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Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEGY)

POSITIVE
Communication ServicesTelecom ServicesGermany

ファンダメンタル

75

株価

$29.10

時価総額

$139.48B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Deutsche Telekom owns and operates telecommunications networks — mobile, fixed-line and broadband — in Germany and across Europe, and holds a majority stake in T-Mobile US, the American mobile carrier. Customers pay recurring fees for voice, data and broadband access, plans that typically run for one or two years, and its Systems Solutions unit sells IT and digital services to businesses and public administrations.

収益の仕組み

Most revenue is recurring subscription fees for network access, billed monthly regardless of how much a customer actually uses. Building and upgrading the underlying networks — spectrum, fibre, towers — requires continuous heavy capital spending, so profitability depends on spreading that fixed cost over as many paying subscribers as possible; the U.S. business, T-Mobile, is now the largest single contributor to group revenue.

セグメント別売上高

United States (T-Mobile US)65.6%

The majority-owned American mobile carrier, now the largest single source of group revenue and profit.

Germany21.5%

The domestic mobile, fixed-line and broadband business, including the Deutsche Telekom brand's home market.

Europe10.6%

Mobile and fixed-line operations in other European countries outside Germany.

Systems Solutions3.4%

IT, cloud and digital services sold to business and public-sector customers, separate from the network businesses.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

Owning nationwide spectrum licences and physical network infrastructure is expensive enough to keep out most new entrants, and customers rarely switch carriers over small price differences once installed. But the advantage is not exclusive: a handful of well-capitalized rivals own comparable networks in every market Deutsche Telekom serves, so competition still pressures prices.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

Mobile and broadband access are close to essential services for most households and businesses, so subscriber numbers hold up reasonably well even in a weaker economy. Growth instead comes mainly from price increases, added services and subscriber gains in the U.S. market rather than from the economic cycle.

主なリスク

  • Intense competition in the U.S. market — T-Mobile US operates in a market the company describes as intensively competitive, with potential saturation of wireless customer growth and increasing convergence among mobile, fixed-network and satellite providers.
  • Data privacy and cybersecurity — The company ranks data privacy and security as its highest-significance operational risk, citing GDPR exposure with potential fines of up to 2-4% of total worldwide annual revenue alongside evolving cyber threats.
  • German and European market competition — Intensifying competition and uncertain economic conditions across consumer, business and wholesale segments in Germany have raised this risk from low to medium significance.
  • Procurement and supplier disruption — The company raised this risk from medium to high significance, citing geopolitical disruption, component shortages, supplier concentration and the pass-through cost of U.S. tariffs.

強気材料

Buyers argue that T-Mobile US's continued subscriber and service-revenue growth makes it the group's main value driver, that owning irreplaceable network infrastructure across Germany, Europe and the U.S. gives durable pricing power, and that steady, recurring subscription revenue supports the dividend even through economic downturns.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that group results now depend heavily on a single foreign subsidiary exposed to U.S.-specific competitive and regulatory swings, that intensifying competition in both Germany and the U.S. will keep pressuring prices, and that heavy ongoing network investment leaves less room for error if growth in any one market slows.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

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貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$119.69B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$8.64B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$17.39B

自己資本合計

$59.85B

負債合計

$146.76B

流動比率

1.03

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

3.44

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

割安

適正価値

$60.56

現在株価

$29.10

安全マージン

+51.9%

適正価値レンジ

$39.36 - $81.75

推定方法

Analyst Target:$37.10
DCF:$159.44
PE-based:$20.23
Graham Growth:$68.45
EPV:$49.47
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (22B / 2H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+2.42%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

16.38

ROE

15.1%

P/B レシオ

2.33

P/FCF

8.02

粗利益率

44.9%

ROIC

11.1%

収益性レーダー

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

11.1%

WACC

3.8%

ROIC − WACC

+7.3 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(15)

  • Price CAGR 6.00%
  • ROIC 11.1%
  • Gross Margin 44.9%
  • P/FCF 8.02
  • P/B Ratio 2.33
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 14.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 92% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 8.0%
  • PEG Ratio 0.89
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 4.25

不合格(4)

  • CapEx intensity
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 3.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 8.1% vs 9.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

データなし(8)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-スコア

2/9

重大な財務上の懸念

score
criteria

利益の質

4.25

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Timotheus HottgesChairman of Management Board & CEO63
Dr. Christian P. IllekCFO & Product and Technology & Member of Management Board61
Dr. Ferri Abolhassan Pur-MoghaddamMember of the Executive Board61
Mr. Thorsten LangheimMember of Management Board & Executive VP of Group Corporate Development and USA59
Ms. Birgit M. BohleMember of Mgt Board,Chief HR Officer & Legal Affairs,Labor Director&Member of Data Privacy Adv Board52
Mr. Rodrigo Francisco DiehlMember of Management Board50
Dr. Guillaume MaisondieuSenior Vice President of Group Accounting & Customer Finance-
Mr. Hannes WittigHead of Investor Relations-
Dr. Claudia JunkerExecutive VP, Head of the Legal, Compliance & Data Privacy Department-
Ms. Marie von der GroebenChief Compliance Officer-

監査リスク

3

取締役会リスク

3

報酬リスク

5

株主権利リスク

1

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

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