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Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX)

NEUTRAL
TechnologyComputer HardwareSingapore

ファンダメンタル

65

株価

$806.00

時価総額

$180.10B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Seagate makes hard disk drives — spinning-platter storage that is far cheaper per terabyte than flash memory, which is why it remains the default choice for storing the enormous and growing volume of data cloud providers keep. Its newest drives use a technology called HAMR to pack more data onto each platter. The bulk of its business is now selling these high-capacity drives directly to the operators of hyperscale cloud data centers.

収益の仕組み

Revenue comes from selling hardware, mostly high-capacity nearline drives to cloud and enterprise data centers, plus a smaller and shrinking business of drives for consumer and edge devices. Seagate does not disclose a separate percentage breakdown between these markets for fiscal 2025, reporting instead as a single storage-products business; management describes cloud and data-center demand as the large majority of sales. Pricing and margins move with industry-wide supply discipline among the few remaining drive makers.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

Only two companies, Seagate and Western Digital, still make hard drives at meaningful scale after years of industry consolidation, and building a competing factory network from scratch would take years and enormous capital. That scale advantage is real but narrow, because the product is still largely a commodity bought on cost-per-terabyte by a handful of powerful cloud buyers who can play the two suppliers against each other.

需要を左右する要因

景気循環型

Demand tracks the capacity-expansion plans of a small number of huge cloud operators, which order in large, lumpy batches tied to their own data-center build-outs. The industry has a long history of swinging between shortage and oversupply within a few quarters as those buyers adjust orders, making revenue and pricing considerably more volatile than end-user data growth alone would suggest.

主なリスク

  • Customer concentration among a few hyperscalers — A large share of revenue depends on a small number of very large cloud and data-center customers; a delay, cancellation or reduction of orders by any one of them can materially affect results.
  • Competition from Western Digital and flash storage — Seagate competes directly with Western Digital and Toshiba on hard drives, and indirectly with NAND flash suppliers as flash prices fall and encroach on use cases once reserved for hard disks.
  • Supplier and materials dependency — Manufacturing relies on single-source suppliers for some components and on rare earth elements and specialized alloys whose availability and price can be volatile.
  • Manufacturing footprint concentration — Production is concentrated in a handful of countries, leaving the company exposed to trade policy, tariffs and regional disruption at any single facility.

強気材料

Buyers argue that the AI-driven boom in data creation requires ever more cheap bulk storage, that Seagate's HAMR technology has reopened a capacity-per-platter lead over Western Digital, and that near-quadrupled profit and much wider margins in fiscal 2025 show the industry has finally found supply discipline rather than reverting to its old boom-bust pattern.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that hard drives remain a two-supplier commodity business bought by a handful of price-sensitive hyperscalers, that today's record margins reflect a temporary capacity shortage rather than a permanent shift, and that the industry's long history of overbuilding into every upcycle will repeat once again.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$12.20B

直近12か月(2026/7/3まで)

純利益

$3.18B

直近12か月(2026/7/3まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$3.10B

自己資本合計

$2.17B

負債合計

$7.80B

流動比率

1.67

利払い倍率

14.42

負債/EBITDA

0.89

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

割高

適正価値

$554.07

現在株価

$806.00

安全マージン

-45.5%

適正価値レンジ

$360.14 - $747.99

推定方法

Analyst Target:$1125.00
DCF:$250.03
PE-based:$6.07
Graham Growth:$11.55
EPV:$83.37
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (26B / 4H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+11.11%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

57.17

ROE

146.9%

P/B レシオ

83.11

P/FCF

58.00

粗利益率

45.6%

ROIC

47.3%

収益性レーダー

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

47.3%

WACC

15.9%

ROIC − WACC

+31.3 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 36.39%
  • ROIC 47.2%
  • Gross Margin 45.6%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 33.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 212.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 87% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 11.3%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.15
  • Net Margin Trend 26.1% vs 16.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

不合格(8)

  • P/FCF 58.00
  • P/B Ratio 83.11
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 2.7%
  • PEG Ratio 3.12
  • Share Dilution 5.6%

データなし(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-スコア

8/9

財務健全性が高い

score
criteria

利益の質

1.15

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

5.6%

新株を発行しており、所有権を希薄化している

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Dr. William David Mosley Ph.D.CEO & Chairman58
Mr. Gianluca RomanoExecutive VP & CFO56
Dr. John C. MorrisExecutive VP & CTO58
Mr. James C. Lee J.D.Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary55
Mr. Ban Seng TehExecutive VP & Chief Commercial Officer58
Mr. Kian Fatt ChongExecutive Vice President of Global Operations62
Ms. Shanye HudsonSenior Vice President of Investor Relations & Treasury-
Major General Patricia A. FrostExecutive VP and Chief People & Places Officer59

監査リスク

2

取締役会リスク

9

報酬リスク

6

株主権利リスク

8

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

Latest News

Recent headlines for STX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 28d agoPOSITIVE
    Seagate’s earnings are welcome news for the battered AI trade

    Seagate Technology Holdings plc reported June-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street's expectations, leading to an after-hours stock rally. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the positive earnings surprise suggests robust performance in its storage solutions, potentially benefiting from demand related to the AI trade. This positive outcome is likely to boost investor sentiment and could lead to upward price target revisions for the company's stock.

  • 5/19/2026NEGATIVE
    Seagate Leads Memory Stocks Lower Following Capacity Warning

    Seagate Technology (STX) shares declined significantly after its CEO voiced concerns about the industry's ability to meet the burgeoning demand for memory driven by artificial intelligence. This warning casts a shadow over the company's capacity to scale production effectively, potentially impacting future revenue streams and profitability. The broader memory sector also experienced a downturn as investors reacted to Seagate's cautionary outlook, suggesting a sector-wide challenge in balancing supply with the exponential growth in AI-related data storage needs. Investors are now reassessing their positions in memory chip manufacturers.

  • 5/13/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $1000 In Seagate Technology Hldgs Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) stock 20 years ago would have yielded a significant return, illustrating the long-term growth potential of the data storage solutions provider. While specific figures are not provided in the title, the framing suggests a substantial appreciation in value. This historical performance underscores the company's resilience and ability to adapt to evolving technological landscapes, making it a noteworthy consideration for investors focused on technology hardware with a long-term investment horizon.

  • 4/27/2026POSITIVE
    Seagate To Rally More Than 19%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Monday

    Seagate Technology is poised for a potential rally exceeding 19%, according to a compilation of 10 top analyst forecasts. Several Wall Street firms, including Truist Securities, Guggenheim, Benchmark, HC Wainwright, Stifel, Bank of America Securities, and Mizuho, have updated their ratings and price targets for the company. These revisions suggest a broadly positive sentiment among analysts, indicating confidence in Seagate's future performance and potential for significant stock appreciation. Investors should monitor these updated targets for potential entry or exit points.

  • 4/24/2026NEUTRAL
    Seagate, Semis, And E-Commerce: Tradr Doubles Down With New 2X ETFs

    Tradr has launched new 2X leveraged ETFs focusing on Seagate Technology, Coupang, and Monolithic Power Systems. These ETFs aim to provide traders with amplified exposure to the AI momentum and high-growth stock sectors. The introduction of leveraged products offers a way for sophisticated investors to potentially magnify returns, but also increases risk due to the inherent volatility of these sectors and the use of leverage. Investors should note that these instruments are designed for short-term trading strategies.

  • 4/22/2026POSITIVE
    What's Driving Seagate Technology Stock To All-Time Highs?

    Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:STX) experienced a significant surge on Wednesday, reaching all-time highs. This upward momentum is largely attributed to a wave of positive analyst ratings and coverage received throughout the week. The sustained bullish sentiment from financial analysts suggests a strong conviction in the company's future performance and market position. Investors are likely reacting to these endorsements, which often precede or accompany upward price movements, signaling confidence in Seagate's growth prospects and operational execution.

  • 4/8/2026NEUTRAL
    Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Seagate Technology Hldgs Stock In The Last 20 Years

    An analysis of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) stock performance over the past 20 years reveals a complex investment journey. While the article highlights the potential for significant returns, it also implies a historical perspective rather than a forward-looking trading signal. Investors would need to examine the specific returns, volatility, and underlying business drivers during that period to assess its current investment merit. The article serves as a retrospective look at shareholder value creation, not a direct recommendation for immediate action.

  • 4/6/2026POSITIVE
    This ‘overlooked’ AI stock is a new top pick at Morgan Stanley

    Morgan Stanley has identified Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) as a new top pick, suggesting the market is overlooking its significant recent gains. The investment bank's positive stance implies a belief in the company's continued growth potential, particularly within the AI sector. Investors who have not yet considered Seagate may find this analyst upgrade a compelling reason to re-evaluate the stock, potentially leading to increased demand and price appreciation.

  • 4/2/2026POSITIVE
    Seagate Shares Rise 3% After Key Trading Signal

    Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) experienced a notable surge, with its shares climbing 3% to an intraday high following the activation of a key trading signal. The positive momentum was observed when the stock reached a price of $415.81, indicating a strong investor response to this technical indicator. This price action suggests that the trading signal may have accurately predicted an upward movement, potentially driven by increased buying interest or a shift in market sentiment for STX. Investors will be watching to see if this trend continues.

via Markets Gazette