Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)
NEUTRALファンダメンタル
77
株価
$45.92
時価総額
$28.98B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Trip.com Group is China's largest online travel agency, operating under the Ctrip, Trip.com, Qunar and Skyscanner brands. It sells hotel rooms, flights, train tickets and packaged tours by aggregating supply from airlines, hotels and tour operators and letting travelers search and book in one place. Domestic China travel remains its core market, alongside a growing international business built through Trip.com and Skyscanner aimed at outbound Chinese travelers and non-Chinese customers.
収益の仕組み
Most revenue is commission and margin earned on each booking — a cut of the room rate, ticket price or package cost — plus service fees charged directly to travelers. A smaller and growing slice comes from online advertising sold to travel suppliers and from financial services such as installment payment plans for trips. Because it takes a percentage of transaction value rather than owning hotel rooms or planes, revenue moves closely with how much people spend on travel, not just how many trips they take.
セグメント別売上高
Commissions earned booking hotel rooms and other lodging for travelers, the company's largest revenue line.
Commissions and fees on flight, train and other transportation bookings made through the platform.
Mainly online advertising sold to travel suppliers and financial services tied to travel purchases.
Bundled trip packages combining transportation, lodging and guided activities sold as a single product.
Travel booking and management services sold to businesses for their employees' trips.
競争優位性（moat）
ネットワーク効果 · 狭いMore travel suppliers listing on the platform makes it more useful to travelers, and more travelers using it makes it more valuable for suppliers to list — the classic two-sided marketplace effect, reinforced in China by brand recognition built over two decades. It is narrow rather than wide because domestic rivals such as Meituan and Alibaba's travel arm, plus short-video platforms newly entering travel bookings, compete for the same suppliers and travelers.
需要を左右する要因
景気循環型Travel is one of the first expenses households and companies cut when income falls or uncertainty rises, and bookings can collapse almost overnight in the face of a pandemic, natural disaster or geopolitical event — as happened to the whole industry in 2020. Demand recovers with consumer confidence and disposable income rather than following a predictable seasonal pattern alone.
主なリスク
- Sensitivity to travel demand shocks — Pandemics, natural disasters and geopolitical disruption can suppress travel bookings suddenly and broadly, as the industry experienced in 2020, and such events are outside the company's control.
- Intense competition in China — Meituan, Alibaba's travel platforms, and short-video apps entering travel bookings all compete for the same Chinese travelers and travel suppliers.
- Chinese regulatory and data risk — As a China-based company with a U.S. listing, Trip.com is exposed to Chinese data-security and overseas-listing rules, as well as the broader legal uncertainty facing U.S.-listed Chinese companies.
- Reliance on supplier relationships — The platform depends on airlines, hotels and tour operators continuing to list competitive inventory and pricing; a shift in those relationships or supplier terms would affect what the platform can offer.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Trip.com's dominant position in China's recovering travel market, combined with a fast-growing international business built on the Trip.com and Skyscanner brands, gives it two separate growth engines while its scale and brand recognition make it the default booking choice for Chinese travelers.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that travel demand is inherently volatile and hostage to events outside the company's control, that domestic competition from Meituan and Alibaba keeps commission rates under pressure, and that Chinese regulatory risk adds a layer of uncertainty that has nothing to do with how well the travel business itself performs.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$59.85B
直近の公表四半期までの12か月 — 1株当たり指標からの推計
純利益
$28.55B
直近の公表四半期までの12か月 — 1株当たり指標からの推計
フリーキャッシュフロー
-
自己資本合計
$23.73B
負債合計
$31.37B
流動比率
1.53
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
1.85
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$103.76
現在株価
$45.92
安全マージン
+55.7%
適正価値レンジ
$67.44 - $140.07
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
1.01
ROE
20.1%
P/B レシオ
0.18
P/FCF
-
粗利益率
80.3%
ROIC
22.6%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
22.6%
WACC
8.7%
ROIC − WACC
+13.9 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（13）
- ROIC 22.6%
- Gross Margin 80.3%
- P/B Ratio 0.18
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 24.9%
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 19.3%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 27.8%
- Analyst Consensus 90% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 60.7%
- Net Margin Trend 53.3% vs 32.0%
不合格（3）
- Price CAGR 1.43%
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- Piotroski F-Score 0/9
データなし（11）
- EPS data insufficient
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-スコア
重大な財務上の懸念
利益の質
低品質：会計処理を調査してください
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Dr. Jianzhang Liang Ph.D. | Co-Founder & Executive Chairman | 55 |
| Ms. Jie Sun CPA | CEO & Director | 56 |
| Mr. Nanpeng Shen | Co-Founder & Independent Director | 58 |
| Ms. Xiaofan Wang CPA | CFO & Executive VP | 50 |
| Mr. Xiong Xing | Chief Operating Officer | 51 |
| Ms. Michelle Qi | Senior IR Director | - |
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for TCOM, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 29d agoNEGATIVETrip.com struck with $765 million penalty from China over monopoly allegations
China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has imposed a hefty $765 million penalty on Trip.com Group for alleged monopolistic practices. The regulator claims the online travel agency abused its dominant market position by preventing hotels from listing on rival platforms and enforcing exclusive partnership agreements. This significant fine underscores China's ongoing crackdown on anti-competitive behavior in the digital economy and could impact Trip.com's future growth and operational flexibility. Investors will be closely watching the company's response and any potential changes to its business model.
- 7/27/2026POSITIVETrip.com Shares Jump in Hong Kong as Regulatory Overhang Clears
Trip.com Group Ltd. shares surged in Hong Kong, marking their largest single-day gain in almost a year. This rally follows the resolution of a significant antitrust investigation, which, despite a substantial fine, concluded with an outcome largely in line with market expectations. The clearing of this regulatory overhang provides much-needed clarity for investors, alleviating a key concern that had been weighing on the stock. The company's ability to navigate these regulatory challenges while continuing operations is a positive sign for its future prospects and investor confidence.
- 7/27/2026NEGATIVETrip.com Fined in China Antitrust Case as Price Wars Continue
Trip.com Group Ltd. has been penalized with a multi-billion yuan fine by Chinese authorities, concluding a months-long antitrust investigation. This regulatory action, while significant, has not alleviated the intense price competition prevalent in China's domestic hotel market. The fine suggests increased regulatory scrutiny on major online travel agencies, potentially impacting future profitability and operational flexibility for Trip.com and its peers. Investors should monitor the company's response and any potential impact on its market share and pricing strategies.
- 5/25/2026POSITIVEHere's How Much $1000 Invested In Trip.com Group 20 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
An investment of $1000 in Trip.com Group (TCOM) made 20 years ago would have grown to approximately $13,700 today, representing a substantial 1270% return. This impressive growth underscores the company's strong performance and expansion in the online travel sector over the past two decades. The surge in value highlights TCOM's resilience and ability to capitalize on market trends, making it a notable performer for long-term investors.
- 1/22/2026NEUTRALChina Internet: The Late Tuition Bill
China's recent antitrust probe into Trip.com has reignited investor concerns about a potential return to the stringent regulatory environment seen in 2021. However, this development is assessed as likely representing the conclusion of the prior regulatory cycle rather than the initiation of a new one. The "Class of 2021" companies, which faced significant regulatory scrutiny, may see this as a final, albeit delayed, repercussion. Investors are advised that capital is at risk, and this analysis is for informational purposes only.
via Markets Gazette