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Summerset Group Holdings Limited (SMGRF)

NEUTRAL
HealthcareMedical Care FacilitiesNew Zealand

ファンダメンタル

48

株価

$7.77

時価総額

$1.89B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Summerset builds and operates retirement villages in New Zealand and Australia, where it sells residents the right to occupy a unit for life in exchange for an upfront payment, then provides care services — from independent living to full nursing care — as residents age. It is both a developer, building new villages on land it buys, and a long-term operator running dining, care and community services for thousands of residents already living in its villages.

収益の仕組み

Revenue is a mix of several streams rather than a single product sale: weekly fees residents pay for care and village services, a share of the gain when a departing resident's occupation right is resold to a new one, and government subsidies for eligible aged-care residents that make up a majority of the care revenue. Because these streams are recognized differently — some upfront, some accrued over years of occupancy — reported revenue does not map cleanly onto new-unit sales in any given year.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

Demand is driven by an aging population choosing to move into a retirement village, a decision that is only loosely tied to the economic cycle since it follows health and life-stage needs more than discretionary spending power. It is not fully immune to downturns, though, since a resident's ability to buy an occupation right often depends on selling their existing home first.

強気材料

Buyers argue that an aging population in New Zealand and Australia gives Summerset a decades-long demand tailwind, that owning the land bank lets it capture development margin most competitors cannot, and that record deliveries and underlying profit in fiscal 2025 show the model scaling as intended.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that resales gains depend on house-price and property-market conditions outside the company's control, that a housing downturn could slow the pace at which prospective residents can sell their own homes to buy in, and that a large land and development bank ties up capital for years before it converts into cash.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

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貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$363M

直近の公表四半期までの12か月 — 1株当たり指標からの推計

純利益

$262M

直近の公表四半期までの12か月 — 1株当たり指標からの推計

フリーキャッシュフロー

$-74M

自己資本合計

$3.34B

負債合計

$1.99B

流動比率

0.13

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

65.83

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

割安

適正価値

$10.48

現在株価

$7.77

安全マージン

+25.9%

適正価値レンジ

$8.18 - $12.78

推定方法

Analyst Target:$13.02
DCF:$12.94
PE-based:$7.80
Graham Growth:$10.51
EPV:$8.19
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (8B / 2H / 0S)

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

7.23

ROE

8.3%

P/B レシオ

0.57

P/FCF

-

粗利益率

90.0%

ROIC

0.1%

収益性レーダー

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

0.1%

WACC

5.4%

ROIC − WACC

-5.3 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(9)

  • Gross Margin 90.0%
  • P/B Ratio 0.57
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 75.0%
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 8.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 16.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 80% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.11

不合格(9)

  • Price CAGR 4.65%
  • ROIC 0.1%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • PEG Ratio 6.00
  • Net Margin Trend 71.8% vs 106.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

データなし(9)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Earnings Surprise (Finnhub)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-スコア

2/9

重大な財務上の懸念

score
criteria

利益の質

2.11

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Scott Grady Scoullar BCA, C.A., FCPAChief Executive Officer-
Mr. John O'SullivanFounder-
Ms. Margaret WarringtonChief Financial Officer-
Ms. Robyn HeymanHead of Legal & Company Secretary-
Mr. David MartinChief Sales & Marketing Transformation Lead-
Ms. Chris Lokum BMSChief People Officer-
Mr. Dean Tallentire B.Sc.Chief Construction Officer of NZ-
Ms. Eleanor Young B.Sc.Chief Operating Officer of NZ-
Mr. Aaron Smail B.E., BBSChief Development Officer of NZ-
Mr. Stewart ScottChief Operating Officer of Australia-

監査リスク

4

取締役会リスク

4

報酬リスク

6

株主権利リスク

7

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

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