Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
NEUTRALファンダメンタル
63
株価
$279.62
時価総額
$96.88B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Constellation Energy owns and operates the largest fleet of nuclear power plants in the United States, about 22 gigawatts, alongside wind, solar and hydroelectric generation. It sells the electricity it produces into wholesale power markets such as PJM and ERCOT, and supplies retail power and gas to roughly 2.5 million residential, commercial and industrial customer accounts, including data centres. In January 2026 it closed the acquisition of Calpine, adding about 23 gigawatts of natural gas and geothermal generation to the fleet.
収益の仕組み
Revenue comes from selling the electricity the fleet generates: through long-term supply contracts with large customers such as Microsoft, Meta and CyrusOne, through wholesale spot and bilateral market sales, and through regulated retail supply to households and businesses. Because nuclear plants have very high fixed costs but very low costs per extra unit generated once running, profitability depends heavily on the prices locked into those contracts rather than on daily swings in the power market, and swings in wholesale prices still flow through the unregulated part of the business.
競争優位性（moat）
規模の経済 · 狭いBuilding a new nuclear plant in the US takes over a decade and tens of billions of dollars, so Constellation's existing licensed fleet is effectively irreplaceable for the foreseeable future. That scale advantage lets it sign large, multi-decade supply contracts that few competitors could match. It is not a wide moat, though: the company still sells much of its output into competitive wholesale power markets.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性Electricity demand is traditionally a stable, defensive driver, but Constellation's growth increasingly comes from a specific and newer source: power-hungry AI data centres signing long-term supply deals. That is a tailwind while it lasts, but it concentrates future growth in the spending plans of a handful of technology companies rather than in broad, diversified electricity consumption across the economy.
主なリスク
- Nuclear operating and regulatory risk — Nuclear plants operate under continuous oversight by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission; a safety incident, an unplanned outage, or a stricter licensing requirement at any single plant can be costly and hard to predict.
- Wholesale power price volatility — A meaningful part of output is still sold at market prices rather than under fixed contracts, so swings in natural gas prices, weather and power demand directly move Constellation's unregulated earnings.
- Concentration in large data-centre contracts — Much of the company's growth narrative now rests on long-term deals with a small number of large technology companies; a change in any one of their AI infrastructure plans could alter demand assumptions.
- Integration risk from the Calpine acquisition — The January 2026 purchase of Calpine roughly doubled the company's generating capacity; combining two large power fleets and workforces carries execution risk that a smaller deal would not.
- Energy policy and regulatory change — State and federal rules on emissions, nuclear subsidies and market design can change with little notice, and Constellation's returns depend on policy remaining favourable to the assets it already owns.
顧客集中度
Constellation serves about 2.5 million customer accounts, including roughly four in five Fortune 100 companies, so its retail base is broad. It does not disclose what share of revenue comes from its largest data-centre supply contracts.
強気材料
Buyers argue that nuclear power is the only source of large-scale, always-on, carbon-free electricity available today, and that long-term supply deals with AI data-centre operators lock in years of high-value demand for a fleet that cannot realistically be replicated by competitors.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that growth is increasingly concentrated in a handful of technology customers' AI spending plans, that a large share of output still trades at volatile wholesale prices, and that digesting the Calpine acquisition adds execution risk on top of both.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$24.78B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$3.46B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$1.29B
自己資本合計
$14.52B
負債合計
$42.40B
流動比率
1.46
利払い倍率
5.87
負債/EBITDA
4.34
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$258.12
現在株価
$279.62
安全マージン
-8.3%
適正価値レンジ
$167.78 - $348.46
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
26.65
ROE
16.0%
P/B レシオ
3.03
P/FCF
313.52
粗利益率
-
ROIC
4.3%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
4.3%
WACC
8.9%
ROIC − WACC
-4.6 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（17）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 33.38%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 18.5%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 14.7%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 7.7%
- Analyst Consensus 83% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 3.8%
- PEG Ratio 0.88
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.21
- Share Dilution -0.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
不合格（8）
- ROIC 4.3%
- P/FCF 313.52
- P/B Ratio 3.03
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Net Margin Trend 14.0% vs 14.6%
データなし（2）
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル：一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Joseph Dominguez | President, CEO & Chairman | 61 |
| Mr. Bryan Craig Hanson | Senior Executive VP & Chief Generation Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Daniel L. Eggers C.F.A. | Senior Executive Vice President of Finance & Data Economy | 49 |
| Mr. James McHugh | Senior Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Shane P. Smith | Executive VP & CFO | 45 |
| Mr. Michael R. Koehler | Executive VP & Chief Administration Officer | 58 |
| Tim Flottemesch | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Matthew Price | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & General Counsel | - |
| Ms. Susie Kutansky | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | - |
| Mr. Christopher H. Mudrick | Chief Nuclear Officer | - |
監査リスク
4
取締役会リスク
5
報酬リスク
3
株主権利リスク
8
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for CEG, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 7/6/2026POSITIVEConstellation Energy: a smart play on the AI energy race
Constellation Energy Corporation is positioned as a strategic investment for portfolios seeking exposure to the burgeoning AI sector's energy demands. The company's role in providing reliable and potentially carbon-free energy solutions makes it a key player in powering the significant energy consumption of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Investors are advised to consider CEG for its potential to benefit from the increasing demand for electricity driven by AI advancements, offering a unique blend of energy provision and technological growth.
- 3/23/2026NEUTRALConstellation CEO on Gas, Power Prices and Data Center Demand at CERAWeek
Constellation Energy CEO Joseph Dominguez participated in discussions at CERAWeek, addressing key market dynamics including energy prices, natural gas trends, and the burgeoning demand from data centers. While specific financial figures or forward-looking statements were not detailed in this brief, the CEO's presence at a major energy conference highlights the company's active engagement in shaping and responding to industry developments. Investors will monitor future communications for concrete strategies and financial impacts stemming from these discussed trends.
- 3/19/2026POSITIVEConstellation Energy To Sell PJM Portfolio Of Generation Assets In $5 Billion Deal
Constellation Energy has announced a strategic divestiture of its PJM portfolio of generation assets for an estimated $5 billion. This sale is a key step in fulfilling regulatory commitments, allowing the company to streamline its operations and focus on its core energy generation and retail supply businesses. The transaction is expected to strengthen Constellation's balance sheet and enhance its financial flexibility. Investors may view this as a positive move, indicating disciplined capital allocation and a commitment to strategic growth within its primary markets.
- 3/16/2026POSITIVEBetter Utility Stock: Constellation Energy vs. NextEra Energy
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is emerging as a strong contender in the utility sector, driven by surging electricity demand from the burgeoning data center industry. This trend is placing utility stocks, particularly those with significant clean energy generation capacity like Constellation, in a favorable light. The company's strategic position to capitalize on this demand surge suggests potential for revenue growth and increased market valuation. Investors are advised to monitor CEG's capacity expansion and its ability to secure long-term power purchase agreements to meet this escalating need.
- 3/15/2026POSITIVE2 Monster Energy Stocks to Hold for the Next 10 Years
Constellation Energy Corporation, alongside Vistra, is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for green power, essential for hyperscale data center expansion. This strategic alignment with a high-growth sector suggests a strong future outlook. The company's role in providing sustainable energy solutions to major tech players indicates robust revenue potential and market leadership. Investors looking for long-term growth should consider Constellation Energy's critical infrastructure role in the digital economy's expansion.
- 3/11/2026NEGATIVEWhy Constellation Energy Plunged Today
Constellation Energy Corporation experienced a significant decline today, directly linked to the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The report indicated a sharp monthly decrease in electricity prices, a key component of energy costs. This unexpected drop in electricity prices suggests a potential shift in market dynamics or a temporary deflationary pressure within the energy sector. For investors in Constellation Energy, this news raises concerns about future revenue streams and profitability, especially if this trend of declining electricity prices persists or accelerates.
- 3/5/2026POSITIVEWhy Constellation Energy Stock Surged 17.5% in February
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) experienced an impressive 17.5% surge in February, capitalizing on surging power demand. This significant rise underscores the company's strategic position within the energy sector, particularly in meeting the needs of an expanding market. For investors, CEG's performance highlights its ability to leverage market trends, suggesting potential for continued growth and robust operational management in a sector vital to the global economy.
- 2/24/2026POSITIVEWhy Constellation Energy Stock Is Climbing Higher Today
Constellation Energy (CEG) is experiencing a significant uplift in its stock price today, following the announcement of a robust performance at the close of 2025. The nuclear energy giant's strong financial results have clearly resonated positively with investors, signaling confidence in its operational efficiency and future growth prospects within the critical energy sector. This positive momentum suggests that the company's strategic initiatives and market positioning are yielding tangible benefits, potentially setting a bullish tone for its shares in the near term. Analysts will be closely watching if this strong finish translates into sustained upward trajectory.
via Markets Gazette