Shopify Inc. (SHOP)
NEUTRALファンダメンタル
76
株価
$153.40
時価総額
$194.39B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Shopify provides the software that lets merchants, from individual sellers to large retailers, build and run an online store, accept payments, manage inventory and sell across multiple channels including social media and in-person point-of-sale. It does not sell its own products; it earns money by charging the merchants who use its platform. What began as software for small online shops has expanded into a full commerce operating system used by businesses of many sizes.
収益の仕組み
Revenue comes from two related sources: a recurring subscription fee for access to the Shopify platform, and a variable fee — mainly payment processing — charged as a percentage of the sales merchants make through the platform. The variable component now generates most of Shopify's revenue and grows automatically as merchants sell more, without Shopify needing to sign up a single new customer, giving the business built-in operating leverage as merchant volumes rise.
セグメント別売上高
Payment processing, currency conversion, lending and other transaction-based services that scale automatically with how much merchants sell.
Recurring platform fees, point-of-sale hardware and software, and app-store revenue paid by merchants to access Shopify's tools.
競争優位性（moat）
スイッチングコスト · 狭いA merchant's store, product catalog, customer data, apps and payment history all live inside Shopify, and migrating that to another platform is disruptive enough that most merchants stay put once set up. But new merchants can and do choose a competitor from the start, so the advantage protects the existing base more than it locks out rivals.
需要を左右する要因
景気循環型Shopify's revenue rises and falls with how much consumers spend at the merchants using its platform, which tracks overall retail and e-commerce activity and consumer confidence. New merchant sign-ups also slow when it becomes harder or riskier to start a small business, adding a second, related cycle on top of transaction volume.
主なリスク
- Exposure to small-business health — Many merchants on Shopify are small or newly started businesses, which are more likely to fail or cut spending in a weak economy than large, established retailers, directly reducing Shopify's transaction-based revenue.
- Competition from larger platforms — Shopify competes with large, well-funded rivals including Amazon and various point-of-sale and e-commerce platforms, some of which can bundle competing services more cheaply.
- Payments and lending risk — Shopify increasingly extends credit to merchants and processes payments directly, exposing it to loan losses and payment-fraud risk it did not carry when it was purely a software company.
- Platform reliability and security — An outage or security breach affecting Shopify's platform would disrupt sales for every merchant relying on it simultaneously, with reputational and financial consequences across the whole customer base.
顧客集中度
主要顧客が売上高の5%を占める
No single merchant has ever accounted for more than about 5% of revenue in a reporting period; Shopify's base spans millions of merchants across more than 175 countries, so no one customer's decisions move results.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Shopify's shift toward transaction-based merchant solutions revenue lets it grow automatically as merchants sell more, without needing to constantly sign new subscribers, and that its broad, deliberately unconcentrated merchant base reduces the risk of any single customer's decline.
弱気材料
Sellers worry that a large share of Shopify's merchants are small businesses especially exposed to a weakening consumer economy, that competition from larger platforms could compress fees over time, and that moving into payments and lending adds credit risk to a business that used to be pure software.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$13.27B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$1.93B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$2.01B
自己資本合計
$13.47B
負債合計
$1.72B
流動比率
5.35
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
0.12
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$137.97
現在株価
$153.40
安全マージン
-11.2%
適正価値レンジ
$95.04 - $180.90
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
100.54
ROE
9.1%
P/B レシオ
-
P/FCF
0.00
粗利益率
47.8%
ROIC
11.2%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
11.2%
WACC
18.0%
ROIC − WACC
-6.8 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（18）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 42.63%
- ROIC 11.2%
- Gross Margin 47.8%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 13.9%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 15.1%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 31.6%
- Analyst Consensus 79% Buy
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.23
- Share Dilution 0.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
不合格（4）
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- Earnings Surprise avg 0.4%
- PEG Ratio 3.50
- Net Margin Trend 14.5% vs 23.4%
データなし（5）
- P/FCF 0.00
- P/B Ratio NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Price below Graham Number
Piotroski F-スコア
財務健全性が高い
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式数は安定している
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Tobias Lutke | Founder, CEO, Head of R&D and Director | 44 |
| Mr. Harley Finkelstein | President | 42 |
| Mr. Jeff J. Hoffmeister CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 55 |
| Ms. Jessica Rose Hertz | Chief Operating Officer | 43 |
| Ms. Jean Niehaus | General Counsel | 42 |
| Ms. Shane Kleinstein | Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Bharati Balakrishnan | Country Head & Director- India | - |
| Darryl Arvai | VP & Corporate Controller | - |
| Michael L. Johnson | Corporate Secretary | - |
| Ms. Vanessa Lee | Product Director | - |
監査リスク
3
取締役会リスク
7
報酬リスク
10
株主権利リスク
10
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for SHOP, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 20d agoPOSITIVEShopify’s stock heads for best day in a year after the company ‘left no doubt’ about its growth trajectory
Shopify Inc. is poised for its best trading day in a year, with its stock surging following analyst praise for its clear growth trajectory and cost management. The e-commerce platform provider has demonstrated an ability to maintain fiscal discipline while signaling robust expansion trends. This dual approach of controlling expenses and projecting strong future growth has evidently resonated with investors, suggesting a positive outlook for the company's performance and market position. The market's reaction indicates strong confidence in Shopify's strategic execution and its potential for continued success in the online retail space.
- 6/4/2026POSITIVEShopify Boosts Buyback Program To $5 Billion: What Investors Need To Know
Shopify Inc. announced an expansion of its share repurchase program, increasing the authorization to $5 billion. This move signals management's confidence in the company's intrinsic value and its ability to generate strong free cash flow. Investors often view increased buybacks as a positive sign, suggesting that the company believes its stock is undervalued and aims to return capital to shareholders. The news has led to a higher trading price for SHOP shares today, indicating positive market reception to the enhanced capital return strategy.
- 5/29/2026POSITIVEIf You Invested $1000 In Shopify Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in Shopify Inc. (SHOP) a decade ago would have yielded a substantial return, highlighting the company's remarkable growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in this snippet, the article's premise suggests significant outperformance compared to broader market indices. This historical performance underscores Shopify's success in empowering e-commerce businesses and its strategic positioning within the digital retail landscape. Investors considering Shopify should evaluate its current valuation against its future growth prospects and competitive advantages in the evolving e-commerce sector.
- 5/14/2026POSITIVEJoshua Kushner’s Thrive Capital Invests $100 Million in Shopify
Thrive Capital, led by Joshua Kushner, has invested $100 million in Shopify Inc., signaling a significant vote of confidence from a prominent venture capital firm in the e-commerce giant. This marks a notable instance of Thrive Capital investing in a publicly traded company. The investment underscores Shopify's perceived value and future growth potential in the digital commerce landscape. For investors, this influx of capital from a well-regarded VC firm could enhance market sentiment and potentially lead to further strategic developments or partnerships for Shopify.
- 5/6/2026NEUTRALCathie Wood Dumps $16 Million Of AMD Stock On Post-Earnings Rally, Snaps Up $27 Million Of This Amazon Rival's Stock
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest offloaded $16 million worth of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares following a post-earnings surge. Concurrently, the firm reinvested $27 million into Shopify (SHOP) during its post-earnings decline. This strategic shift indicates a rotation out of AMD's rally and into Shopify's discounted valuation. ARK also reduced its stake in CoreWeave. For investors, this move suggests a belief in Shopify's long-term potential despite recent market fluctuations, while AMD's sell-off might be seen as profit-taking by a major holder.
- 5/1/2026NEGATIVEShopify Analyst Who Saw Selloff Says Too Soon to Buy
An analyst who previously issued a sell rating on Shopify Inc. due to valuation concerns, ahead of a significant price decline, has stated that it is still premature to initiate new buy positions. This cautious stance suggests that despite recent price movements, the underlying valuation concerns may persist, potentially limiting near-term upside for the e-commerce platform's stock. Investors are advised to monitor future earnings reports and market conditions before considering an entry point.
- 4/15/2026POSITIVEWhy Shopify Stock Is Surging On Wednesday?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) experienced a significant surge on Wednesday, propelled by a broader rally within the technology sector. This upward momentum was further bolstered by positive macroeconomic sentiment, specifically linked to ongoing de-escalation talks that are improving investor outlook. The confluence of a strong tech sector performance and optimistic economic indicators suggests a favorable environment for e-commerce platforms like Shopify, potentially signaling increased consumer spending and business investment in online retail infrastructure. Investors are likely reacting to the improved risk appetite and the perceived resilience of the tech industry.
via Markets Gazette