First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
POSITIVEファンダメンタル
84
株価
$206.09
時価総額
$22.39B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
First Solar designs, manufactures and sells solar modules built with cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film technology rather than the crystalline silicon used by most of the industry, avoiding the polysilicon supply chain that runs largely through China. Its customers are utility-scale developers, independent power producers and utilities that build large solar farms, mostly in the United States. It operates as a single business segment: modules.
収益の仕組み
Revenue comes from selling physical solar modules under multi-year supply agreements booked well in advance of delivery, which gives First Solar an unusually large order backlog relative to current sales. Manufacturing entirely in the United States also qualifies the company for federal production tax credits tied to domestic content, which lower its effective cost and help it compete on price against lower-cost imported panels.
競争優位性（moat）
コスト優位性 · 狭いDomestic manufacturing plus federal production tax credits give First Solar a cost position against tariff-exposed imported panels that competitors without US factories cannot match, and its CdTe technology sidesteps the polysilicon supply chain entirely. The advantage rests heavily on policy: it would narrow quickly if trade protection or the tax credit regime changed.
需要を左右する要因
景気循環型Demand comes from large capital projects — utility-scale solar farms — whose financing depends on interest rates, government incentives and utilities' long-term capacity planning, all of which can shift with policy changes or credit conditions. Bookings can also swing when customers renegotiate or cancel contracts, which shows up in First Solar's results as termination payments rather than steady module sales.
主なリスク
- Dependence on policy incentives — The company's cost advantage rests partly on US production tax credits and tariffs on imported panels; a change in either policy area would remove some of the pricing edge it currently has domestically.
- Concentrated customer base and contract cancellations — A small number of large developers and utilities account for a meaningful share of sales, and contract terminations by customers have already been a source of revenue in recent years rather than a risk avoided.
- Concentrated supply chain for key materials — Cadmium telluride, substrate glass and specialised manufacturing equipment are sourced from a limited number of suppliers, so a shortage or disruption at one of them can constrain production directly.
- Capacity built ahead of confirmed demand — The company commits to manufacturing capacity and long lead-time investments before all corresponding demand is firm; if bookings fail to materialise as planned, it carries the cost of underused capacity.
顧客集中度
主要顧客が売上高の21%を占める
In 2025, Silicon Ranch Corporation and NextEra Energy each accounted for roughly 10% or more of net sales, together about a fifth of the total. Losing either relationship would leave a gap not easily filled given how few buyers exist for utility-scale module volumes.
強気材料
Buyers argue that being the largest US-based solar manufacturer positions First Solar to keep capturing policy support and tariff protection that Asian-made panels cannot access, backed by a large multi-year order book that gives unusual revenue visibility for the industry.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that a business this dependent on tax credits and trade protection is one policy reversal away from losing its price advantage, and that concentrated large customers who have already shown they will cancel contracts could do so again.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$5.38B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$1.75B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$1.19B
自己資本合計
$9.54B
負債合計
$3.78B
流動比率
2.52
利払い倍率
46.88
負債/EBITDA
0.09
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$299.59
現在株価
$206.09
安全マージン
+31.2%
適正価値レンジ
$194.73 - $404.45
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
12.84
ROE
16.0%
P/B レシオ
2.17
P/FCF
14.92
粗利益率
44.0%
ROIC
12.7%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
12.7%
WACC
14.5%
ROIC − WACC
-1.8 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（24）
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 11.42%
- Price CAGR 20.91%
- ROIC 12.7%
- Gross Margin 44.0%
- P/FCF 14.92
- P/B Ratio 2.17
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 33.6%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 18.0%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 14.0%
- Analyst Consensus 65% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 13.3%
- PEG Ratio 0.45
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.23
- Share Dilution 0.1%
- Net Margin Trend 32.5% vs 29.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9
不合格（3）
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
データなし（1）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-スコア
財務健全性が高い
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式数は安定している
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Mark R. Widmar | CEO & Director | 59 |
| Mr. Alexander R. Bradley | Chief Financial Officer | 44 |
| Mr. Jason E. Dymbort | General Counsel & Secretary | 47 |
| Mr. Georges J. Antoun | Chief Commercial Officer | 62 |
| Mr. Kuntal Kumar Verma | Chief Manufacturing Officer | 52 |
| Mr. Nathan B. Theurer | VP, Global Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 44 |
| Mr. Markus Gloeckler | Chief Technology Officer | 51 |
| Mr. Byron Michael Jeffers | VP, Treasurer & Head of Investor Relations | 41 |
| Ms. Caroline Stockdale | Chief People & Communications Officer | 62 |
| Mr. Michael Koralewski | Chief Supply Chain Officer | 53 |
監査リスク
5
取締役会リスク
9
報酬リスク
8
株主権利リスク
7
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for FSLR, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 6/9/2026POSITIVEIf You Invested $1000 In First Solar Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
An investment of $1,000 in First Solar Inc. (FSLR) stock a decade ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the company's significant growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in this snippet, the headline implies a strong performance, likely driven by increased demand for solar energy solutions and the company's technological advancements. Investors considering FSLR should analyze its recent performance, competitive landscape, and the broader renewable energy sector trends to assess future potential.
- 3/2/2026NEGATIVEFirst Solar's $2 Billion Problem
First Solar Inc. is facing increasing financial vulnerability, highlighted by its heavy reliance on government subsidies. With an estimated $2 billion problem, the company's profits in the solar energy sector are significantly influenced by these external contributions. This dependency raises concerns among investors regarding the long-term sustainability of First Solar's business model. While subsidies can provide an immediate boost, their potential reduction or elimination could drastically impact the company's profitability and financial stability, making it susceptible to shifts in government policies and market conditions. Analysts suggest caution, given the inherent fragility of a company whose margins are so closely tied to external factors.
- 2/25/2026NEGATIVEWhy First Solar Stock Slumped Today
First Solar's stock experienced a significant slump today, reflecting market concerns regarding the dynamic between the company's expanding production capacity and actual demand. Despite First Solar's efforts to increase its capacity, a key growth driver in the solar energy sector, investors appear skeptical about the company's ability to translate this expansion into a proportional increase in demand. This imbalance suggests that supply might outpace demand in the short term, putting pressure on prices and margins. The negative market reaction underscores the need for First Solar to demonstrate a clear strategy to stimulate demand and ensure that its capacity investments are justified by a sustained order flow, otherwise the stock could continue to suffer.
- 2/24/2026NEUTRALFirst Solar (FSLR) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
The market is keenly awaiting the details of First Solar Inc.'s financial performance, a leader in thin-film solar modules. Although the release of the Q4 2025 earnings transcript has been announced, key information regarding specific financial results, future projections, or management commentary is not yet available. Investors are in a holding pattern, unable to assess the impact of these results on FSLR's stock valuation. Without concrete data on revenues, earnings per share, or guidance, it is impossible to form a directional judgment. The financial community will closely monitor the full publication to understand the company's trajectory within the dynamic solar energy market.
- 2/24/2026NEGATIVEFirst Solar Stock Craters As Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates
First Solar Inc. experienced a significant drop in its stock price following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings report, which fell short of analyst estimates. The discrepancy between reported earnings and market expectations triggered an immediate negative reaction among investors, who are concerned about the company's future prospects in the solar energy sector. This event underscores the critical importance of quarterly performance in determining market confidence and stock valuation. Investors will closely monitor First Solar's next steps to understand how the company plans to address challenges and regain confidence after this setback.
via Markets Gazette