Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
NEUTRALファンダメンタル
74
株価
$490.39
時価総額
$3.62T
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Microsoft sells software and cloud computing to businesses and consumers. Its products span office productivity software, business applications, operating systems, video games, and — its largest growth engine — Azure, a rented computing platform that lets other companies run their own software and AI models on Microsoft's data centres instead of building their own.
収益の仕組み
Most revenue is recurring: Office, many business applications and parts of Windows are sold as subscriptions billed monthly or annually, and Azure is billed by the amount of computing capacity a customer actually consumes. This makes revenue far more predictable than a company that sells one-off licences or hardware, and gives Microsoft visibility into future revenue through signed but not yet delivered cloud contracts.
セグメント別売上高
Office 365, LinkedIn, and Dynamics business applications — mostly subscription revenue billed to companies and individual users.
Azure cloud computing and server products. The fastest-growing segment and the one most tied to AI infrastructure spending.
Windows licensing, Surface devices, gaming (Xbox) and Bing search advertising — the slowest-growing segment, tied to PC and console sales.
競争優位性（moat）
スイッチングコスト · 広いBusinesses run their email, documents, identity management and internal tools on Microsoft's stack, and migrating any one of these to a competitor requires retraining staff and rebuilding integrations across the whole company. Azure adds a second layer of lock-in once a customer's applications are built to run on it. The result is a customer base that rarely leaves even when a rival product is technically comparable.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性Subscription software revenue is fairly steady because it renews automatically and businesses rarely cancel core tools like email or Office. Azure and PC-related revenue are more sensitive to the economic cycle, since cloud spending can be optimised down in a downturn and PC sales track corporate refresh budgets and consumer discretionary spending.
主なリスク
- Intense cloud competition — Azure competes against Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, both well-capitalised and investing heavily in the same AI infrastructure. Price competition and customer negotiating power in this market can compress margins.
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny — Microsoft's size and bundling practices across Office, Windows, Teams and cloud services draw sustained antitrust attention in the US, EU and elsewhere, which can force product changes or result in fines.
- Heavy AI infrastructure spending — Microsoft is committing very large sums to data centres and chips to meet AI demand. If that demand grows more slowly than the capacity being built, the return on this spending falls short.
- Cybersecurity incidents — As the operator of identity, email and cloud infrastructure for a large share of the world's businesses, a serious security breach involving Microsoft's own systems would damage trust across its entire customer base at once.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Microsoft's grip on business software gives it a captive customer base to sell Azure and AI tools into, that Intelligent Cloud growth still has years to run as more computing shifts off-premises, and that recurring subscription revenue makes the business unusually resilient through downturns.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that AI infrastructure spending is outrunning proven demand, that antitrust pressure could eventually force apart the bundling that keeps customers locked in, and that Azure's growth rate must keep decelerating simply because the base it is growing from is now so large.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$331.84B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$133.75B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$66.99B
自己資本合計
$442.39B
負債合計
$315.99B
流動比率
1.23
利払い倍率
50.88
負債/EBITDA
0.66
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$432.74
現在株価
$490.39
安全マージン
-13.3%
適正価値レンジ
$281.28 - $584.20
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
27.15
ROE
30.2%
P/B レシオ
8.18
P/FCF
54.02
粗利益率
67.9%
ROIC
20.8%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
20.8%
WACC
10.3%
ROIC − WACC
+10.5 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（21）
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 13.39%
- Price CAGR 22.77%
- ROIC 20.8%
- Gross Margin 67.9%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 46.8%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 33.2%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 14.6%
- Analyst Consensus 93% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 6.4%
- PEG Ratio 1.59
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.37
- Share Dilution -0.2%
- Net Margin Trend 40.3% vs 36.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
不合格（6）
- P/FCF 54.02
- P/B Ratio 8.18
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
データなし（1）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル：一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Satya Nadella | Chairman & CEO | 58 |
| Mr. Bradford L. Smith LCA | President & Vice Chairman | 66 |
| Ms. Amy E. Hood | Executive VP & CFO | 53 |
| Mr. Takeshi Numoto | Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Judson B. Althoff | Executive VP & CEO of Commercial Business | 52 |
| Ms. Carolina Dybeck Happe | Executive VP & COO | 53 |
| Ms. Alice L. Jolla | Corporate VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Matthew Kerner | CTO & Corporate VP of Worldwide Sales and Solutions | - |
| Jonathan Neilson | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Jonathan M. Palmer | Corporate Vice President & Chief Legal Officer | - |
監査リスク
9
取締役会リスク
7
報酬リスク
5
株主権利リスク
2
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for MSFT, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 8d agoNEGATIVEPerché le azioni Microsoft scendono del 3% oggi?
Microsoft shares declined approximately 3.2% following a report by The Guardian questioning the adequacy of advanced AI chips installed to support its rapid AI infrastructure expansion. The report suggested a potential discrepancy between Microsoft's communicated data center growth and its installed AI chip capacity. While Microsoft refuted these claims, citing flawed assumptions, the concerns emerged shortly after JPMorgan raised its price target for Microsoft, citing strong growth prospects for Azure and Microsoft 365 Commercial Cloud amid accelerating AI infrastructure spending. Investors are weighing these concerns against the company's positive growth outlook.
- 8d agoPOSITIVEMicrosoft-Tied ‘Project Odyssey’ Bond Lures Buyers at Junk Yield
Microsoft Corp. is linked to a corporate-bond sale, 'Project Odyssey,' which is set to increase to $3.9 billion. The issuance, aimed at financing data centers, attracted demand exceeding twice its size, despite offering yields comparable to junk bonds. This strong investor appetite suggests confidence in Microsoft's underlying business and its data center expansion strategy. The successful debt offering provides Microsoft with capital for growth initiatives, potentially enhancing its competitive position in cloud computing and AI infrastructure.
- 12d agoNEUTRALMicrosoft begins to merge consumer and enterprise Copilot apps in push for super app
Microsoft is initiating the integration of its consumer and enterprise Copilot applications into a single, unified experience. This strategic move, starting with a limited user group this week, aims to streamline AI-powered assistance across different user segments. While the long-term impact on user adoption and competitive positioning is yet to be fully realized, the consolidation suggests a focus on simplifying its AI offerings and potentially enhancing user engagement by providing a consistent interface for both personal and professional use. Investors will monitor user feedback and the broader adoption rate of this unified platform.
- 15d agoPOSITIVEMicrosoft’s stock is charging back. Here’s the case for it to rally another 30%.
Microsoft's stock is showing strong upward momentum, with Bernstein analysts advocating for a potential 30% rally. Despite concerns about substantial AI investments, the analyst firm characterizes Microsoft's approach as "measured." This perspective suggests that the company's strategic allocation of resources towards artificial intelligence is efficient and sustainable, potentially leading to significant future returns. Investors are likely to view this measured approach positively, anticipating that Microsoft will successfully leverage its AI initiatives for continued growth and market leadership, thereby justifying a higher valuation.
- 22d agoPOSITIVEMicrosoft’s stock is on a run not seen in 26 years — erasing its year-to-date losses
Microsoft's stock has experienced a remarkable rally, achieving performance not seen in 26 years and successfully erasing its year-to-date losses. This surge is attributed to the company's strategic capital investments beginning to yield significant returns. The market is interpreting this as a sign of sustained growth potential, suggesting that the current upward trend in Microsoft's share price has strong underlying support. Investors are likely to view this development positively, anticipating continued positive momentum and potential further appreciation.
- 25d agoPOSITIVEAI stocks may have bottomed out. What investors should watch for next.
Microsoft's recent earnings report has injected optimism into the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, suggesting a potential bottom for AI-related stocks. This positive sentiment is further bolstered by the trading dynamics observed during a hedge fund's liquidation event, which, despite initial concerns, did not lead to a sustained downturn. For investors, these developments indicate that the underlying fundamentals supporting AI growth remain strong, and the sector may be poised for a recovery. Key indicators to monitor include future AI-driven revenue streams and the broader market's reaction to technological advancements.
- 26d agoNEUTRALMicrosoft Rallies on Earnings as Meta Slides with AI in Focus | The Pulse 7/30/2026
Microsoft experienced a rally following its latest earnings report, indicating positive investor sentiment around its financial performance. However, the broader context of the article highlights Meta's slide, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) being a central theme for both tech giants. While Microsoft's specific earnings performance is a positive driver, the overall market sentiment and the competitive landscape in AI, as suggested by Meta's performance, introduce a degree of uncertainty. Investors are likely weighing Microsoft's individual success against broader industry trends and competitive pressures in the AI space.
via Markets Gazette