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NICE Ltd (NICE)

NEUTRAL
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationIsrael

ファンダメンタル

77

株価

$99.41

時価総額

$5.87B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

NICE, an Israeli company listed in the US, sells cloud software to two very different kinds of customer. Contact centers use its platform to route calls and chats, guide agents in real time and increasingly hand routine conversations to AI. Banks and other regulated financial firms use a separate line of software to spot money laundering and fraud in their transaction flows. Both businesses sell to the same kind of buyer: large enterprises that cannot easily rip out software once it runs a core process.

収益の仕組み

Most revenue now comes from cloud subscriptions billed recurrently rather than one-time software licenses; cloud revenue grew 13% in 2025 while the on-premise portion shrinks as customers migrate. Contracts with large enterprises and financial institutions run multiple years, giving revenue visibility, but the company must keep investing in AI features to defend pricing as customers compare it against newer, AI-native rivals rather than legacy on-premise vendors.

セグメント別売上高

Customer Engagement83%

Cloud contact-center software (CXone) that routes and analyzes customer interactions and increasingly automates them with AI agents.

Financial Crime and Compliance17%

Software sold to banks and financial institutions to detect money laundering, fraud and market abuse (the Actimize product line).

競争優位性(moat)

スイッチングコスト · 狭い

Both product lines get woven into processes that are expensive to disrupt: a bank's anti-money-laundering rules or a call center's routing logic, once configured, is costly to migrate and carries compliance risk if it goes wrong. That said, competition from cloud-native customer-experience and AI startups is intensifying, and the moat has not stopped recent margin pressure and share-price declines.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

Contact-center software spending follows corporate IT budgets and can be trimmed in a downturn, but much of it replaces headcount rather than adding cost, which cushions demand. Financial-crime and compliance software is closer to defensive: banks buy it because regulators require it, not because business is good, so that half of revenue is less exposed to the economic cycle than the customer-experience half.

主なリスク

  • Intensifying AI competition in customer experience — New AI-native entrants and larger platform vendors are competing directly for the customer-experience budget NICE has historically held, pressuring both growth and profitability as the company invests to keep pace.
  • Cloud transition and margin pressure — Shifting revenue from on-premise licenses to cloud subscriptions changes the timing and shape of margins during the transition, and the company has flagged profitability pressure while it invests in AI capabilities.
  • AI-related privacy and operational risk — Embedding AI and generative-AI models into products used by banks and call centers raises privacy, security and operational risks that the company itself flags as it expands these features.
  • Operations based in Israel — A meaningful part of NICE's research and operations sits in Israel, exposing the company to regional political and security instability that could disrupt staff, facilities or customer confidence.

顧客集中度

NICE does not disclose revenue concentration among individual customers; its exposure runs instead through geography, with North America the dominant market for both product lines.

強気材料

Buyers argue that NICE's compliance software is protected by regulatory necessity that AI hype cannot easily disrupt, that its double-digit cloud growth shows the customer-experience business is still winning share, and that a sell-off driven by AI competition fears has made the stock cheap relative to a durable, recurring-revenue base.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that AI-native rivals will erode NICE's position in customer-experience software faster than the compliance business can compensate, that the cloud transition keeps squeezing margins for longer than expected, and that a company built on North American enterprise contracts is more exposed to a single region's IT spending than diversification would suggest.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$3.07B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$425M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$615M

自己資本合計

$151M

負債合計

$88M

流動比率

1.33

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

0.11

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

割安

適正価値

$207.51

現在株価

$99.41

安全マージン

+52.1%

適正価値レンジ

$134.88 - $280.14

推定方法

Analyst Target:$125.85
DCF:$524.61
PE-based:$50.97
Graham Growth:$353.67
EPV:$101.56
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (10B / 5H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+0.11%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

14.59

ROE

11.3%

P/B レシオ

39.01

P/FCF

9.55

粗利益率

65.1%

ROIC

140.5%

収益性レーダー

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

140.5%

WACC

8.0%

ROIC − WACC

+132.5 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(15)

  • ROIC 140.5%
  • Gross Margin 65.1%
  • P/FCF 9.55
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 14.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 12.3%
  • Analyst Consensus 67% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 0.41
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.10
  • Net Margin Trend 20.8% vs 16.2%

不合格(4)

  • Price CAGR 3.84%
  • P/B Ratio 39.01
  • Earnings Surprise avg -0.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

データなし(8)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-スコア

2/9

重大な財務上の懸念

score
criteria

利益の質

1.10

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Scott E. RussellChief Executive Officer52
Ms. Beth GaspichChief Financial Officer59
Mr. Dan BelangerPresident of NICE Americas-
Mr. Darren RushworthPresident of CE International57
Mr. Craig B. CostiganChief Executive Officer of NICE Actimize64
Mr. Arun ChandraChief Operating Officer64
Mr. Jeff ComstockPresident of CX Product & Technology-
Mr. Ryan GilliganVice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Alon LevyVP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary51
Ms. Shiri NederExecutive Vice President of Human Resources49

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

Latest News

Recent headlines for NICE, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 5/6/2026POSITIVE
    What's Going On With NICE Stock Wednesday?

    NICE Ltd. reported first-quarter 2026 results that surpassed analyst expectations, with earnings per share (EPS) reaching $2.64 against a consensus of $2.40. Total sales for the quarter amounted to $768.6 million, also exceeding the $750 million forecast. A key driver of this performance was the robust 14.6% year-over-year growth in cloud revenue, fueled by sustained momentum in artificial intelligence (AI) solutions. This strong showing indicates NICE's effective execution and its ability to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-driven cloud services, potentially signaling continued upward trajectory for the stock.

  • 3/15/2026NEGATIVE
    NICE Stock Fell Over 20% Last Quarter. One Investor Exited a $3 Million Position

    NICE Ltd., a provider of AI-driven cloud software for customer engagement and automation, experienced a significant decline in its stock value, falling over 20% in the last quarter. This downturn prompted at least one major investor to exit a substantial $3 million position. The company's focus on AI for enterprise solutions has not translated into positive market sentiment recently, suggesting potential headwinds or a reassessment of its growth prospects by the market.

  • 3/15/2026POSITIVE
    This Investor Is Betting $16 Million on a Software Stock Down 17% This Past Year. Here's What to Know

    An investor has placed a significant $16 million bet on NICE Ltd., an AI-powered cloud platform provider specializing in enterprise solutions for customer experience, analytics, and compliance. Despite the stock's 17% decline over the past year, this substantial investment signals strong conviction in the company's future prospects. NICE's focus on AI and cloud technologies positions it well within key growth sectors, potentially driving a recovery and future appreciation for shareholders. The investment may indicate an undervaluation by the market or confidence in upcoming catalysts.

via Markets Gazette