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Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (BAYRY)

NEUTRAL
HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralGermany

基本面

60

价格

$49.26

市值

$46.97B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Bayer runs three separate businesses under one roof: seeds and crop-protection chemicals sold to farmers, prescription drugs sold through healthcare systems, and over-the-counter health products such as vitamins and pain relievers sold directly to consumers. The three have little in common operationally — different customers, regulators and sales channels — and are grouped together mainly for historical reasons, which is why Bayer has repeatedly weighed splitting them apart.

盈利方式

Crop Science sells seeds and chemicals to farmers and distributors on a seasonal cycle tied to planting calendars, so revenue is lumpy through the year and sensitive to weather and crop prices. Pharmaceuticals earns money when hospitals, pharmacies and health insurers buy prescription drugs, with prices and volumes shaped by each country's reimbursement system rather than by open retail pricing. Consumer Health sells packaged over-the-counter products through retailers at ordinary retail margins, the most straightforward of the three revenue streams.

分部营收

Crop Science47.4%

Seeds, herbicides, fungicides and other crop-protection products sold to farmers worldwide; the largest of Bayer's three divisions.

Pharmaceuticals39.1%

Prescription drugs sold through healthcare systems, covering areas including cardiology, oncology and women's health.

Consumer Health12.7%

Over-the-counter brands such as vitamins, allergy and pain-relief products sold directly to consumers through retailers.

护城河

专利与许可 · 狭窄

Patented seed traits and drugs under patent protection give temporary pricing power in Crop Science and Pharmaceuticals, but that protection expires and competitors sell generic or biosimilar equivalents once it does. Consumer Health brands carry some loyalty but compete against store brands and other established names, so none of the three divisions has a durable, wide advantage on its own.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Crop Science demand depends on farmers' planting decisions, which swing with crop prices and weather and can be genuinely cyclical in a bad year. Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Health are steadier, since people keep taking prescribed medicines and buying basic health products in most economic conditions, which offsets some of the agricultural volatility at the group level.

主要风险

  • Glyphosate litigation — Bayer carries billions of euros in provisions for lawsuits alleging its glyphosate-based Roundup herbicide causes cancer, and paid roughly $1.3 billion in settlements and judgments in 2025 alone; the final cost of resolving remaining and future claims is still uncertain.
  • Patent expirations — Both Crop Science and Pharmaceuticals rely on patent-protected products for their best margins, and once a patent expires generic or biosimilar competitors typically erode price and volume quickly.
  • Regulatory and reimbursement risk — Crop-protection products face ongoing regulatory review that can restrict or ban active ingredients in some markets, while pharmaceutical prices depend on reimbursement decisions by governments and insurers that can change with little notice.

看多理由

Buyers argue that the glyphosate litigation is closer to its end than its beginning after large settlements were reached, that the pharmaceutical pipeline can refill as older drugs lose patent protection, and that the sum of three global, essential businesses is worth more than the market allows while the legal overhang lasts.

看空理由

Sellers worry that litigation costs and provisions could keep growing beyond what has already been set aside, that key drugs face patent cliffs without fully proven replacements, and that running three unrelated global businesses under one roof dilutes management focus compared with more focused pure-play competitors.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$45.38B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$-1.74B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$6.56B

股东权益合计

$29.58B

负债合计

$38.43B

流动比率

1.04

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

3.79

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

合理估值

公允价值

$56.13

当前价格

$49.26

安全边际

+12.2%

公允价值区间

$36.49 - $75.78

估算方法

Analyst Target:$56.83
DCF:$104.53
PE-based:-
Graham Growth:-
EPV:$6.69
分析师共识:强力买入 (23B / 5H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+14.80%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

-

ROE

-5.7%

市净率(P/B)

1.59

P/FCF

7.16

毛利率

60.5%

ROIC

4.8%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

4.8%

WACC

6.2%

ROIC − WACC

-1.4 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

基本面分析标准

通过(10)

  • Gross Margin 60.5%
  • P/FCF 7.16
  • P/B Ratio 1.59
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 82% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 28.3%

未通过(7)

  • Price CAGR -7.13%
  • ROIC 4.8%
  • CapEx intensity
  • ROE -6.1%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 1.9%
  • Net Margin Trend -7.9% vs -5.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(10)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

-

低质量:需深入审查会计处理

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. William N. AndersonChairman of the Management Board & CEO59
Mr. Stefan OelrichPresident of the Pharmaceuticals Division & Member of the Board of Management57
Ms. Heike PrinzChief Talent Officer, Labor Director & Member of Management Board61
Dr. Judith HartmannCFO & Member of Management Board56
Mr. Rodrigo SantosMember of Management Board, Head of the Crop Science Division & President of Crop Science Division52
Mr. Julio TrianaMember of Management Board & President of Consumer Health Division60
Mr. Alex BuschermohleChief Information Officer, Head-Digital Transformation & IT-Crop Science Division-
Ms. Jana Marlen AckermannHead of the Investor Relations41
Mr. Bill DoderoGeneral Counsel and Senior VP of Law Patents & Compliance-
Mr. Michael PreussHead of Communications, Government Relations and Corporate Brand-

审计风险

6

董事会风险

1

薪酬风险

2

股东权利风险

1

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

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