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Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE)

NEUTRAL
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationUnited States

ファンダメンタル

70

株価

$191.43

時価総額

$15.69B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Guidewire builds the software that property and casualty insurers use to run their core business: issuing policies, processing claims and billing customers. Insurers rent this software instead of maintaining their own aging systems built decades ago. Guidewire hosts it on its own cloud platform, handles the updates, and sells consulting and implementation services to help each insurer configure the system to its own products and rules.

収益の仕組み

Most revenue is subscription and support fees paid over the life of a multi-year cloud contract, which recur every year the insurer keeps using the system. A smaller, declining share is term licenses for insurers still running the older on-premise version. Services revenue comes from the lengthy, hands-on projects needed to configure and migrate an insurer's policies onto the platform, which can take a year or more per customer.

セグメント別売上高

Subscription and Support60.8%

Recurring cloud-hosting and support fees paid by insurers running Guidewire's PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter and BillingCenter systems.

License20.9%

Term licenses sold mainly to insurers still running the older, self-hosted version of the software rather than the cloud platform.

Services18.2%

Consulting and implementation work to configure and migrate an insurer's policies, claims and billing processes onto the platform.

競争優位性(moat)

スイッチングコスト · 狭い

Once an insurer has spent a year or more configuring its policies, rating rules and claims workflows inside Guidewire's system, ripping it out means redoing that work on a competing platform while keeping the business running. That friction, more than the software itself, is what keeps existing customers renewing rather than switching to a rival core-systems vendor.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

Insurers buy Guidewire's systems as multi-year technology investments funded from their own IT budgets, which they can defer or accelerate depending on their profitability and how urgently they need to replace aging systems. Demand is not driven by end-consumer spending, so it is less exposed to a typical recession, but a large contract's timing can still slip if an insurer's own results are under pressure.

主なリスク

  • Reliance on a small number of large customers — The company discloses that a relatively small number of large insurance customers generate a meaningful share of revenue, giving those customers substantial negotiating leverage on price and terms.
  • Cloud market may not evolve as expected — Guidewire's strategy depends on insurers continuing to adopt cloud-based core systems; if that shift slows due to cost, security or reliability concerns, renewal rates and new sales could suffer.
  • Long and unpredictable sales and implementation cycles — Selling to large insurers and then implementing the software involves lengthy, variable cycles that can take many months or years, making individual deals and their timing hard to predict.
  • Competition from other core-systems and cloud vendors — The market for insurance core systems is competitive and changing quickly as customer preferences shift toward cloud deployment, and rivals or new entrants could erode Guidewire's position.

顧客集中度

主要顧客が売上高の22%を占める

In fiscal 2024 Guidewire's ten largest customers together accounted for about 22% of total revenue, giving those large insurers meaningful leverage to negotiate price and contract terms at renewal time.

強気材料

Buyers argue that the shift of large insurers onto Guidewire's cloud platform is still in its early stages, that the switching costs built into a fully configured core system make renewals highly likely, and that subscription revenue growing faster than the rest of the business signals durable, compounding demand.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that a small number of very large customers hold real negotiating power over price, that long implementation projects make growth lumpy and hard to predict, and that newer, AI-native software vendors could eventually challenge Guidewire's position in a market it does not yet fully dominate.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$1.42B

直近12か月(2026/4/30まで)

純利益

$160M

直近12か月(2026/4/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$295M

自己資本合計

$1.46B

負債合計

$1.26B

流動比率

2.44

利払い倍率

8.83

負債/EBITDA

10.86

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

割高

適正価値

$112.91

現在株価

$191.43

安全マージン

-69.5%

適正価値レンジ

$73.39 - $152.43

推定方法

Analyst Target:$202.43
DCF:$67.03
PE-based:$100.99
Graham Growth:$30.12
EPV:$11.03
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (18B / 3H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+8.08%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

103.17

ROE

4.8%

P/B レシオ

12.13

P/FCF

47.36

粗利益率

64.0%

ROIC

4.5%

収益性レーダー

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

4.5%

WACC

9.5%

ROIC − WACC

-4.9 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 6.85%
  • Price CAGR 14.39%
  • Gross Margin 64.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 8.2%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 11.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 10.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 22.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.19
  • Share Dilution -1.2%
  • Net Margin Trend 11.2% vs 3.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

不合格(7)

  • ROIC 4.5%
  • P/FCF 47.36
  • P/B Ratio 12.13
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

データなし(2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-スコア

8/9

財務健全性が高い

score
criteria

利益の質

2.19

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-1.2%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Michael George RosenbaumCEO & Director53
Mr. John MullenPresident52
Mr. Jeffrey Elliott CooperChief Financial Officer49
Mr. David F. PetersonPrincipal Accounting Officer & Chief Accounting Officer64
Mr. James Winston King J.D.Chief Administrative Officer, General Counsel & Secretary53
Mr. Chet MandairChief Information Officer-
Mr. Garo ToomajanianInvestor Relations-
Mr. Brian DesmondChief Marketing Officer-
Ms. Brigette McInnis-DayChief People Officer-
Mr. Steven SherrySenior Vice President of Strategic Accounts68

監査リスク

1

取締役会リスク

3

報酬リスク

4

株主権利リスク

2

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

Latest News

Recent headlines for GWRE, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/4/2026NEGATIVE
    Guidewire Software Posts Better-Than-Expected Q3 Report, But Stock Drops

    Guidewire Software reported Q3 results that surpassed analyst expectations, yet the company's stock experienced a decline. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the market's reaction suggests that forward-looking guidance or other qualitative factors may have disappointed investors. This divergence between reported earnings and stock performance highlights the importance of future outlook and market sentiment in stock valuation, potentially signaling underlying concerns about future growth or competitive pressures despite current operational successes.

  • 3/6/2026POSITIVE
    These Analysts Revise Their Forecasts On Guidewire Software Following Q2 Results

    Guidewire Software (GWRE) announced robust Q2 financial results, surpassing both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations. The company further bolstered investor sentiment by elevating its fiscal year 2026 financial projections. This positive performance spurred a notable 4.7% surge in its stock price. While analyst sentiment shows some divergence, with price target adjustments in both directions, the company's strong operational execution and optimistic forward guidance suggest underlying strength. Investors should monitor the sustainability of this growth trajectory and the market's reaction to the mixed analyst outlook.

  • 3/6/2026NEUTRAL
    Guidewire (GWRE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

    The Q2 2026 earnings call transcript for Guidewire Software Inc. (GWRE) has been released. While the specific content is not available, the release of such transcripts is standard practice for publicly traded companies. Investors typically analyze these documents for details on financial performance, future outlook, business strategies, and management's responses to analyst questions. The availability of the transcript allows for in-depth analysis, but without specific content details, the stock's impact remains neutral pending further information.

via Markets Gazette