CME Group Inc. (CME)
POSITIVEファンダメンタル
74
株価
$278.01
時価総額
$100.38B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
CME Group runs the exchanges where traders buy and sell standardized futures and options contracts on interest rates, stock indexes, currencies, energy, agricultural commodities and metals — agreements to buy or sell something at a set price on a future date. It does not take positions itself: it provides the marketplace, matches buyers with sellers, and, through its clearing house, guarantees that both sides of every trade get paid even if one of them defaults.
収益の仕組み
Most revenue comes from a small fee charged on every contract traded and cleared, so revenue rises with trading volume rather than with the direction prices move — a volatile market that makes people trade more is good for CME even if prices are falling. A second stream comes from selling the market data CME's exchanges generate to traders, banks and data vendors, plus investment income earned on the cash collateral customers post to guarantee their trades.
競争優位性（moat）
ネットワーク効果 · 広いA futures contract is only useful if enough other traders use the identical contract, because that shared pool of buyers and sellers lets anyone enter or exit a position quickly at a fair price. Once a contract accumulates that liquidity at CME, a rival exchange offering the same contract cannot easily attract traders away — a network effect that has kept CME's benchmark contracts dominant for decades.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性Trading volume, and so revenue, rises when markets are volatile and traders need to hedge or speculate on fast-moving prices, and can soften in calm, low-volatility periods regardless of the broader economic cycle. Interest rate policy is a particularly large swing factor, since CME's interest rate contracts are its single biggest product line and trading in them picks up whenever rate expectations are in flux.
主なリスク
- Dependence on trading volume and volatility — Revenue depends on how much trading happens on CME's exchanges; a sustained period of low volatility or reduced trading activity directly reduces transaction fee revenue, the largest part of the business.
- Competition from other exchanges and clearing venues — Rival exchanges, and the possibility of a competing venue attracting enough liquidity in one of CME's core contracts, could draw trading volume away from CME's markets over time.
- Regulatory risk — CME's exchanges and clearing house operate under close regulatory oversight in the US and abroad; a change in rules on trading, clearing or capital requirements could raise costs or restrict how the business operates.
- Concentration in interest rate products — A large share of CME's revenue comes from interest rate futures and options; a structural shift in these products, or in how rate risk is hedged, would affect results more than the diversification across asset classes might suggest.
強気材料
Buyers argue that the liquidity concentrated in CME's benchmark futures contracts is nearly impossible for a new exchange to replicate, that rising market volatility from any source tends to increase trading volume and revenue, and that a fee-per-contract model scales with almost no added cost as volume grows.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that a sustained calm market reduces the trading volume CME's revenue depends on, that regulators could reshape how derivatives trading and clearing work in ways CME cannot control, and that a large share of results still rests on interest rate products whose trading patterns could shift structurally.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
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貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$6.77B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$4.29B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$4.19B
自己資本合計
$28.73B
負債合計
$169.70B
流動比率
1.02
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
0.89
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$777.19
現在株価
$278.01
安全マージン
+64.2%
適正価値レンジ
$505.18 - $1049.21
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
23.68
ROE
14.2%
P/B レシオ
0.70
P/FCF
4.42
粗利益率
-
ROIC
9.7%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
9.7%
WACC
7.7%
ROIC − WACC
+2.0 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（20）
- Price CAGR 9.08%
- ROIC 9.7%
- P/FCF 4.42
- P/B Ratio 0.70
- Operating Margin 65.1%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 15.6%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 18.7%
- Analyst Consensus 57% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.58
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.01
- Share Dilution 0.1%
- Net Margin Trend 63.3% vs 58.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
不合格（5）
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -1.60%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Earnings Surprise avg 0.3%
データなし（3）
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル：一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式数は安定している
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Terrence A. Duffy | Chairman & CEO | 67 |
| Ms. Lynne C. Fitzpatrick | Senior MD, President & CFO | 47 |
| Mr. Sunil Cutinho | Chief Information Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Derek L. Sammann | Senior MD & Global Head of Commodities Markets | 57 |
| Ms. Julie M. Winkler | Senior MD & Chief Commercial Officer | 50 |
| Ms. Suzanne Sprague | Senior MD, Group COO & Global Head of Clearing | - |
| Mr. Jack Tobin | MD & Chief Accounting Officer | 61 |
| Adam Minick | Investor Contact | - |
| Mr. Jonathan L. Marcus J.D. | Senior MD & General Counsel | - |
| Ms. Anita Liskey | Senior Managing Director of Corporate Marketing & Communications | 60 |
監査リスク
1
取締役会リスク
9
報酬リスク
8
株主権利リスク
10
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for CME, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 5d agoNEUTRALCME CEO Spars With CFTC Chair About Prediction Market Oversight
CME Group CEO has urged the CFTC to enhance oversight of prediction markets, citing concerns about potential manipulation as these platforms rapidly expand. The call highlights a growing tension between financial regulators and innovative trading venues. While the CME, a major derivatives marketplace, benefits from robust regulatory frameworks, the rapid ascent of prediction markets presents new challenges for market integrity. Investors in CME should monitor regulatory developments closely, as increased oversight could impact the competitive landscape for derivatives and alternative trading platforms.
- 20d agoNEGATIVECME, FanDuel Venture Falters As Prediction Startups Race Ahead
CME Group Inc. and FanDuel are reportedly scaling back their joint venture focused on prediction markets. The initiative, aimed at competing with burgeoning prediction startups, has failed to gain significant traction. This lack of progress in a rapidly growing sector, which poses a challenge to traditional financial exchanges and sports betting operators, suggests a missed opportunity for CME. Investors may view this as a setback in their diversification efforts into alternative betting and financial products.
- 28d agoNEUTRALFIA CEO on Prediction Market 'Disruption,' Regulation
CME Group is set to launch single-stock futures, enabling investors to hedge or speculate on over 50 major US companies. These cash-settled contracts will offer leverage without the complexities of options, tied to the closing prices of the underlying stocks. FIA CEO Walt Lukken views the expansion of prediction markets and new products like these as beneficial for developing robust regulatory frameworks within the financial industry. The move signals an evolving landscape for derivatives and speculative trading, potentially increasing market activity and investor participation in new asset classes.
- 7/26/2026NEUTRALTraders are getting a new tool to wager on the biggest U.S. stocks
CME Group Inc. is launching single-stock futures on Monday, offering traders a new avenue to hedge or speculate on over 50 of the largest U.S. companies. This product expansion provides increased flexibility for investors seeking to manage risk or express views on individual large-cap stocks. While potentially increasing trading volume and revenue for CME, the direct impact on the underlying stocks is neutral as it provides a new derivative instrument rather than affecting the companies' fundamentals.
- 6/25/2026POSITIVECME Plans Wind Derivatives Launch for US, Europe, Australia
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is reportedly planning to launch wind derivatives contracts spanning the US, Europe, and Australia. This strategic move anticipates the increasing significance of renewable energy sources in global power generation. The introduction of these derivatives could provide crucial hedging tools for the burgeoning wind energy sector, potentially attracting more investment and stabilizing prices. For investors, this signals CME's proactive engagement with the growing green energy market, offering new avenues for speculation and risk management within the energy commodity space.
- 6/25/2026NEUTRALCME Plans to Launch Wind Derivatives for US, Europe, Australia
CME Group Inc. is reportedly planning to introduce wind derivatives contracts spanning the US, Europe, and Australia. This strategic move by the exchange operator aligns with the increasing global emphasis on renewable energy sources and their integration into power generation. While the specific details and launch timeline remain undisclosed, the initiative signals CME's proactive approach to capitalize on the growing renewable energy market. Investors will be watching for further announcements regarding contract specifications and potential market impact.
- 6/22/2026NEUTRALCME Direct Trading Platform Is Back Up After Earlier Disruptions
CME Direct, a key trading platform operated by CME Group Inc., has resumed full operations following a brief period of technical disruption on Monday. The platform experienced difficulties that impacted trading activities, according to market participants. The restoration of services is crucial for maintaining market liquidity and confidence. While the disruption was temporary, such incidents can highlight operational risks for exchanges. Investors will monitor CME's communication regarding the cause and preventative measures to ensure future stability.
- 6/22/2026NEGATIVECME Trading Disrupted as Platform Faces ‘Disconnects’
CME Group, the world's largest derivatives exchange operator, experienced significant trading disruptions on Monday due to platform 'disconnects'. The issue, communicated to customers via email, impacted trading operations midday. While the exact duration and full extent of the disruption are yet to be fully detailed, such technical failures can lead to reduced trading volumes, potential financial losses for participants, and damage to the exchange's reputation for reliability. Investors will be monitoring the company's response and any potential impact on its financial results.
- 6/21/2026NEGATIVECME Group Sues CFTC Over Competitor Crypto Perpetual Futures Approval
CME Group has initiated legal action against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in federal court, contesting the regulator's recent approval of competitor-issued cryptocurrency perpetual futures contracts. The core of the lawsuit centers on CME's assertion that the CFTC overstepped its statutory authority in granting this approval. This legal challenge introduces significant uncertainty for the regulated derivatives market, potentially impacting the perceived stability and regulatory clarity of crypto derivatives trading. Investors will monitor the court's decision for its implications on market structure and competition.
via Markets Gazette