Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
NEUTRALファンダメンタル
67
株価
$111.38
時価総額
$434.46B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Cisco builds the networking equipment — routers, switches, wireless gear — that moves data through corporate and telecom networks, and has layered security, collaboration and observability software on top of that base. It sells mostly through a two-tier channel of distributors and resellers rather than directly, and its 2024 acquisition of Splunk turned network and application monitoring into one of its largest growth engines.
収益の仕組み
Roughly three-quarters of revenue still comes from selling physical and virtual equipment outright, but Cisco increasingly bundles that hardware with multi-year software subscriptions for security, observability and collaboration, turning a one-time sale into a renewing stream. The remaining quarter is services — support, maintenance and professional services on the enormous installed base of equipment already deployed, which is far more predictable than new equipment sales.
セグメント別売上高
Routers, switches, wireless and data-centre networking hardware and software — the core business, though it shrank in fiscal 2025.
Support, maintenance and professional services sold on top of Cisco's large installed base of deployed equipment.
Cybersecurity software and appliances, Cisco's fastest-growing category after the Splunk acquisition closed.
Webex video conferencing, calling and contact-centre software for hybrid and remote work.
Splunk's monitoring and analytics tools plus ThousandEyes, the smallest category but growing quickly.
競争優位性（moat）
スイッチングコスト · 狭いRipping out core network infrastructure is disruptive and risky, and a generation of network engineers has been trained and certified specifically on Cisco's systems, which discourages wholesale replacement. The advantage has narrowed over the years, though, as cheaper switching hardware and cloud-native networking approaches have given large customers credible alternatives at the edges of the network.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性Enterprise and telecom capital spending on networking equipment rises and falls with IT budgets and can be deferred when a downturn hits, which is why Cisco's core Networking revenue actually declined in fiscal 2025. The growing subscription and services base cushions that swing, since renewal revenue keeps flowing even when new equipment orders slow.
主なリスク
- Reliance on a two-tier distribution channel — Most Cisco products reach customers through distributors and resellers rather than direct sales, so channel inventory levels and partner incentives can distort visibility into real end demand.
- Need to keep pace with rapid technology shifts — Cloud-native networking, software-defined architectures and AI infrastructure are reshaping how enterprises build networks, and Cisco must keep innovating in these directions or lose ground to faster-moving competitors.
- Cybersecurity exposure — As both a security vendor and a large technology target, a breach of Cisco's own products or systems would damage customer trust in a business built partly on being a trusted security supplier.
- Integrating large acquisitions — The $28 billion Splunk deal is central to Cisco's observability strategy; realising the expected synergies and cross-selling depends on integration executing well, which large acquisitions do not always do.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Splunk has given Cisco a genuine second growth engine in security and observability just as AI data-centre buildouts are reviving networking demand, and that the shift toward subscription revenue makes results more predictable than the old hardware-refresh cycle ever was.
弱気材料
Sellers worry that Cisco's core Networking business, still half of revenue, is losing share to cheaper switching hardware and cloud-native alternatives, and that folding Splunk into a much larger, slower-growing company will dilute the acquisition's promise rather than accelerate it.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$60.75B
直近12か月（2026/4/25まで）
純利益
$11.96B
直近12か月（2026/4/25まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$13.29B
自己資本合計
$46.84B
負債合計
$75.45B
流動比率
0.92
利払い倍率
9.69
負債/EBITDA
1.97
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$85.85
現在株価
$111.38
安全マージン
-29.7%
適正価値レンジ
$55.80 - $115.89
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
36.62
ROE
21.7%
P/B レシオ
8.89
P/FCF
36.86
粗利益率
64.3%
ROIC
13.0%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
13.0%
WACC
9.7%
ROIC − WACC
+3.4 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（18）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 13.90%
- ROIC 13.0%
- Gross Margin 64.3%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 23.4%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 25.1%
- Analyst Consensus 70% Buy
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.09
- Share Dilution -1.7%
- Net Margin Trend 19.7% vs 17.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 9/9
不合格（8）
- EPS CAGR 4.00%
- P/FCF 36.86
- P/B Ratio 8.89
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue Growth 5Y 2.8%
- Earnings Surprise avg 0.6%
データなし（2）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-スコア
財務健全性が高い
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Charles H. Robbins | Chairman & CEO | 59 |
| Mr. Jeetendra I. Patel | President & Chief Product Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Thimaya Subaiya | Executive Vice President of Operations | 46 |
| Ms. Deborah L. Stahlkopf | Executive VP & Chief Legal Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Mark Patterson | Executive VP & CFO | 55 |
| Mr. Nichlas A. Fink | Senior VP, Corporate Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 45 |
| Mr. Andrew Ashton | Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance | - |
| Mr. Ahmed Sami Badri | Head of Investor Relations & Strategic Finance | - |
| Mr. Steve Clayton | Senior VP & Chief Communications Officer | - |
| Mr. Oliver Tuszik | Executive VP of Global Sales & Chief Sales Officer | 56 |
監査リスク
6
取締役会リスク
6
報酬リスク
8
株主権利リスク
1
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for CSCO, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 12d agoNEGATIVECisco’s stock falls on margin concerns. Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying.
Cisco's stock experienced a decline following concerns raised by Wall Street analysts regarding potential pressure on gross margins. The analysts' sentiment stems from the company's potential focus on the artificial-intelligence 'supercycle,' which could necessitate increased investment or shifts in product mix that may impact profitability. This outlook suggests that while AI presents a growth opportunity, it may come at the cost of short-term margin expansion, a key metric for investors assessing operational efficiency and pricing power.
- 13d agoNEUTRALCisco sees record results from an AI ‘supercycle,’ but its stock pulls back
Cisco Systems Inc. reported a record performance, with revenue surging 18% and issuing an optimistic 2027 forecast, signaling strong future growth potential driven by an AI 'supercycle.' Despite these robust results and projections, the company's stock experienced a pullback. This divergence suggests that while the fundamental outlook remains positive, market sentiment or other factors may be influencing short-term price action. Investors will be watching to see if the company can translate its technological advantages and market position into sustained stock appreciation.
- 13d agoNEUTRALCisco Beats Estimates, Cerebras Reports Declines | Closing Bell
Cisco Systems Inc. reported earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, though specific figures were not detailed in this summary. The news also mentioned Cerebras Systems experiencing declines, suggesting a mixed performance across technology sectors. The broader market close coverage indicates a focus on U.S. market dynamics. For investors, the positive outcome for Cisco may offer a degree of confidence, but the contrasting performance of Cerebras highlights sector-specific risks and the need for careful stock selection within the technology landscape.
- 28d agoNEUTRALAs chips sell off, rattled investors should heed this Cisco Systems lesson from the last millennium
Fundstrat's Tom Lee suggests the market may regain stability within days, drawing a parallel to past resilience exemplified by Cisco Systems' performance in the late 1990s. While the current chip sector faces a sell-off, Lee's commentary implies a belief in eventual market recovery. The historical reference to Cisco, a tech giant that navigated significant market volatility, serves as a reminder of the potential for established companies to rebound. Investors are advised to consider this long-term perspective amidst short-term sector-specific downturns.
- 6/3/2026POSITIVEAfter Dell And HPE's AI-Fueled Surge, Is Cisco The Next 1990s Tech Giant To Break Out?
Cisco Systems Inc. is showing signs of a potential breakout, following the significant AI-driven rallies of Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. While Cisco has lagged its peers, eleven Wall Street firms have recently increased their price targets for the stock. This renewed analyst optimism suggests a potential shift in investor sentiment, as the company might be poised to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI infrastructure and networking solutions, similar to the surges seen in other legacy tech giants.
- 5/29/2026POSITIVECisco's Biggest AI Bet Wasn't Made In 2025 — It Was Made In 2016
Cisco's strategic foresight in AI infrastructure is highlighted by CEO Chuck Robbins, who revealed the company's significant AI bet was placed in 2016 with a key silicon acquisition, predating the current AI boom. This long-term vision positions Cisco favorably in the rapidly expanding AI market. Investors may see this as a testament to strong leadership and strategic planning, potentially bolstering confidence in the company's future growth prospects and its ability to capitalize on AI-driven opportunities.
- 5/17/2026NEGATIVECisco Stock Is Up 55% This Year, But Two Key Risks May Trigger Reversal
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) has experienced a significant 55% surge in its stock price year-to-date. However, current market indicators suggest extreme overbought conditions and elevated valuation multiples. These factors combined present a substantial risk of a potential reversal in the stock's trajectory. Investors should be cautious as the current price may not be sustainable, and a correction could be imminent.
- 5/16/2026NEUTRALNebius Group, Cisco Systems, Micron Technology And More: 5 Stocks Investors Couldn't Stop Buzzing About This Week
This week, retail investors on X and Reddit's r/WallStreetBets actively discussed five stocks: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Micron Technology (MU), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Nebius Group (NBIS). The heightened social media buzz indicates significant retail interest and potential trading activity around these specific companies. While the discussions themselves do not provide fundamental analysis, they highlight stocks that are capturing the attention of a large segment of the investing public, often preceding notable price movements.
via Markets Gazette