Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)
POSITIVEファンダメンタル
76
株価
$28.09
時価総額
$14.19B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Warner Music Group signs recording artists and songwriters, then owns or controls the rights to their recordings and compositions for decades. Recorded Music, built around labels like Atlantic and Warner Records, earns royalties whenever a song streams, plays or sells. Music Publishing owns the underlying songwriting rights and collects a separate royalty whenever those songs are performed, synced into film and TV, or recorded by anyone. It is one of only three companies — alongside Universal and Sony — that control most of the world's recorded music catalog.
収益の仕組み
Streaming is the dominant source of revenue: digital services pay Warner a share of subscription and advertising revenue, or a per-stream rate, based on negotiated licensing deals. Because the company owns decades of back catalog, much of this income keeps arriving with little new spending — an old hit streamed today still pays a royalty today. Music Publishing works the same way but on the composition side, collecting whenever a song is used, not just when the original recording plays.
セグメント別売上高
Owning and licensing sound recordings from artists on Atlantic, Warner Records and other labels, monetized through streaming, downloads and physical sales.
Owning songwriting and composition rights, collecting royalties when songs are performed, synced to film and TV, or covered by other artists.
競争優位性（moat）
特許・ライセンス · 狭いA catalog of owned master recordings and publishing rights keeps paying royalties for decades after the original spending on an artist, which a new entrant cannot buy quickly. But Warner competes against two labels of similar scale, Universal and Sony, so the advantage comes from being one of few, not from being unique.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性Music streaming subscriptions are a relatively small, sticky household expense that tends to survive economic downturns better than discretionary entertainment spending, so demand is fairly resilient. Advertising-supported streaming and physical/merchandise sales are more exposed to consumer spending cycles, and a weak year for new superstar releases can also soften growth independent of the economy.
主なリスク
- Dependence on a few streaming platforms — Spotify, Google/YouTube and Apple together accounted for about 43% of fiscal 2025 revenue; a change in their pricing or royalty terms could materially reduce revenue.
- Digital piracy — The company identifies organized, industrial-scale piracy as a continuing threat that diverts listening away from paid and licensed channels.
- Retaining artists and songwriters — Future growth depends on signing and keeping successful recording artists and songwriters, and on having superstar releases in any given year — neither of which is guaranteed.
- Rates set by regulators and collecting societies — A meaningful share of revenue is subject to rates set by government bodies or local collecting societies rather than freely negotiated, which can cap profitability regardless of demand.
顧客集中度
主要顧客が売上高の43%を占める
A limited number of digital music services — Spotify, Google/YouTube and Apple among them — together accounted for approximately 43% of fiscal 2025 revenue, so a dispute with any one of them is not a minor event.
強気材料
Buyers argue that owning a decades-deep catalog of masters and publishing rights produces royalties with almost no incremental cost, that streaming still has room to grow globally, and that being one of only three major labels gives Warner real leverage in negotiating terms with platforms.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that a handful of streaming platforms have enough bargaining power to squeeze per-stream payouts over time, that piracy and rate-regulated income cap upside, and that a run of weak new releases can hurt results in ways a deep catalog cannot fully offset.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$7.30B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$672M
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$539M
自己資本合計
$647M
負債合計
$9.07B
流動比率
0.73
利払い倍率
5.52
負債/EBITDA
4.60
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$2104991.20
現在株価
$28.09
安全マージン
+100.0%
適正価値レンジ
$1368244.40 - $2841738.20
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
28.61
ROE
56.4%
P/B レシオ
0.00
P/FCF
0.00
粗利益率
45.8%
ROIC
12.6%
収益性レーダー
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
12.6%
WACC
9.6%
ROIC − WACC
+3.0 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（16）
- ROIC 12.6%
- Gross Margin 45.8%
- P/FCF 0.00
- P/B Ratio 0.00
- Operating Margin 13.7%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 67.1%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 8.5%
- Analyst Consensus 78% Buy
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.40
- Net Margin Trend 9.2% vs 4.6%
不合格（6）
- Price CAGR -5.46%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Current Ratio
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Earnings Surprise avg -2.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
データなし（5）
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル：一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Robert Kyncl | President, CEO & Director | 54 |
| Ms. Carletta Higginson | Executive VP & Chief Digital Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Armin Zerza | Executive Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Guy Moot | Co-Chair & CEO of Warner Chappell Music | 59 |
| Ms. Carianne Marshall | Co-Chair & COO of Warner Chappell Music | 47 |
| Mr. Louis Dickler | Acting CFO, Senior VP, Global Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Tom Corson | Chief Operating Officer | - |
| Mr. Leho Nigul | Chief Technology Officer | - |
| Mr. Kareem Chin | Senior VP & Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Paul Martin Robinson Esq., J.D. | Executive VP & General Counsel | 67 |
監査リスク
4
取締役会リスク
9
報酬リスク
8
株主権利リスク
10
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for WMG, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 5/8/2026POSITIVEWarner Music Hits All The Right Notes With Blowout Quarter, Analyst Says More Growth Ahead
Warner Music Group (WMG) shares surged following a robust Q2 performance that significantly surpassed Wall Street's expectations for both earnings and revenue. The company's strong growth in streaming services, coupled with notable margin expansion, has positioned it favorably. This blowout quarter, highlighted by positive analyst ratings including an initiation of coverage with a 'Buy' from Deutsche Bank and an 'Outperform' from Credit Suisse, suggests continued upward momentum. Investors are likely to see this as a strong indicator of WMG's operational efficiency and market resilience, potentially driving further stock appreciation.
- 4/1/2026POSITIVEWarner Music Targets Indie Boom With Revelator Buyout
Warner Music Group (WMG) has announced the acquisition of Revelator, a music technology company specializing in rights management and label services. This strategic move aims to bolster WMG's capabilities in serving independent artists and labels, enhancing its digital infrastructure for royalty distribution and metadata management. The acquisition is expected to streamline operations and unlock new revenue streams within the rapidly growing independent music sector. For investors, this acquisition signals WMG's commitment to innovation and expansion in a key growth area, potentially leading to increased market share and improved profitability.
via Markets Gazette