lululemon athletica inc. (LULU)
NEUTRALファンダメンタル
76
株価
$118.09
時価総額
$13.94B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Lululemon designs and sells premium athletic apparel and accessories — leggings, yoga wear, outerwear — built around a technical, performance-oriented positioning that supports higher prices than mainstream sportswear brands. Unlike most apparel companies, it sells mostly through its own stores and website rather than through department stores or third-party retailers, which lets it control pricing and the in-store experience directly.
収益の仕組み
Nearly all revenue comes from selling apparel and accessories directly to consumers, split between company-operated stores and e-commerce, with only a small wholesale and licensing contribution. Because it controls its own retail channel, lululemon has historically relied on scarcity and full-price selling rather than heavy discounting, though markdown activity has increased recently as growth in its home North American market has slowed.
競争優位性（moat）
ブランド · 狭いLululemon built a loyal community around its brand and technical product quality that has supported premium pricing for years, reinforced by a direct retail model that keeps the shopping experience consistent. That advantage has weakened lately: revenue in its core Americas market has been flat to declining even as newer competitors like Alo Yoga and Vuori chip away at its positioning.
需要を左右する要因
景気循環型Premium apparel is discretionary spending that consumers cut back on before necessities when budgets tighten, and lululemon's pricing sits well above mainstream athletic wear, making it more exposed to a pullback than value-oriented competitors. Growth has become increasingly dependent on international expansion, especially China, to offset a maturing North American market.
主なリスク
- Slowing growth in the core Americas market — Net revenue in the Americas has recently declined even as international regions grew, raising the question of whether the home market is approaching saturation or losing share to newer competitors.
- Reliance on continued brand desirability — Premium pricing only holds as long as the brand stays culturally relevant; if consumer tastes shift toward newer athleisure labels, lululemon would likely have to discount more heavily, compressing margins.
- Growing reliance on China for growth — China Mainland has become one of the fastest-growing regions for the company, which increases exposure to Chinese consumer sentiment, currency movements and geopolitical or regulatory friction between China and the United States.
- International sourcing and tariff exposure — Apparel is manufactured through contract factories across several countries; changes in tariffs or trade policy directly raise input costs that the company must either absorb or pass on to price-sensitive customers.
強気材料
Buyers argue that international expansion, led by China's strong double-digit growth, can more than offset a maturing North American business, and that lululemon's direct retail model and brand strength still support pricing that mass-market competitors cannot replicate.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that a declining Americas business signals the brand has lost some of its premium cachet to newer athleisure labels, and that increased markdown activity shows lululemon is already having to compete more on price than its positioning was built to require.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$11.20B
直近12か月（2026/5/3まで）
純利益
$1.46B
直近12か月（2026/5/3まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$922M
自己資本合計
$4.96B
負債合計
$3.49B
流動比率
2.23
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
0.79
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$289.56
現在株価
$118.09
安全マージン
+59.2%
適正価値レンジ
$188.21 - $390.90
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
9.94
ROE
31.8%
P/B レシオ
2.76
P/FCF
10.40
粗利益率
55.7%
ROIC
24.0%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
24.0%
WACC
8.2%
ROIC − WACC
+15.8 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（21）
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 20.59%
- Price CAGR 6.42%
- ROIC 24.0%
- Gross Margin 55.7%
- P/FCF 10.40
- P/B Ratio 2.76
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 18.3%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 31.3%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 20.3%
- Earnings Surprise avg 4.9%
- PEG Ratio 0.41
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.33
- Share Dilution -3.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
不合格（5）
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Analyst Consensus 5% Buy
- Net Margin Trend 13.0% vs 16.8%
データなし（2）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル：一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Ms. Meghan C. Frank | Interim Co-CEO & CFO | 48 |
| Mr. Andre Maestrini | Interim Co-CEO, President & Chief Commercial Officer | 61 |
| Mr. Edward Dagnese | Chief Supply Chain Officer | 59 |
| Ms. Nicole Neuburger | Chief Brand & Product Activation Officer | 43 |
監査リスク
7
取締役会リスク
8
報酬リスク
10
株主権利リスク
9
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for LULU, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 7d agoNEGATIVEPrevisioni su Lululemon: perché il titolo potrebbe crollare sotto i 100$ a breve
Lululemon Athletica Inc. is facing significant headwinds, with its stock down 44% year-to-date and 71% over the past five years. This underperformance mirrors broader industry struggles, as Nike has fallen 50% in 12 months, Adidas is down 50% over five years, and On Holding has declined 33% in the same period. The company's business, which saw a pandemic boom, is now under pressure in key areas. The article suggests LULU could fall below $100, indicating a severe and prolonged downturn for the athletic apparel retailer.
- 6/8/2026NEGATIVEMichael Burry Sees Echoes Of His 2019 GameStop Bet In Lululemon: 'The Last Time I Owned A Stock As Hated...'
Noted investor Michael Burry has drawn a parallel between his current position in Lululemon Athletica Inc. and his infamous 2019 bet on GameStop, describing Lululemon as 'the last time I owned a stock as hated.' This sentiment suggests Burry perceives significant negative sentiment and potential short-selling pressure surrounding Lululemon. Historically, Burry's 'hated stock' calls have preceded significant price movements, often to the upside if his contrarian thesis proves correct, but the immediate implication of 'hated' points to prevailing bearish sentiment.
- 6/5/2026NEGATIVEWall Street Sours on Lululemon Shares After Sales Outlook Cut
Lululemon Athletica Inc. has seen its analyst ratings plummet, with only one Wall Street firm maintaining a 'buy' recommendation. This sharp downgrade follows the company's decision to slash its annual sales forecast, a move attributed to a significant downturn in North American sales. The athletic apparel retailer's stock is facing increased scrutiny as investors digest the implications of weakening consumer demand in its core markets. This revised outlook suggests potential headwinds for future revenue and profitability, prompting caution among market participants.
- 6/4/2026NEGATIVELululemon’s fight with its founder has been bad enough to hurt sales for the entire year
Lululemon Athletica Inc. has revised its full-year sales forecast downwards, citing ongoing issues stemming from its dispute with founder Chip Wilson. This adjustment signals potential headwinds for the athletic apparel company, which has been grappling with internal discord that appears to be impacting its top-line performance. Investors will be closely monitoring management's strategy to navigate these challenges and restore consumer confidence, as the founder's public commentary and legal battles may be deterring shoppers. The revised outlook suggests a more cautious approach is warranted for the remainder of the fiscal year.
via Markets Gazette