments and analyst sentiment regarding the software company's performance.
- 3/3/2026POSITIVEAppFolio Grew Free Cash Flow 30% in 2025 and Deepened Switching Costs for Customers. Is the Sell-Off Overdone?
Markets Gazette reports that AppFolio Inc. demonstrated robust financial health in 2025, achieving a significant 30% increase in free cash flow. This strong performance, coupled with the company's success in deepening customer switching costs, suggests a powerful competitive moat in the property management software sector. The ability to retain clients effectively, making it costly for them to switch providers, underpins long-term revenue stability and growth potential. Analysts are now questioning whether the recent sell-off in AppFolio's stock has been excessive, given these underlying strengths. Investors should consider these factors as indicators of a potentially undervalued asset with solid fundamentals.
- 3/1/2026NEGATIVEInsight Holdings Trims AppFolio as Property Software Faces a More Selective SaaS Market
Insight Holdings has recently trimmed its stake in AppFolio, a property management software provider, signaling growing market concerns. AppFolio's shares have lagged the broader market over the past year, amidst a slowdown in real estate transaction activity. Investors are reassessing growth models for SaaS companies, evaluating whether growth is primarily tied to units under management or higher-margin services like payments. This move by Insight Holdings suggests a more cautious outlook on the sector and AppFolio's ability to maintain momentum in a more selective market for SaaS valuations.
via Markets Gazette