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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

NEUTRAL
Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailUnited States

ファンダメンタル

59

株価

$35.59

時価総額

$18.23B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Tractor Supply is the largest US retail chain built specifically around rural life: farm and ranch supplies, animal feed, fencing, work clothing and outdoor equipment, sold through more than 2,600 stores mostly in small towns rather than big cities. Many of its customers are not full-time farmers but suburban and exurban households keeping chickens, horses or a large garden — a lifestyle market rather than a strictly agricultural one.

収益の仕組み

Revenue comes from selling physical merchandise in stores, with a growing share fulfilled through the website and picked up or delivered from the same store network. Margins depend on running a large, efficient supply chain for bulky, low-margin staples like feed and fencing alongside higher-margin discretionary categories like clothing and seasonal goods, and on keeping stores in towns too small to attract a second dedicated rural retailer.

セグメント別売上高

Livestock, Equine & Agriculture27%

Feed for livestock and horses, poultry supplies, fencing and sprayers and chemicals — the category tied most closely to actual farming and ranching.

Companion Animal24%

Pet food and supplies, mainly for dogs and cats, sold in bulk sizes suited to rural and suburban households.

Seasonal & Recreation24%

Lawn and garden equipment, heating and generators, and outdoor recreation items whose demand shifts with the seasons and weather.

Truck, Tool & Hardware15%

Hand and power tools, hardware and truck accessories for maintenance work around a property.

Clothing, Gift & Décor10%

Work and outdoor clothing plus home and gift items, the most discretionary and fashion-sensitive part of the mix.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

Tractor Supply's network of small-town stores and the supply chain built to stock them profitably are hard for a new entrant to replicate quickly, and in many of its towns there is no comparably sized rural retailer nearby. That advantage is real but not absolute: general merchandisers, home centers, pet chains and online sellers all compete for pieces of its assortment.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

A large part of the assortment — feed, fencing, basic supplies for animals people already own — is recurring and not very discretionary, which cushions the business in a downturn. But categories like seasonal equipment, clothing and big-ticket outdoor gear are more sensitive to household budgets and weather, so overall demand moves moderately with the economy rather than staying flat.

主なリスク

  • Competition across many retail formats — The company competes at once with general merchandisers, home centers, pet retailers, regional farm-store chains, farm cooperatives and online sellers, any of which can undercut it in a given category.
  • Weather and seasonal sensitivity — Sales of seasonal and recreation merchandise depend on weather patterns being roughly normal; an unusually mild winter or wet spring can directly reduce demand for entire product categories.
  • Comparable store sales fluctuation — Growth depends heavily on existing stores selling more each year; a slowdown in comparable sales, from softer consumer spending or local competition, hits results quickly since new-store growth alone cannot offset it.
  • Tariffs and import cost exposure — A meaningful part of the merchandise sold is imported, so changes in tariffs or trade policy can raise the cost of goods faster than prices can be adjusted for customers.
  • Cybersecurity and system disruption — The company relies on connected point-of-sale, e-commerce and supply chain systems across thousands of locations; a cyberattack or major system failure could disrupt sales and expose customer data.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Tractor Supply's small-town store footprint faces little direct competition locally, that the mix of recurring farm staples and discretionary lifestyle goods has produced years of steady comparable-sales growth, and that the company keeps opening new stores profitably in a niche the biggest retailers do not chase.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that comparable-store sales growth has been slowing as the store base matures, that discretionary categories like seasonal goods and clothing are exposed to a squeezed consumer, and that big-box and online retailers keep chipping away at categories once considered Tractor Supply's own.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$15.52B

2025/12/27に終了した会計年度

純利益

$1.10B

2025/12/27に終了した会計年度

フリーキャッシュフロー

$740M

自己資本合計

$2.58B

負債合計

$8.35B

流動比率

1.33

利払い倍率

21.22

負債/EBITDA

4.44

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

適正価値

適正価値

$40.27

現在株価

$35.59

安全マージン

+11.6%

適正価値レンジ

$27.14 - $53.41

推定方法

Analyst Target:$35.52
DCF:$60.81
PE-based:$28.39
Graham Growth:$48.36
EPV:$25.23
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (20B / 17H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:-2.61%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

16.98

ROE

42.5%

P/B レシオ

7.11

P/FCF

60.97

粗利益率

36.4%

ROIC

13.9%

収益性レーダー

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

13.9%

WACC

5.7%

ROIC − WACC

+8.3 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 8.72%
  • ROIC 13.9%
  • Gross Margin 36.4%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 9.5%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 39.3%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 7.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 54% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.86
  • Share Dilution -1.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

不合格(8)

  • EPS CAGR 2.13%
  • P/FCF 60.97
  • P/B Ratio 7.11
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -5.8%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.68

データなし(2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Net Margin Trend (invalid data)

Piotroski F-スコア

6/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

0.68

中程度:利益とキャッシュの間にギャップがある

株式希薄化

-1.4%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Harry A. Lawton IIIPresident, CEO & Director51
Mr. Kurt D. Barton CPAExecutive VP, CFO & Treasurer53
Mr. John P. OrdusExecutive VP & Chief Stores Officer48
Mr. Jonathan Seth EstepExecutive VP & Chief Merchandising Officer45
Ms. Mary Winn PilkingtonSenior Vice President of Investor Relations & Public Relations-
Mr. Thomas J. Sabatino Jr.Interim General Counsel & Corporate Secretary66
Ms. Kimberley S. GardinerSenior VP & Chief Marketing Officer56
Ms. Melissa D. KerseyExecutive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer50
Mr. Matthew L. RubinSenior Vice President & President of Digital44
Mr. Nicole LoganSenior Vice President & General Merchandise Manager-

監査リスク

3

取締役会リスク

2

報酬リスク

9

株主権利リスク

1

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

Latest News

Recent headlines for TSCO, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 4/26/2026NEGATIVE
    Tractor Supply, Lululemon, and Northrop Grumman Are Among Top 10 Large-Cap Losers Last Week (April 20-April 24): Are The Others In Your Portfolio?

    Tractor Supply Company was among the top 10 large-cap stock losers last week, experiencing a significant slide from April 20th to April 24th. This decline is attributed to broader market pressures including earnings misses, weak forward guidance from various companies, and a wave of analyst downgrades across multiple sectors. Investors should note that such broad-based negative sentiment can impact even fundamentally sound companies, signaling potential headwinds for the retail and consumer discretionary sectors.

  • 4/21/2026NEGATIVE
    What's Going On With Tractor Supply Stock Today?

    Tractor Supply Company experienced a stock decline following its first-quarter financial report, which revealed that both earnings and sales fell short of analyst expectations. Despite reporting modest year-over-year growth and maintaining its full-year financial outlook, the miss in quarterly performance has weighed on investor sentiment. The company's ability to meet future targets will be closely scrutinized as it navigates current market conditions.

  • 3/12/2026POSITIVE
    Under $50, Is Tractor Supply Stock a Buy?

    Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is presenting a potential buying opportunity despite near-term sales pressures. The company's strategic focus on non-discretionary items, crucial for the rural lifestyle consumer, positions it favorably for long-term resilience. While current sales may be experiencing headwinds, the pullback in stock price, potentially below $50, could be an attractive entry point for investors. The company's ability to cater to essential needs within its target demographic suggests a robust business model that can weather short-term economic fluctuations, making it a candidate for strategic accumulation.

via Markets Gazette