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Insmed Incorporated (INSM)

NEUTRAL
HealthcareBiotechnologyUnited States

ファンダメンタル

43

株価

$123.46

時価総額

$27.47B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Insmed is a biopharmaceutical company that develops drugs for rare lung and inflammatory diseases with no or few approved treatments. Its first product, ARIKAYCE, is an inhaled antibiotic for a chronic lung infection caused by nontuberculous mycobacteria. In August 2025 it launched a second product, BRINSUPRI (brensocatib), the first approved treatment for bronchiectasis, a disease that damages the airways and had no dedicated drug until then. Both are chronic therapies patients take on an ongoing basis rather than a single course.

収益の仕組み

Insmed books revenue when specialty pharmacies and distributors take delivery of product, net of rebates and discounts negotiated with payors. Both drugs are priced as specialty medicines for rare or underserved diseases, so a relatively small number of patients generates meaningful revenue per prescription. BRINSUPRI is only months into its launch, so 2025 revenue reflects a partial year; the company has guided to roughly a billion dollars of BRINSUPRI sales in 2026 as prescribing ramps.

セグメント別売上高

ARIKAYCE71.5%

Inhaled antibiotic for nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease, Insmed's original and still-largest product.

BRINSUPRI28.5%

First approved treatment for bronchiectasis, launched in August 2025 and still ramping toward a much larger patient population.

競争優位性(moat)

特許・ライセンス · 狭い

Both drugs are protected by patents and by the years of clinical development it takes to prove a therapy safe and effective in a rare disease, which discourages new entrants. The moat is narrow rather than wide: orphan-drug status and regulatory exclusivity are time-limited, and competitors are actively developing rival treatments for the same conditions.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

Both drugs treat chronic, serious lung conditions that patients and physicians do not defer because of the economy: once diagnosed, treatment is a medical necessity rather than a discretionary purchase, and it is largely paid for by insurance. Demand instead depends on diagnosis rates, physician awareness of a still-new disease category, and payor willingness to reimburse at the price set.

主なリスク

  • Dependence on two products — Nearly all revenue comes from ARIKAYCE and the newly launched BRINSUPRI. Any manufacturing problem, safety signal or competitive setback affecting either drug would have an outsized effect on the company.
  • Reimbursement and pricing risk — Revenue depends on government and private payors continuing to cover both drugs at prices that support the business; unfavorable reimbursement decisions could reduce prescribing or force price concessions.
  • Reliance on third-party manufacturing — Insmed relies on outside manufacturers and suppliers to produce its drugs; a disruption at one of them could interrupt supply of a product for which there may be no immediate substitute.
  • Market acceptance of a new therapy — BRINSUPRI treats a disease that had no approved drug before it; how quickly physicians diagnose and prescribe for a newly defined market is uncertain and central to the 2026 growth the company has guided to.

強気材料

Buyers argue that BRINSUPRI opens an entirely new, underdiagnosed disease category with no approved competitor, that ARIKAYCE still has room to grow as awareness spreads, and that a company moving from single-product to two-product commercial scale is closer to sustained profitability than its history suggests.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that BRINSUPRI's launch trajectory could fall short of the roughly billion-dollar 2026 guidance if diagnosis and prescribing ramp more slowly than hoped, that rival companies are racing to develop competing bronchiectasis treatments, and that a business still built on two drugs remains fragile to a single setback in either one.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$1.14B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$-875M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$-968M

自己資本合計

$739M

負債合計

$1.53B

流動比率

3.72

利払い倍率

10.34

負債/EBITDA

-

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

割安

適正価値

$200.05

現在株価

$123.46

安全マージン

+38.3%

適正価値レンジ

$190.04 - $210.05

推定方法

Analyst Target:$200.05
DCF:-
PE-based:-
Graham Growth:-
EPV:-
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (29B / 1H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+92.50%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

-

ROE

-172.8%

P/B レシオ

35.74

P/FCF

-

粗利益率

83.5%

ROIC

-39.9%

収益性レーダー

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-39.9%

WACC

9.1%

ROIC − WACC

-49.0 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(9)

  • Price CAGR 25.26%
  • Gross Margin 83.5%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 29.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 97% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 17.4%
  • Net Margin Trend -76.9% vs -259.8%

不合格(11)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • ROIC -39.9%
  • P/B Ratio 35.74
  • Operating Margin -73.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE -111.3%
  • Share Dilution 21.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

データなし(7)

  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)

Piotroski F-スコア

4/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

-

低品質:会計処理を調査してください

株式希薄化

21.2%

新株を発行しており、所有権を希薄化している

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. William H. Lewis J.D., M.B.A.President, CEO & Chairman56
Ms. Sara M. Bonstein M.B.A.Chief Financial Officer44
Mr. Roger Adsett M.B.A.Chief Operating Officer56
Mr. Michael Alexander Smith J.D.Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary47
Dr. Martina Flammer M.B.A., M.D.Chief Medical Officer61
Mr. Brian K. Kaspar Ph.D.Chief Scientific Officer51
Bryan DunnVice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Christie CamelioChief Compliance Officer-
Ms. Claire MulhearnVice President of Corporate Communications-
Ms. S. Nicole Schaeffer M.B.A.Chief People Strategy Officer57

監査リスク

5

取締役会リスク

4

報酬リスク

6

株主権利リスク

9

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

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