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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)

NEUTRAL
IndustrialsRailroadsCanada

基本面

53

价格

$95.41

市值

$83.62B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Canadian Pacific Kansas City runs a single freight railway connecting Canada, the United States and Mexico under one network — the only one of its kind since the 2023 merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern. It hauls bulk commodities such as grain, coal and potash, merchandise freight like forest products, chemicals, metals and automotive parts, and intermodal containers, moving goods over track it owns rather than shares with competitors.

盈利方式

Revenue comes from freight rates charged per carload or container, which vary by commodity, distance and contract terms; some grain traffic in western Canada is capped by a government-set revenue formula rather than freely negotiated. Because the railway owns its own track, most operating costs are fixed regardless of volume, so profit is highly sensitive to how much freight actually moves over the network rather than to price alone.

分部营收

Merchandise46%

Forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products and automotive parts — the largest and most varied freight category. Share of freight revenue.

Bulk36%

Grain, coal, potash and fertilizers moved in unit trains — commodities produced in large, predictable volumes. Share of freight revenue.

Intermodal18%

Containers moved between ports, terminals and customers, competing directly with long-haul trucking. Share of freight revenue.

护城河

成本优势 · 宽阔

Building a second transcontinental railway alongside an existing one is not economically rational, so CPKC's track competes against trucking more than against another railway on most routes. Owning the only single-line network connecting Canada, the US and Mexico after the Kansas City Southern merger gives it routes competitors cannot simply build to match.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Demand is a mix: grain and potash volumes follow harvests and global agricultural demand more than the economic cycle, while merchandise freight — automotive parts, metals, chemicals — and intermodal containers move with industrial production and consumer spending. That blend cushions the network against a single downturn, but currency swings and fuel prices still move margins on every shipment.

主要风险

  • Dependence on key suppliers — The company depends on a limited number of suppliers for core railway equipment and materials, and disruption within the broader supply chain — ports, terminals, other railways — can hurt operating efficiency and raise costs.
  • Fuel price volatility — Fuel is a significant share of operating costs. A fuel cost adjustment program mitigates but does not eliminate exposure to sharp price swings from supply shortages or geopolitical disruption.
  • Three-currency exposure — Operating across Canada, the US and Mexico exposes results to swings in the Canadian dollar, US dollar and Mexican peso, and debt taken on for the Kansas City Southern acquisition limits financial flexibility.
  • Merger integration risk — The company may fail to fully realize the cost savings, growth opportunities and synergies expected from the Kansas City Southern merger, and remains subject to continuing regulatory obligations from that transaction.

客户集中度

The company states that for both 2025 and 2024 its revenues and operations were not dependent on any major customer — freight volume is spread across many shippers and commodities.

看多理由

Buyers argue that being the only railway with a single-line route from Canada through the US to Mexico gives CPKC network advantages competitors cannot replicate, and that a freight mix spread across bulk, merchandise and intermodal, with no dependence on any single customer, makes revenue more resilient than a typical industrial company's.

看空理由

Sellers fear that the debt taken on for the Kansas City Southern merger, exposure to three currencies, and dependence on diesel fuel leave margins vulnerable to macro shocks outside the company's control, and that realizing the promised synergies from combining two railways takes longer or costs more than planned.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$15.45B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$3.86B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

-

股东权益合计

$46.83B

负债合计

$39.12B

流动比率

0.59

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

3.05

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

被高估

公允价值

$75.21

当前价格

$95.41

安全边际

-26.9%

公允价值区间

$56.13 - $94.29

估算方法

Analyst Target:$101.30
DCF:$61.38
PE-based:$68.01
Graham Growth:$48.82
EPV:$60.32
分析师共识:强力买入 (29B / 6H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:-0.36%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

21.97

ROE

8.8%

市净率(P/B)

1.75

P/FCF

-

毛利率

-

ROIC

5.4%

盈利能力雷达图

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

5.4%

WACC

6.9%

ROIC − WACC

-1.5 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

基本面分析标准

通过(14)

  • Price CAGR 12.97%
  • ROIC 5.4%
  • P/B Ratio 1.75
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 36.8%
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 8.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 14.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 83% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.42
  • Share Dilution -1.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

未通过(8)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -6.74%
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -3.7%
  • PEG Ratio 6.29
  • Net Margin Trend 27.4% vs 31.2%

不可用(6)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-评分

6/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.42

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-1.5%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Keith E. CreelCEO, President & Director56
Mr. Nadeem S. VelaniExecutive VP & CFO52
Mr. Mark A. ReddExecutive VP & COO54
Mr. John Kenneth BrooksExecutive VP & Chief Marketing Officer54
Mr. James Dominic Luther ClementsExecutive Vice-President of Strategic Planning & Corporate Services55
Ms. Pamela Lynne ArpinSenior VP & Chief Information Officer49
Ms. Cassandra P. QuachVP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary51
Ms. Maeghan AlbistonSenior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer42
Mr. Laird Joseph PitzSenior VP & Chief Risk Officer80
Corey HeinzManaging Director of Asia-

审计风险

3

董事会风险

2

薪酬风险

8

股东权利风险

3

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

Recent headlines for CP, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/15/2026POSITIVE
    $1000 Invested In Canadian Pacific Kansas 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) made 15 years ago would have grown substantially, highlighting the company's strong long-term performance. While specific figures are not provided in the title, such a scenario typically implies significant capital appreciation and potentially dividend reinvestment over the period. This underscores CP's historical ability to generate value for shareholders, driven by factors such as operational efficiency, strategic acquisitions (like the Kansas City Southern merger), and its critical role in North American supply chains. Investors considering long-term holdings may find this historical performance indicative of future potential.

  • 6/11/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $1000 In Canadian Pacific Kansas Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) stock twenty years ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the long-term growth potential of the railway operator. While specific figures are not provided in this summary, the article implies significant capital appreciation and potential dividend reinvestment over two decades. This historical performance underscores CP's resilience and ability to generate value for shareholders through operational efficiency and strategic acquisitions, making it a noteworthy consideration for long-term portfolio strategies.

via Markets Gazette