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OGE Energy Corp. (OGE)

NEUTRAL
UtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricUnited States

ファンダメンタル

53

株価

$46.05

時価総額

$9.43B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

OGE Energy is a holding company whose main asset is OG&E, the largest electric utility in Oklahoma. OG&E generates, transmits, distributes and sells electricity to about 913,000 retail customers across a 30,000-square-mile service area covering Oklahoma City and Fort Smith, Arkansas. It owns coal, natural-gas, wind and solar generation and operates as a regulated monopoly: state and federal commissions set the rates it can charge in exchange for an obligation to serve every customer in its territory.

収益の仕組み

OG&E earns a regulated return on the capital it invests in power plants, wires and grid infrastructure, set by the Oklahoma and Arkansas commissions and the FERC. It collects revenue by billing customers for electricity used, plus a separate fuel-adjustment clause that passes coal and natural-gas costs through to customers without markup. Growth comes mainly from adding new customer load and from rate increases approved after the company files for a general rate review.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

OG&E holds an exclusive franchise to serve retail electricity customers across its territory, and no competitor can build a rival grid there. That exclusivity is granted and limited by regulators, who cap the return OG&E earns on its investments, so the advantage shows up as a stable, low-risk business rather than outsized profit.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

Electricity is a necessity with limited substitutes, so OG&E's demand is far steadier than the broader economy — the risk framework the company describes is regulatory and weather-driven rather than tied to the business cycle. Demand does peak seasonally with summer air-conditioning load, and the company notes rising interest from data-center and cryptocurrency-mining customers as a new source of growth.

主なリスク

  • Regulatory cost-recovery risk — OG&E's profitability depends on regulators approving rate increases that let it recover its costs and cost of capital. The company states that a denial or delay of rate relief, or a future disallowance, could adversely affect its results.
  • Weather-driven demand and outage costs — Demand peaks with summer heat and results fluctuate seasonally; the company also warns that severe weather — tornadoes, ice storms, wildfires and droughts — can cause outages and restoration costs it may not fully recover through rates.
  • Dependence on coal and natural-gas suppliers — OG&E relies on suppliers and transporters to deliver coal and natural gas under contract, and states there is no assurance these counterparties will fulfill their obligations; disruption could force it to buy replacement power at higher cost.
  • Holding-company structure limits OGE Energy's access to cash — OGE Energy's only substantial asset is OG&E; its ability to pay dividends and service debt depends on dividends OG&E sends up, which state regulators can restrict, and OG&E's creditors are paid before OGE Energy's.
  • Concentration risk from large new customers — OG&E notes rising demand from data centers and cryptocurrency-mining operations, which could come to represent a significant share of revenue; nonpayment or reduced demand from such large loads would expose the company to counterparty credit risk.

強気材料

Buyers argue that OG&E's exclusive franchise and essential service produce steady, regulator-approved returns, that its 92%-Oklahoma rate base benefits from a historically constructive regulatory relationship, and that new large loads from data centers and crypto mining could accelerate rate-base growth for years.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that returns are capped by regulators who can deny or delay rate increases, that the shift to renewables and battery storage requires heavy capital spending with no guarantee of full recovery, and that a large new customer failing to materialize or pay could leave OG&E with stranded investment.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

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貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$3.19B

直近12か月(2026/3/31まで)

純利益

$458M

直近12か月(2026/3/31まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$83M

自己資本合計

$4.98B

負債合計

$9.39B

流動比率

0.66

利払い倍率

2.96

負債/EBITDA

4.31

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

割安

適正価値

$89.80

現在株価

$46.05

安全マージン

+48.7%

適正価値レンジ

$58.37 - $121.23

推定方法

Analyst Target:$50.45
DCF:$224.52
PE-based:$42.63
Graham Growth:$37.12
EPV:$37.27
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (7B / 11H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+0.00%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

20.43

ROE

9.5%

P/B レシオ

1.92

P/FCF

42.16

粗利益率

60.1%

ROIC

4.7%

収益性レーダー

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

4.7%

WACC

6.4%

ROIC − WACC

-1.7 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(14)

  • Gross Margin 60.1%
  • P/B Ratio 1.92
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 24.5%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 9.5%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 9.0%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.83
  • Share Dilution 0.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

不合格(12)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -0.42%
  • Price CAGR 3.15%
  • ROIC 4.6%
  • P/FCF 42.16
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 39% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -0.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 14.4% vs 15.8%

データなし(2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-スコア

8/9

財務健全性が高い

score
criteria

利益の質

2.83

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

0.6%

株式数は安定している

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Robert Sean TrauschkeChairman, President & CEO58
Mr. Charles B. Walworth CPAChief Financial Officer50
Mr. William H. Sultemeier J.D.General Counsel, Corporate Secretary & Chief Compliance Officer57
Mr. Donnie O. JonesSenior Vice President of Utility Operations of OG&E58
Mr. David A. ParkerChief Information Officer of OG&E48
Ms. Sarah R. StaffordChief Accounting Officer & Controller43
Mr. Jason BaileyTreasurer & Director of Investor Relations-
Mr. John Paul LawsChief Commercial Officer50
Cassandra StrangeInvestor Relations Manager-
Ms. Christine Ostendorf WoodworthVice President of Marketing & Communications - OG&E Company54

監査リスク

6

取締役会リスク

5

報酬リスク

2

株主権利リスク

3

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

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