ASML Holding N.V. (ASMLF)

収益の仕組み

Revenue has two parts: selling new lithography systems, which can cost well over 100 million euros each and roughly 350 million for the newest High-NA EUV machines, and servicing the growing fleet of machines already installed at customer fabs — upgrades, spare parts and maintenance. System sales are lumpy and tied to customers' capital spending plans; the installed-base service business is smaller but grows every year a new machine ships and recurs regardless of whether that customer buys another one soon.

セグメント別売上高

EUV lithography took ASML and its main optics partner over two decades and tens of billions of euros to develop, and no competitor has matched it: Canon and Nikon, the only other lithography makers of scale, have no EUV product. A customer that wants to make the most advanced chips has no alternative supplier to switch to.

Orders track the capital spending cycles of a small number of chipmakers, which expand and pause capacity in step with memory prices and AI-driven demand for logic. A shortage can flip into overcapacity within a couple of years, and system revenue in a given year depends heavily on the timing of a handful of large customer decisions.

主なリスク

• Export controls on China — The Dutch government requires an export license for ASML's most advanced immersion DUV and all EUV systems shipped to China, and has revoked licenses for specific systems already sold; the same license requirement extends to servicing and spare parts for machines already installed there.
• Single-source dependence on Zeiss optics — Carl Zeiss SMT is ASML's sole supplier of the optical columns at the heart of its lithography systems. If Zeiss could not maintain or expand production, ASML would be unable to fulfill orders.
• Revenue concentrated in a handful of customers — The company states that the loss of any significant customer, or a significant reduction in its orders, could have a material adverse effect on results, and that sales are expected to remain concentrated among relatively few customers.

主要顧客が売上高の38%を占める

TSMC alone has accounted for roughly a quarter of net sales, and the top two customers together for about 38%. The company states it expects sales to stay concentrated among a small number of customers, so the loss of one order cycle from any of them moves results materially.